Ruminations

Blog dedicated primarily to randomly selected news items; comments reflecting personal perceptions

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Peace In Our Time

"Today we are making another concrete, real peace proposal. If Kyiv and the Western capitals refuse it, as before, then in the end, that's their business and their political and moral responsibility for the continuation of bloodshed."
"The essence of our proposal is not some kind of temporary truce or suspension of fire, as the West would want it to restore losses, rearm the Kyiv regime, prepare it for a new offensive."
"I repeat, we are not talking about freezing the conflict but about ending it."
"Without Russia's participation [in the Swiss-led peace summit for Ukraine], without an honest and responsible dialogue with us, it is impossible to reach a peaceful solution in Ukraine, and in general regarding global and European security. [The conference is] just another ploy to divert everyone's attention."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

"This is not a peace plan but a series of maximalist demands directed at the West and Ukraine in exchange for ending hostilities."
"Moscow offers no concessions; there is no scope for compromise."
"Moscow views the Swiss conference as an escalating action against Russia, an effort to solidify an anti-Russian stance globally, and the Kremlin is determined to thwart this."
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder, R.Politik, Russian political consultancy, France-based
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Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with the leadership of the Russian foreign ministry in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
 
According to Vladimir Putin's calculations, peace is just around the corner. All that has to be done is for Kyiv to agree to the surrender to Moscow of four southeastern regions partially occupied by Russian troops. And while they're at it, they must renounce any ambitions to join NATO. That done -- and a few other incidentals, Moscow would "immediately" halt all hostilities and negotiations could seriously begin to put to rest the 'special military operation' Russia was forced to engage it, as a result of realities beyond its control to ignore; namely neo-Nazism in Ukraine.

As a sign of goodwill to Ukrainians, Russia entered Ukraine to liberate the people from the fascism of their government. And what thanks did they get? Sanctions. Of course as far as Kyiv is concerned the demands put to them by Putin represent capitulation and the loss of over a fifth of Ukraine's sovereign territory, which of course includes the Crimean Peninsula annexed by Russian decree in 2014.

That irresistible offer by Vladimir Putin prefaced the international peace conference taking place in Switzerland over the weekend where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was to reiterate his plea for Russia's complete withdrawal of military forces marking the conclusion of Moscow's Ukraine occupation. War reparations, that too, of course. Kyiv appears not to have fallen head-over-heels in love with Putin's points that included demanding Ukraine's "neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear status".
 
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In holding the summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy seeks to rally a greater number of countries behind Ukraine's cause, especially those from the so-called Global South, and maintain world attention on Russia's brutal invasion.
 
That, despite Moscow delivering nuclear emplacements to Belarus, bordering Ukraine, boxing the beleaguered country in with both Russian and Belarus nuclear threats. Oh yes, there's more of course, the demand that all Western sanctions against Russia be lifted. And Russia would retain the right to its ongoing "de-nazifying and demilitarizing" of Ukraine. Translation: Ukraine's unconditional surrender to Russian fascist imperialism; aka a return to USSR status in Eastern Europe.

According to a recent survey, over 90 percent of the Ukrainian public believe Russia is invested in entering peace negotiations to allow time for Moscow to prepare yet another attack. Interpreting Putin's offer for peace on Moscow's rigid terms, independent analysts remarked on the no-compromise or
-concessions condition of the cessation of 'hostilities'. 

Vladimir Putin made it abundantly clear previously that Russia had no intention, ever of voluntarily surrendering territory it annexed in the occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Not all the territory that Russia claims is under its control. Should Ukraine surrender on the stated terms put forward by Putin, it would effectively cede Russia more territory than it occupies at the present time. The offer is what is known as an absurdly risible 'non-starter'.

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Peace conference attendees   Stansstad, June 15, 2024. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
"Russia does not have a lot of allies in this particular situation. It has a number of states that are susceptible to being pressured, and a few that actually wish to stand aside, from what they see as a northern, U.S.-Russia, NATO-Russia confrontation."
"I don't think anybody is particularly deluded that this [the Peace summit for Ukraine] is going to give birth to a new peace plan, or even to some kind of agreement that stops the hostilities on the battlefield."
"But as past wars have shown, including as far back as World War II, discussions about the contours of the peace begin long before the fighting stops on the battlefield."
Keith Krause, professor of international security studies, Graduate Institute, Geneva

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