Canada, Security Intelligence Violent Risk Assessment

"Although this incident [Trump assassination attempt] will embolden violent rhetoric toward Canadian public officials, an inspired attack against an office holder is unlikely at this time."

"Individuals contributing to hatred and harassment against Canadian public officials will likely cite the attempted assassination in conspiracy theories and rhetoric."

"Threats to public officials in Canada could intensify over the next 12 - 16 months in the lead-up to provincial and federal elections."

Canadian Security Intelligence Service, (CSIS) integrated terrorism assessment centre report

 

"[Threat assessments are based] on classified and open-source information [aiming to provide senior government officials with the most recent information on threats to protect against] violent extremism [with efforts underway  to develop] unclassified assessments [to increase general awareness]."

"Incidents such as the assassination attempt against former president Donald Trump ... could incite individuals to contribute to hatred and harassment toward Canadian public officials."

"The threat environment facing elected officials is growing increasingly complex [and the service] will not hesitate [to advise the government how to reduce risks]."

"Violent rhetoric toward Canadian public officials will increase during the next election campaign."

"Prominent attacks against public officials in the U.S. and Europe suggest that such violence is becoming increasingly normalized and accepted within mainstream political and social spheres."

Intelligence service CSIS spokesman, John Townsend 

In Ottawa, questions are being raised about whether cabinet ministers and members of Parliament need tighter security measures after the verbal attack on Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland in Alberta.

 

According to the latest assessment by Canada's federal organization authorized to assess terrorism threats, the potential for violence against Canadian leaders following the attempt on former President Trump's life in Pennsylvania at a July13 rally, led intelligence officials to conclude through their analysis a heightened risk of danger had not resulted despite that "extremists in this country could use the event to justify violence against Parliamentarians" in Canada.

The lead-up to the next election scheduled to take place on October 2025 is seen as an event precipitating violent incitement, although conceivably, given the minority Liberal government and the strength of the official opposition, a general election could occur at a sooner date. Decisions respecting protection of federal elected officials, noted the spokesman for the intelligence service, fall under the assigned jurisdiction of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police which CSIS works in close collaboration with.

The intelligence brief nonetheless reached the conclusion that an act of violent extremism remains a "realistic probability". Based in the reality that attacks against elected officials have become more predictable against politicians in both Europe and the United States. Aside from the attempted assassination of Donald Trump in the United States, another attempt was made against Slovakia Prime Minister Robert Fico, shot while greeting supporters back in May. These speak to the "vulnerabilities to low-sophistication threat actors even for officials with security measures" in place.

 

Electronic panic buttons have been made available to MPs, and some are already carrying them, as serious threats against politicians have increased.

 

American lawmakers characterized the shooting of the Republican candidate a failure of dependability  on the part of the Secret Service, given the inescapable fact that the gunman had been able to access the roof of a building in close proximity to where the podium where former president Trump spoke, at the Pennsylvania rally, bringing him an advantage of site and sight, culminating in the shooter's near-success through accessing a position that enabled him to wound, but not kill the former president.

Though the gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, was finally shot on site soon after firing at Trump, one of his bullets grazed the former president's ear, and tragically another volley of shots killed an individual at the rally, and injured two others. Security measures in Canada for prominent politicians, pointed out the report, would "mitigate most threats", since those at potential risk are "well protected" by security measures. Which, in fact, would have been the assessment conclusion of American intelligence prior to the assassination attempt respecting protection of their own elected officials.

"This incident will resonate with individuals and groups who do not believe that the democratic process will produce the changes they desire", intelligence officials noted in the report. In the past year, RCMP commissioner Mike Duheme repeatedly raised concerns over the rise in threats against elected officials in the belief that a change to the Criminal Code is needed to allow police to lay charges more easily against individuals uttering threats, including online.

 

Pro-Palestinian demonstrators outside the fenced in area of an encampment on the University of Toronto campus on May 2, 2024, in Canada. Photo by Cole Burston/AFP via Getty Images.

 

The commissioner stated that police agencies in Canada have faced new challenges in laying hate speech charges against protesters accused of making hateful and antisemitic statements. Similar challenges are faced when tackling threats against politicians. "A lot of the things that we're seeing in the social media space does not always necessarily meet the threshhold for a criminal offence when it comes to hate speech or a type of crime", he observed. "When it comes to protecting elected officials and government officials ... there's more work that can be done."

When demonstrators appeared at the home of Justice Minister Arif Virani, to protest the Liberal government's response to the Israel-Hamas war, the minister spoke out publicly. No arrests were made on that occasion, although Toronto police said they were aware of the incident. Toronto municipal authorities have hesitated to authorize the Toronto Police Service to respond to countless and ongoing incidents of threatening hate crimes expressed at anti-Israel, pro-Hamas hate rallies. 

 

There is an obvious gap between concern over hate-filled rhetoric aimed at an ethnic/religious/cultural/social minority in Canada about which nothing has been done to stop the harassment that is certainly in the violent, racist category of threats. Simply because nothing has been done to address the threats, and socially disruptive activities of hate-mongers espousing 'pro-Palestinian' support, lack of authorized action has encouraged the mobs to more vociferous threats, greater intrusions into peoples' lives, and outright criminal acts for which no law and order remedy has yet been seen.

Anti-Israeli demonstrators wave Palestinian flags during a protest in Toronto (Cole Burston / AFP)