COVID Lockdown in Lock-Step With Diminished Crime

"[The COVID-19 pandemic is] the largest criminological experiment in history. It's like a natural lab [and the public its test subjects]."                                              "'The stay-at-home' mandates brought about the most wide reaching, significant, and sudden alteration of the lives of billions of people in human history." "Practically overnight, the entire country ceased or significantly reduced day-to-day travels, eliminating commutes from home to work, as well as leisure activities, shopping trips, social gatherings, the ability to dine out, and more."               "Across the United States and around the world, a positive byproduct of these unprecedented events is a dramatic drop in crime rates." "                                   The basic population didn't change. The racial composition of communities remained the same. Poverty and inequality did not disappear or increase overnight. There is not much change in the basic social structure."                                             "So this is a natural test of the routine activity approach."                                             Marcus Felson, criminology professor, Texas State University

Jason Overbo, owner of the Brooklyn Clothing Co. in Vancouver, has had two break-ins at his store since the COVID-19 crisis began. (Maggie MacPherson/CBC)

"We saw a drop in motor vehicle collisions and impaired driving offences as people were staying home. Other trends we saw were increases in stunt driving offences, as well as a rise in domestic incidents. We attribute the rise in family domestic incidents to more people being at home with one another for long periods of time as they were isolating."                                                                                            "In the past week we have had three homicides in York Region where the victims were shot. We have been seeing an increase in impaired driving incidents again as people return to socializing and consuming alcohol or drugs in places other than their homes."                                                                                                       "Since July, as the province reopens and things start to get back to the new normal, we are seeing crime on the rise back to historical levels."                                         Sgt. Andy Pattenden, York Regional Police, Ontario

"Break-and-enters in particular have declined and, while I couldn't directly attribute it specifically to     COVID, I think it could be argued with more people at home there are less likely to be break-ins."                                                                         Toronto police spokeswoman Connie Osborne

"The pandemic certainly has [done] some collateral damage to folks' levels of stress and strain. For some, this may manifest into violent behaviour." "For most, this is not likely to show up in severe acts of violence."                                          Adam Vaughan, Canadian health criminologist, Texas State University

Some Canadian police forces report increases, decreases in crimes. (David Donnelly/CBC)

Dr.Felson has a long acquaintanceship with crime. He created the "routine activity theory" of crime over 40 years ago, representing an understanding of criminology away from focusing on offenders, instead a move to understand why crime occurs, and to study the circumstances which lead to crime. Crime, according to Dr.Felson's premise, occurs when three sets of circumstances converge; a capable offender, a suitable target, and the absence of an appropriate guardian; somewhat like crime-dependent-on-opportunity. Lacking a deterrent element, crime is a circumstantial occurrence dependent on crime-favourable conditions.

With the sudden appearance of a dread pathogen that has roiled the world community, the perfect confluence of circumstances has arisen to produce a living laboratory whereby Professor Felson sees an opportunity of rare proportions and circumstance to prove his generally accepted theory. Global data is now available which without the presence of COVID-19 never would be possible. With the entry of the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing the novel coronavirus to strike at will, necessitating lockdown conditions, that opportunity arose.

At last his theory could be tested in an aura of emergency isolation orders, border closures, social distancing regulations and mandated lockdowns. All unsettlingly inconvenient and upsetting to the natural order of civic life as we know it, but a godsend to a professional criminologist who has staked his professional reputation on an educated theory which could now be put to the test. An answer to why crime occurs, how to predict its occurrence and how to reduce its impact.

Sgt.Andy Pattenden: increases in commercial break-and-enters north of Toronto. (CBC)

Giving Professor Felson the opportunity to produce a study highlighting a dramatic drop in crime rates, a study he co-authored with Professor Ben Stickle of Middle Tennessee State University. Some crimes, it appears, rose, while other types fell. And Professor Felson felt confident that dissecting the interplay of the rise and fall at a unique time in history when human routines and activities were undergoing massive change could be the key to fully comprehending the whys and wherefores.

Crime rates were seen to have diminished by double digits almost immediately when the routine activities of massive populations reacted suddenly to the changes in civic behaviour mandated by their government authorities. Routine activity during lockdown had an inhibiting effect on capable offenders unable to meet up with crime targets. When offices and businesses are closed, opportunities for crime are enhanced for 'guardans' are absent. Researchers worldwide now use Felson's theory to analyze how COVID restrictions have altered crime patterns in various communities, cities and regions.

A British study found a large drop in total reported crime in Lancashire county, led by shoplifting, for when shops are closed, access is denied shoplifters, just as pickpockets are out of luck when there are no longer bustling crowds of distracted people to enable their criminal pickpocketing activities, according to a Stockholm study of crime. As well, fewer home break-ins occur when people are in lockdown and remain in their homes, expressing the present 'guardian' principle.

A shooting victim was found in this vehicle in Toronto. (Paul Smith/CBC)

Outside the routine reportage of ordinary social crimes of opportunity, there are the extreme crime breakouts; mass murders, police shootouts, assassination attempts. Anecdotal and published accounts through news media suggest violent incidents may be linked to stress, loneliness and psychosocial changes resulting from the pandemic, that under lockdown, some people lost access to normal coping mechanisms; bars, friends, church, therapy, shopping.

In the end, the hope is that the theory that Dr.Felson placed so much of his experienced belief in can result in predicting what types of crime will increase, where they will occur both during a pandemic and following it, and that careful research examining how crime changes when lockdowns end, will help the criminal justice system more fully understand motivation and opportunity in crime. Human behaviour has a tendency to return to the familiar once an extraordinary, unsettling circumstance concludes. 

Clockwise from top left: Toronto Police officers contain an area behind a low-rise apartment complex where shots were fired on Sunday morning. Top left: RCMP officers prepare to take Gabriel Wortman into custody at a gas station in Enfield, N.S., on April 19. Bottom left: Four people were shot at a massive weekend house party in York Region in late July. Bottom right: An RCMP officer works with a police dog as they move through the contents of a truck that stormed Rideau Hall on July 2.

"Most crime is quite ordinary, and these extraordinary crimes [high-profile crimes that are highlighted by the media] get so much attention you forget how ordinary most crime is."                                                                                                          "It is difficult to escape the conclusion that the early effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime largely rest on routine activity theory."                                   Marcus Felson, criminologist