Move Over, Omicron, Here Comes Your Offspring!

"I think this is going to be the reality going forward as we go towards an endemic scenario." 

"Hopefully, knock on wood, it’s osculating towards a less lethal and a much more milder version of COVID."

Fredericton pharmacist Alistair Bursey. 

 

"There is very limited evidence at present to determine how impactful the differences between BA.1 and BA.2 may be, hence the ongoing efforts by PHAC scientists to monitor cases here in Canada and track developments internationally."

Public Health Agency of Canada

 

"Significant degree of uncertainty [remains around BA.2, but the subvariant is worth keeping an eye on as more cases are reported around the world]."

"We have a lot of BA.1 for example here in Canada, we also have BA.2. What's interesting is, in other jurisdictions, we're seeing growth of BA.2 whereas BA.1 might be on the downslope." 

"Again, something to keep an eye on for now."

"It's not the same [as BA.1], it's probably a little bit more transmissible, but there's probably a lot of other similarities."

"I think it's too soon to know exactly how this manifests and we need to learn more."

Infectious disease expert Dr. Isaac Bogoch, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto

BA.2 has been tracked for weeks in regions around the world, but drew the close attention of virologists once it started to creep up on the original Omicron lineage in multiple countries, including early signals of a slight rise here in Canada. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

 

Canadian provinces are starting to remove pandemic restrictions. The wave of infections caused by Omicron is subsiding, there are fewer infections, less hospitalization and ICU patients. The time is seen as ripe for restrictions to start lifting. The trouble is that with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19, every time the medical community begins to heave a collective sigh of relief that the pandemic seems to be getting under control, it has another trick up its sneaky sleeve.

Omicron has proven to be the most infectious mutation yet of the original coronavirus. It is also held to be less lethal in its outcome than its predecessor, Delta. But it has swept unmercifully through the human community worldwide. That the latest Omicron wave brought to Canada courtesy of its wild infection rate has bred through mutation, another variant -- dubbed by the World Health Organization BA.2 through its origins in BA.1 -- that is even more infectious [showing up in laboratories since November], is no success story for COVID control.

BA.2 has now gained a firm foothold in Canada, just as BA.1 is subsiding. Which means that COVID-weary populations, anxious for restrictions to be lifted, hoping for COVID to recede into the mysterious background from which it came, may now become vulnerable to an even more transmissible disease than Omicron turned out to be. With society beginning to open, just as BA.2 -- the variant offspring of BA.1 --, is gaining strength in numbers infected, is not a particularly good sign for the near future.

BA.1 is thought to be 1.4 times more infectious than its predecessor and it is anticipated to become dominant in coming weeks, potentially extending the current wave of the pandemic just as all indications have been that it is fading. Infectious disease experts are conflicted in their points of view; many indicating there is not enough known about the variant to make confident predictions, others that though it will influence rising case counts, it may not be a complete game-changer.

Based on the fact that the Omicron wave is diminishing, that booster shot rates are fairly high, and an estimated 3.5 million people in the province of Ontario alone have been infected with COVID-19 during the overwhelming Omicron wave that began back in December, there is a condition of widespread immunity assumed to exist in the general population. 

The BA.2 rise in Canada "does not necessarily mean a second major Omicron wave will happen, more likely we'll see a prolonged peak or a shoulder in the Omicron wave", according to the opinion of Sarah Otto, professor of evolutionary virology and mathematical modelling at University of British Columbia, herself a leading Canadian expert on BA.2.

Scientists, on the other hand, are studying Omicron closely since so much uncertainty remains and it has been associated with a renewed spike in cases in countries like Denmark, which dropped all pandemic restrictions in January including masks and is now experiencing record high case counts with the BA.2 sub-variant dominant.

BA.2 is different enough from BA.2, argues a recent study led by Japanese researchers, that it should not be classified as a variant of Omicron, but rather, should be given its own unique Greek name, setting it apart from its predecessor.

 

Research is underway to understand the BA.2 subvariant's impact on vaccine effectiveness, but current shots are still expected to continue offering protection against severe illness. (Luke Dray/Getty Images)

"What is important to remember here is that Denmark is not Canada. Denmark is a different population, with different vaccine uptake, different medical histories and demographics." 

"So what's happening in Denmark isn't necessarily going to automatically translate to Canada." 

"We need to keep the sequencing going on,. We need to know the behaviour of this virus."   

Angela Rasmussen, virologist, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization, University of Saskatchewan    

 

"We need to get serious, find out fast the conditions under which Omicron originated, the mechanisms at play during the assembly of its complement of mutations and figure out how we can minimize the probability of these conditions recurring,"    

"The last thing any of us want is another new hyper-evolved [variant of concern] cropping up every few months."

Darren Martin, virologist, University of Cape Town, South Africa