Confusion, Musing From Russia

"This is not the beginning of a war."

"Our desire is to prevent developments that could escalate into a global war."

Maria V. Zakharova, spokeswoman, Kremlin foreign ministry

 

"[I would only] believe in the worst possible scenario [about Russia at this juncture]."

"We are now all trapped in this situation. There is no exit. We Russians will spend many years digging out from the consequences of this day."

Ksenia Sobchak, daughter of St.Petersburg mayor

 

"I have no clue where he got all that [Putin description of Ukraine as a dire threat to Russia in February21 speech] -- he seems to be reading something totally strange."

"He's become an isolated man, more isolated than Stalin was."

Gleb O. Pavlovsky, political scientist, past Putin adviser

 

"I've always tried to understand Putin. He has become less pragmatic, and more emotional."

:"Putin has brought himself to a place in which he sees it as more important, more interesting, more compelling to fight for restoring historical justice than for Russia's strategic priorities."

Ttiana Stanovaya, political analysis firm R.Politik 

President Vladimir V. Putin, attending a wreath-laying ceremony on Defenders of the Fatherland Day this week.  Credit...Pool photo by Alexei Nikolsky

Vladimir V. Putin, President extraordinaire-cum-ruling-Czar of the Russian Federation has become a mysterious figure, one barely recognizable by many prominent Russians who puzzle over a perceived and inexplicable alteration in his personality. A change, or perhaps his subconscious disgorging the real Putin, the one who patiently bided his time while eliminating critics, tightening freedom of speech, incarcerating political opponents and manipulating the Russian constitution to his ongoing administration of the nation.

As an adversarial and ambitious figure aspiring to restore Russia's regional domination, the advent of a new American president long familiar to him and adjudged by that familiarity to be no threat to his future legacy plans, he judged the time right to loosen self-imposed strictures to action. Bluffs and rhetoric taken as dire warning failed to alarm Ukraine's government. A government which also believed it knew the character of the man as they shrugged off the potential for war as an empty threat.

After all, Russians and Ukrainians alike had a full 22 years to assess the qualities of the man who has brought them to the crisis of invasion and conflict. The man of calm determination navigating his country in an increasingly uncertain world suddenly transformed into a belligerent leader putting the world on notice that Russia is a nuclear power. Gone the expectation post Soviet implosion that Russia wuld take its place in a world order preferencing peace over war.

 

Smoke rising from an air defense base in the aftermath of a Russian strike in Mariupol, Ukraine, on Thursday.   Credit...Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated Press

February 24 brought shock to Ukraine, but it delivered a very similar sensation throughout Russia that their president had ordered a full-scale assault against a "brotherly nation".  Public figures who had overlooked Mr. Putin's emerging authoritarianism began posting their disbelief and distress on social media, opposing a war they could have no influence on. Thousands of Russians took to the streets from St.Petersburg to Siberia, the chant "No to war!" ringing in their marching wake.

Analysts n Moscow's foreign policy establishment overwhelmingly characterized the military buildup around Ukraine as a mere bluff, only later to grudgingly admit they had misread the mind of a man they had studied in the previous two decades. Through social media, Russians viewed their military sowing destruction and death in a neighbouring country where millions of Russians had relatives and friends.

 

"The world has turned upside down. I cannot even imagine the consequences. This is a catastrophe", said 44-year-old Anastasia as she protested the war in Moscow and bursting into tears, unmindful  of the riot police officers tasked to control the crowd. "It's so strange that Russia could attack anyone", a 60-year-old pensioner said, walking through Zaryadye park in Moscow.

It was during the pandemic that notice first alerted analysts that something seemed different about the Russian president, who had been in a lengthy self-imposed isolation. To them he appeared to be aggrieved as he spoke of a need to correct what he spoke of as historical wrongs. Gleb Pavlovsky, once a close adviser to Mr. Putin, spoke of how stunned he felt by the description the president gave of Ukraine as a dire threat to Russia.