Ruminations: Starving Crop Production, Starving Multitudes

"In December 2020, the federal government set a voluntary national fertilizer emissions reduction target of 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030. While agriculture must do its part in limiting the impacts of climate change, emission reduction strategies must balance the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fertilizer application against farm profitability, economic growth and global food security."
"Canadian farmers are already among the most sustainable growers in the world, they have less room to lower fertilizer emissions without compromising food production than those in other countries. As there are only eight growing seasons until 2030. To meet its climate goals, Canada must follow the leadership of Canadian farmers and go all-in on 4R Nutrient Stewardship. Choosing 4R will reduce environmental impacts while supporting Canadian farmers and families."
"For the last decade and a half, Canadian farmers have worked hard to reduce emissions from fertilizer by adopting 4R Nutrient Stewardship. The 4R approach was developed in partnership with leading scientists, farm organizations and provincial governments to reduce agriculture’s environmental impact without compromising farmers’ competitiveness."
Fertilizer Canada

"I believe what [this report] is saying that the 30 per cent reduction target is not achievable without putting production and exports in jeopardy, and we've been saying that all along."
"It was an arbitrary target that was set somewhere in the government, with no path as to how it was going to be achieved."
"It's really taken our eye off the ball of what is needed in our industry, which is to become more efficient and productive and competitive."
"Most farmers already do whatever they can to reduce their use of fertilizer — it's their most expensive input."
Tom Steve, general manager, Alberta Wheat and Barley Commissions

A farmer works a potato field in North Tryon, Prince Edward Island. (Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press)

Canada is one among just a few nations of the world that harvest bountiful grain harvests, sufficient to feed its population and through export, helping to feed large portions of the world's population in Asia and Africa unable to provide for themselves. Under Canada's current government, led by Liberal leader, and prime minister, Justin Trudeau, that may soon enough change. Canada also has formidably large petroleum resources, but this same prime minister insists it is in the world's best interests to leave oil and gas in the ground, undisturbed because to extract it for energy sources, is to disturb nature itself to an unacceptable degree.

To that end, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has informed energy-anxious Europe and Japan that Canada can be of no benefit to them, there will be no pipelines built to transit oil and liquefied natural gas abroad. And nor will there be permits given for the extraction of said products to supply Canada itself from sea to sea to sea. On the other hand, oil resourced from Saudi Arabia fits Canada's environmental credentials very well.

Now, however, looking to agriculture the government announced a country-wide target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the application of agricultural fertilizer, by 30 percent below the levels seen in 2020, by 2030. Emissions from synthetic fertilizers used by farmers accounted for roughly 13 million tonnes of Co2 equivalent annually (1.7 percent of Canada's total emissions for 2019). That cut could result in a reduction of national emissions by 0.5 percent.

As an essential input for crop production reducing fertilizer use risks a reduction in both food production and farm incomes. Agribusiness organizations in Canada responded to the government's plans with cautious misgivings; not quite questioning the rationale, but expressing concerns; primarily lack of a scientific basis for the 30 percent target focusing on an absolute reduction in emissions rather than a reduction in the intensity of emissions. The adverse impact on food production and farm incomes has also not been addressed by government.

Farmers' concern is that if the target goes unmet under the voluntary rule, it will become mandatory. Groups like Fertilizer Canada promote a "4R Nutrient Stewardship" program calling on farmers to apply fertilizers at the "right source, right rate, right time and right place". Canadian agricultural practise, farmers argue, already is the "gold standard" in sustainability. As a measure of how well crops utilize nutrient inputs the efficiency of nitrogen currently sits at 72 percent in Canada, in comparison to 62 percent in Europe.

According to a study by consulting firm MNP LLP on behalf of Fertilizer Canada -- of the potential loss to farmers should the target be met by reducing crop yields, the total value of lost production of canola, corn and spring wheat from 2023 to 2030 would come to $40.5 billion. Canadian exports of canola would decline from over ten million tonnes today to just 750,000 tonnes. Annual spring wheat exports would fall by 4.2 million tonnes and corn production by 6.2 million tonnes.

As the world's largest producer and exporter of canola, the planet's fourth-largest exporter of wheat, measures that could reduce Canada's ability to supply food to the rest of the world couldn't come at a worse time. According to the World Food Program by mid-2022, 345 million people worldwide were "food insecure" (lacking reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable nutrition food), and over 900,000 were barely surviving in famine-like conditions, a direct result of conflict such as in Ukraine, post-pandemic disruptions to supply chains, and in some regions, droughts.

"Nitrogen fertilizer is an essential crop nutrient and an important input for Canadian farmers. Forcing them to reduce their use of fertilizer would result in decreased yield of their crop, less profitability and competitiveness. Given the current global challenges to food supply, now is not the time to add policies that threaten to reduce yields even further."
"The federal government should give farmers more autonomy and provide support if they want to voluntarily improve their nitrogen management and adopt better practices."
Taylor Brown, policy analyst, Canadian Federation of Independent Business