Starving Crop Production, Starving Multitudes

 

"In December 2020, the federal government set a voluntary national fertilizer emissions reduction target of 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030. While agriculture must do its part in limiting the impacts of climate change, emission reduction strategies must balance the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fertilizer application against farm profitability, economic growth and global food security."

"Canadian farmers are already among the most sustainable growers in the world, they have less room to lower fertilizer emissions without compromising food production than those in other countries. As there are only eight growing seasons until 2030. To meet its climate goals, Canada must follow the leadership of Canadian farmers and go all-in on 4R Nutrient Stewardship. Choosing 4R will reduce environmental impacts while supporting Canadian farmers and families."

"For the last decade and a half, Canadian farmers have worked hard to reduce emissions from fertilizer by adopting 4R Nutrient Stewardship. The 4R approach was developed in partnership with leading scientists, farm organizations and provincial governments to reduce agriculture’s environmental impact without compromising farmers’ competitiveness."

Fertilizer Canada

 

"I believe what [this report] is saying that the 30 per cent reduction target is not achievable without putting production and exports in jeopardy, and we've been saying that all along."

"It was an arbitrary target that was set somewhere in the government, with no path as to how it was going to be achieved."

"It's really taken our eye off the ball of what is needed in our industry, which is to become more efficient and productive and competitive."

"Most farmers already do whatever they can to reduce their use of fertilizer — it's their most expensive input."

Tom Steve, general manager, Alberta Wheat and Barley Commissions

A farmer works a potato field in North Tryon, Prince Edward Island. (Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press)

 

Canada is one among just a few nations of the world that harvest bountiful grain harvests, sufficient to feed its population and through export, helping to feed large portions of the world's population in Asia and Africa unable to provide for themselves. Under Canada's current government, led by Liberal leader, and prime minister, Justin Trudeau, that may soon enough change. Canada also has formidably large petroleum resources, but this same prime minister insists it is in the world's best interests to leave oil and gas in the ground, undisturbed because to extract it for energy sources, is to disturb nature itself to an unacceptable degree.

To that end, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has informed energy-anxious Europe and Japan that Canada can be of no benefit to them, there will be no pipelines built to transit oil and liquefied natural gas abroad. And nor will there be permits given for the extraction of said products to supply Canada itself from sea to sea to sea. On the other hand, oil resourced from Saudi Arabia fits Canada's environmental credentials very well. 

 

Now, however, looking to agriculture the government announced a country-wide target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the application of agricultural fertilizer, by 30 percent below the levels seen in 2020, by 2030. Emissions from synthetic fertilizers used by farmers accounted for roughly 13 million tonnes of Co2 equivalent annually (1.7 percent of Canada's total emissions for 2019). That cut could result in a reduction of national emissions by 0.5 percent.

As an essential input for crop production reducing fertilizer use risks a reduction in both food production and farm incomes. Agribusiness organizations in Canada responded to the government's plans with cautious misgivings; not quite questioning the rationale, but expressing concerns; primarily lack of a scientific basis for the 30 percent target focusing on an absolute reduction in emissions rather than a reduction in the intensity of emissions. The adverse impact on food production and farm incomes has also not been addressed by government.

Farmers' concern is that if the target goes unmet under the voluntary rule, it will become mandatory. Groups like Fertilizer Canada promote a "4R Nutrient Stewardship" program calling on farmers to apply fertilizers at the "right source, right rate, right time and right place". Canadian agricultural practise, farmers argue, already is the "gold standard" in sustainability. As a measure of how well crops utilize nutrient inputs the efficiency of nitrogen currently sits at 72 percent in Canada, in comparison to 62 percent in Europe.

According to a study by consulting firm MNP LLP on behalf of Fertilizer Canada -- of the potential loss to farmers should the target be met by reducing crop yields, the total value of lost production of canola, corn and spring wheat from 2023 to 2030 would come to $40.5 billion. Canadian exports of canola would decline from over ten million tonnes today to just 750,000 tonnes. Annual spring wheat exports would fall by 4.2 million tonnes and corn production by 6.2 million tonnes.

As the world's largest producer and exporter of canola, the planet's fourth-largest exporter of wheat, measures that could reduce Canada's ability to supply food to the rest of the world couldn't come at a worse time. According to the World Food Program by mid-2022, 345 million people worldwide were "food insecure" (lacking reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable nutrition food), and over 900,000 were barely surviving in famine-like conditions, a direct result of conflict such as in Ukraine, post-pandemic disruptions to supply chains, and in some regions, droughts.

"Nitrogen fertilizer is an essential crop nutrient and an important input for Canadian farmers. Forcing them to reduce their use of fertilizer would result in decreased yield of their crop, less profitability and competitiveness. Given the current global challenges to food supply, now is not the time to add policies that threaten to reduce yields even further."

 "The federal government should give farmers more autonomy and provide support if they want to voluntarily improve their nitrogen management and adopt better practices."

Taylor Brown, policy analyst, Canadian Federation of Independent Business

Harvested wheat fields near Cremona, Alta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

Farm to Table : Rising Whole Food Production Costs

"We're seeing [costs] rising in just about every input across the board for us."

"That's a huge cost difference [grain drying rising from 2021 at $15,00 to $30,000 for 2022]. How can we allow Mother Nature maybe to do a little more of this?"

"The numbers we have penciled in today [labour costs in view of a 6.8 percent inflation rate] are static, but it will change over time, and it has to, because as an employer we have to make sure that our employees are viable." 

"[If wheat or barley was selling for a lower, more typical rate, his farm would be] deep in the red."

Humphrey Banack, Alberta farmer, Alberta Federation of Agriculture board member

Farm equipment moves down a Southwestern Ontario road on May 26. Photo by Mike Hensen/The London Free Press/Postmedia Network

In view of global economic upheavals over the past few years, most notably the pandemic years, and more latterly, the Russian-imposed war in Ukraine, the cost of living everywhere has risen. On tens of thousands of Canadian farms feeding the nation, farmers are coping with scarcity of fertilizer and skyrocketing diesel prices, among the first to realize the broadeer impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The impact on the world of the two nations now at war who are among the world's largest wheat producers and exporters has shocked grain markets; the high demand for grains and  high prices for whatever grain is available is threatening food availability in economically marginalized economies. While Canada doesn't face the kind of situation that threatens scarcity in Africa and the Middle East, it has its own production and distribution problems.

Canada, like Russia and Ukraine, is a major exporter of grains to world markets. The invasion of Ukraine has placed a stranglehold on grains and oils from both Russia and Ukraine, and grain exporting countries like Canada are expected to fill in some of the scarcity gaps worldwide. This, at a time when one of the single largest costs for farmers annually is fertilizers when a major source of fertilizers globally; again, Ukraine and Russia, is being cut off.

Farmers in Canada as elsewhere are now not only concerned with rising prices but with the issue of acquiring enough fertilizer for their crops to enable good yields. Wheat, canola, barley and oats would have cost the average Canadian grain farmer $60 to $65 per acre in fertilizer costs in 2021 but for this year costs are in the range of $130 to $140 per acre, giving the average farm of 778 acres an increase of roughly $56,000 for fertilizer alone.

Then there is rising fuel costs to consider; diesel for tractors and other farm machinery and natural gas indispensable for grain drying. In Canada, costs are topped up by a federal government-charged carbon tax to further burden farmers who must purchase tens of thousands of litres of fuel for seeding and harvesting. Farmer Humphrey Banack farming near Camrose Alberta, estimates his fertilizer bill rose from $450,000 to close on $1 million for this year.

His 8,000-acre farm used about 175,000 litres of fuel in 2021. He is now able to store 90,000 litres of fuel on his farm after purchasing new fuel tanks, allowing him to shop the market, avoiding buying fuel when it is needed, and paying whatever price the market bears. This year he expects fuel costs to be about $258,000 as opposed to the $142,000 he spent in 2021. Grain requires drying when it comes off the field, before it can be stored and transported.

Where in recent years farmers were paying $1.50 or $2 per gigajoule for natural gas to dry grain, this year it will be more like $4 or $5. Crop insurance has risen this year reflecting higher crop prices, and labour costs are set to increase as workers require higher pay reflecting the increased inflation rate pushing up consumer costs.

Food prices are expected to rise between five and seven percent through 2022. Depending on the goods, farm costs make up only about 20 percent of a grocery item's cost. High energy prices that increase production costs for farmers, are also driving up the cost of grocery items. "Energy is really the major, major cost item. So something that happens at the farm level doesn't necessarily translate into higher food prices directly because there's so much else going on", explained Alfons Weersink, agriculture economist, University of Guelph.

Photo shows harvest on a Saskatchewan farm. Inflation and supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and more latterly, the Ukraine conflict, have farmers concerned about their costs, producers say. (Tory Gillis/CBC)