Ruminations: Drone Wars

"At night we do bombing missions, and during the day we think about how to get new drones."
"We're examining every possible way to export drones from China."
Oles Maliarevych, 92nd Mechanized Brigade officer, Ukraine

A photo on SHUBBA-Octagon's website shows a DJI drone armed with an explosive.

In a basement eight kilometers from the front lines of the conflict Russia imposed upon Ukraine, soldiers from the 92nd Mechanized Brigade work on a deadly supply chain of cluster munitions, thermobaric bombs and drones. Where hobbyist drones are converted to combat weapons. One soldier attaches a modified battery to a quadcopter to enable it further flight. On the battlefield, pilots zip-tie a homemade shell to the bottom of the device to crash it into Russian trenches and tanks as human-guided missiles.

These airborne vehicles are so effective that those who modify them find it difficult to keep up with demand. Yet sourcing new supplies is of and in itself a full-time occupation. The conflict in Ukraine has become a war of drones. Leaving those who use them heavily reliant on supply sources. Large, military-grade drones are produced by Iran and Turkey, while the inexpensive consumer drones largely are supplied from China. Suppliers from China have yet to keep up their supplies that Ukrainians reconstitute to weapons-grade.

Chinese manufacturers such as DJI, EHang and Autel churned out drones at an ever-increasing rate over the last decade. Now, however, Chinese suppliers have become less reliable, less willing to expand and continue their sales production. New rules restricting export of drone components took effect a month ago. The traditional Chinese drone producers who produce millions annually outpacing other countries with DJI holding over 90 percent of the global consumer drone market, have suddenly become sales-shy.

Ukrainian soldiers of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, named after King Danylo, prepare to operate the test flight a new FPV drone in the training area as soldiers test their new military equipment as Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on August 03, 2023.

Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

In the past few months sales of drones and components to Ukrainians by Chinese companies have been cut back. Those Chinese firms agreeable to selling their products often require buyers to resort to the use of intermediary networks for their purchase orders. Ukraine is in dire need of drones and constituent parts and is prepared to beg, borrow and smuggle what they need. Through use in the conflict, an estimated 10,000 drones monthly require replacement.

There are fears rising that China's new restrictive rules on sale of drone components could deleteriously impact the supply chain that Ukraine is so dependent on. Which advantages Russia. Direct drone shipments by Chinese companies to Ukraine totaled just over $200,000 in 2023 to June. Russia, on the other hand, received $14.5 million in direct shipments during that same time frame.

However, Ukraine managed to obtain millions in Chinese-produced drones and components, most arriving through European intermediaries, according to customs data. Drones for reconnaissance, to drop bombs, and to use as guided missiles remain the Ukraine military's focus. $1 billion has been earmarked for a program to support drone start-ups and drone acquisition efforts.

Ukrainian operators fly DJI drones at a training area in August.

Mavic, an easy-to-use quadcopter produced by DJI during the first weeks of the war were what Ukrainian soldiers relied on. Then the company announced plans to discontinue its business in Russia and Ukraine. Volunteers took to bringing in the copters by the thousands to Ukraine, mostly from Europe, while Russia discovered new channels through friendly neighbors, at the same time continuing to order and receive Chinese export drones.

Hobbyist racing drones strapped with bombs to act as human-guided missiles are also on the front line scene this year. F.P.V.s, for first-person view, in reference to the manner in which the drones are remotely piloted with virtual-reality-like goggles are sold by a few mostly Chinese companies, along with their components. Volunteers and companies work to acquire as many F.P.V.s as possible, with Ukrainian suppliers reckoning that soldiers likely require up to 30,000 of the devices monthly.

In competition with Russia to acquire F.P.V.s from Chinese firms, Ukraine deals with Russia having the advantage since it can bid higher and order larger batches. From the perspective of Chinese producers, additionally, selling to Russia has the advantage of being politically safer, in view of the solidarity expressed between Moscow and Beijing.

"Today, we virtually do not use any Chinese components", revealed Ukrspecsystems, a Kyiv company that manufacturers fixed-wing reconnaissance drones, a result of supply chain issues leading it to search for the requisite supplies beyond China.