Hard Ukraine Realities

"They are now being outshot by the Russian side five to one. So the Russians fire five times as many artillery shells at the Ukrainians than the Ukrainians are able to fire back. That will immediately go to ten to one in a matter of weeks."

"We're not talking about months. We're not talking hypothetically."

"The biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery. In most conflicts, but in this one definitely. And should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying -- because we supply the lion's share of that."

"[If Ukraine's air defence stocks run out], those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy, and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against without a U.S. provision of interceptors."

"Their ability to defend their terrain that they currently hold and their airspace would fade rapidly, will fade rapidly without the supplemental."

Army General Christopher Cavoli, head, U.S. European Command 

A boy sets a flag at a memorial for Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv on April 9, 2024. Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images

Congress was informed this week by the U.S. forces' top general in Europe that within a matter of weeks, Ukraine will be outgunned ten-to-one by Russian forces should Congress not find its way through to approval of sending more weapons and ammunition as promised to Kyiv in short order. Both Army General Christopher Cavoli and Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defence for international security affairs updated Congress on the situation, neither sparing details of the urgency and the likelihood of disaster for the war-torn country should badly needed weapons not be delivered. 

Congress is now in a critical period as pivotal weeks for voting for aid for Ukraine have been entered. There is no crystal ball of assurance that can guarantee emergency funding will be approved in time to boost Ukraine's chances of prevailing over Russia's larger, better-equipped forces. While Congress delayed passage of its $60-billion supplemental bill, Ukraine has been forced to ration its available munitions, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been appealing non-stop for military assistance.

 

Ukrainian soldiers work on how to evacuate the wounded during training in central Ukraine in March 2024. Valentyna Polishchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has been attempting to bring the bill to fund new rounds of munitions production at American firms enabling the Pentagon to supply more munitions to Ukraine, while facing concerns from others citing domestic needs as a priority over Ukraine's parlous state of security. All the while the dire situation in Ukraine sees hope dwindling and battlefield losses accumulating even as the Ukrainian military had scored some unexpected successes last month within Russia's borders.

General Cavoli emphasized to the congressmen assembled how much of a lifeline up to the present the American flow of 155mm artillery shells has been to Ukraine, even as missile production in Russia has been ramped up, giving Moscow the opportunity to launch large-scale attacks consistently, frequently. Should Kyiv fail -- warned this harbinger-of-sobering-reality -- Ukraine's Baltic NATO member-neighbours could be imperilled, with the potential that American troops could potentially be drawn into a prolonged European war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Joe Biden hold a news conference in Washington, D.C., in December 2023. Alex Wong/Getty Images