Ruminations

Blog dedicated primarily to randomly selected news items; comments reflecting personal perceptions

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Kharkiv Threatened

"Active combat is ongoing in the settlements located one to two kilometres away from the border with Russia."
"We clearly understand what forces the enemy is using in the north of our territory. Certainly, the escalation can grow, the pressure can increase, it can strengthen its military units, its military presence."
"As of now the enemy keeps pressing in the north of our region. Our forces have repelled nine attacks."
Kharkiv Regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov 

"It is important that partners support our soldiers and Ukrainian stability with timely supplies."
"Really timely. The package that really helps is the weapons brought to Ukraine, not just the ones announced."
"Disrupting Russian offensive plans is now our number one task."
"[Troops must] return the initiative to Ukraine. Every air-defence system, every anti-missile system is literally what saves lives."
"It is important that our partners support our soldiers and Ukrainian resilience with timely deliveries — really timely ones."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
https://static.themoscowtimes.com/image/article_1360/9e/Screenshot2024-05-11at095507.png
Ukrainian volunteers evacuate residents from settlements in the north of the Kharkiv region on May 10 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sergey Bobok / AFP

Mired deep in conflict with Russian forces seeking to take full advantage of the shortage of armaments faced by Ukraine given the holdup in critical materiel promised by its European and North American supporters and suppliers, Ukrainian forces still manage to put the Kremlin on its back foot regularly.
Air defences in Russia, according to the Russian Defence Ministry, shot down seven Ukrainian drones in the Moscow, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, showing that Ukraine is still managing to penetrate Russia's interior with its armed drones. 

Despite that Ukraine's home-grown drones face problems in manufacturing related to Moscow's targeting of Kyiv's energy networks which invariably and inevitably impact on its production capabilities. The Friday shoot-down in Russia of the Ukrainian drones followed a deeper strike into Russia by Ukraine of the day before when a petro-chemical facility was hit. Ukraine's repeated targeting of refineries purposed to disrupt Putin's war machine is not particularly popular with the Kremlin.

Ukraine has been forced by circumstances to rush reinforcements to the Kharkiv region as Russian forces attempt to breach local defences; a tactical switch by Moscow, expected by Ukrainian officials. Intense overnight shelling targeted Vovchansk, less than five kilometres from the border with Russia. Powerful guided aerial bombs, artillery, rockets, tanks and mortars led to the evacuation of about 3,000 people from a town whose prewar population was about 20,000.

The assault could represent the  beginning of an attempt by the Russian military, according to Russian military bloggers, to carve a "buffer zone" to put a stop to frequent attacks by Ukraine on Belgorod and other Russian border regions, a move promised earlier in the  year by President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine deployed reserve units to fend off the attack of Russian infantry. Russian assembly of thousands of troops along the north-eastern border close to the Khakiv and Sumy regions had been noted by Ukraine.
"Now there is a fierce battle in this direction", stated President Zelenskyy.

While it isn't likely that Russian would commit the required troop buildup and armour to capture Kharkiv, its actions could force Ukraine to assemble more troops to head to the region, that move of necessity leaving other areas of the country vulnerable. Key supply routes in the area could motivate the Russian military to attempt a blockade of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, home to about 1.1 million people, located a mere 30 km south of the border.

Ukraine's well-known acute shortages of manpower and ammunition in the wake of a disruption of the flow of Western and European military aid has prompted the Russian military to exploit the situation before the promised new shipments arrive. "Not all of our partners are currently fulfilling the agreements in a timely manner", President Zelenskyy had remonstrated, a complaint alerting the Kremlin to the strain of coping with shortages that Ukraine is dealing with.

Along the 10,000-km front line the Ukrainian military is on the defensive, desperately building fortified defensive lines in expectation of facing a larger Russian offensive where Ukrainian forces are outnumbered in infantry, armour and ammunition. "The entire town is under massive shelling now. It is not safe to stay here", Vovchansk administration head Tamaz Hambarishvili reported to Ukraine's Hromadske Radio, while fighting against Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups was reported by the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.

A man in a firefighter's uniform holds a hose while standing on top of the rubble of a building with smoke billowing in the sky behind
A rescuer finishes extinguishing a fire at the site of a Russian strike on a residential building in Kharkiv. Photograph: Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images

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