No MÉNAGE À TROIS, This : Slighting China?

"[The Chinese response has been] very weak."

"Every option is a bad option. You're either unable to make a decision because of very strongly held competing views or ... you're just incapable of making a decision because you just don't know how to evaluate the situation."

"They don't want to push Kim Jong Un further into the arms of Vladimir Putin."

Victor Cha, senior vice-president for Asia and Korea chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin look toward each other as they shake hands prior to their talks in Beijing, China. (Sergei Bobylev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Time has not yet blurred recent mutual assurances between China and Russia of like-mindedness, with both agreeing that the position of Western powers to stultify and interfere with the sovereign autonomy of both countries demanded they form an alliance of ideological, social, economic and military coherence in their mutual need of support and reliance on one another's persuasive positions on the world stage. China solidified its assurances to Russia with its support of the 'special military operation' against Ukraine.

 

The two countries have had their tensions in the past, but have always nonetheless maintained the strength of a collegial compact as two outliers, each of which carries the strength of veto on the powerful Security Council of the United Nations. Invariably when one votes against a motion put forward by France, Britain or the United States, the other will vote similarly. Sanction one and the other will veto it, such is the power of nation-to-nation devotion in the ideological/political sphere.

 

That Russia has chosen this moment to secure strengthened supportive and military ties with North Korea, presumably without consultations with Beijing is indeed puzzling. Vladimir Putin has full understanding of President Xi's special sponsorship of Pyongyang and its mercurial leader Kim Jong Un. The strategy that appears to have moved President Putin to please Kim by offering a closer alliance seems fairly opaque when it risks offending President Xi.

 

Photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wave from an open top limousine as they travel along a street in Pyongyang, North Korea. (Ju Peng/Xinhua via AP, File)

Regional observers have noted little visible reaction from China with the Russian move to a firmer alliance with North Korea including a new defence pact. Peering in from the outside, experts seem to diagnose the situation arriving as a sudden surprise has caused some level of consternation in the Chinese leadership, and fear the event could have the effect of increased destabilization on the Korean Peninsula. China's concern is to moderate hostilities between the Koreas even as it counters the U.S. 

"There is also a great deal of discomfort" in China, sensitive to the prospect of losing authority over North Korea to Russia, in Mr. Cha's opinion. And nor might it view favourably the presence of a nuclear power in Russia's presence within a neighbour's territory. With Russia's presence, the tensions of Europe will impact Asia -- that alone concerning to Beijing. 

"The co-operation between Russia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is a matter between two sovereign states. We do not have information on the relevant matter", demurred Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, diplomatically when probed on Beijing's response to the newly signed agreement.

On the other hand, reporters were informed by John Kirby, White House national security spokesman, that the newly signed pact "should be of concern to any country that believes that the UN Security Council resolutions ought to be abided by" obliquely referring to the sanctions imposed on North Korea in an effort to halt its nuclear weapons development. The agreement "should be of concern to anybody who thinks that supporting the people of Ukraine is an important thing to do. And we would think that that concern would be shared by the People's Republic of China."

 

"If China is indeed concerned, it has leverage in both Russia and North Korea and it could probably try to put some limitations to that relationship", commented Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. An odd position for Beijing to find itself in, at a time when the Chinese Communist Party has become a leading power with influence over both North Korea and Russia. 

 

In this photo provided by the North Korean government, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, drives a car with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sitting in front at a garden of the Kumsusan State Guest House in Pyongyang, North Korea Wednesday, June 19, 2024. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

"Apart from irritation over Putin’s intrusion into what most Chinese consider their sphere of influence, the real cost to China is that Russia’s embrace gives North Korea greater impunity and room to maneuver without consideration to Beijing’s interests,"

"The dilution of Chinese leverage means Kim Jong Un can disregard Beijing’s calls for restraint, and that is much more likely to create chaos at a time when (Chinese leader) Xi Jinping desperately wants stability."

Danny Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute