The Virus With Endless Mutations

"When you look at what's happening right now and try to tell the story of what might occur, you're challenged."

"[For now, scientists are left] watching and learning."

Michael Osterholm, director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota

"Whenever we see those mutations, we're a little bit concerned, but it's hard right now to really estimate how big of a concern those variants will be."

"We should see some increase in cases. What we're hoping is this will now be a manageable increase."

"Omicron is evolving to be perhaps even better at infecting people -- the big question is how much better is it going to get."

"That's something that we'll have to wait and see [about]."

Andy Pekosz, virologist, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

"While the prevalence of lineages and sub-lineages may fluctuate, what we are focused on is monitoring for any changes in disease burden caused by Omicron lineages."

Nicholas Spinelli, spokesman, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Viruses mutate all the time but only some mutations affect their ability to spread or evade prior immunity  Reuters

 

Authorities at the CDC fully anticipate the emergence of new lineages of COVID, planning to track the subvariant case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths. There is confidence among their officials that tools that have managed to slow the spread of past variants will in all likelihood continue their  usefulness against those that are recognized as new mutant strains.

The spread of new, highly transmissible versions of the Omicron variant is being tracked by experts in the field of virology in New York state and in Europe, studying the latest evidence of the coronavirus's capacity to generate fresh threats to humanity through overhauling its genetic profile. No one can yet feel any confidence in predicting the spread of new subvariants and how ill people who contract them may become.

Central New York, around Syracuse and Lake Ontario, is among the first communities in the United States to contend with the new Omicron subvariants. Officials in New York state announced two new Omicron subvariants, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1, which are now the dominant forms of the coronavirus centrally in the state. Infections have risen there at two times the state average.

No evidence exists that is seen as cause for more severe disease developing. The state health department's estimate is that there is a 23 to 27 percent growth advantage in the new strains over the BA.2 variant, itself known to be more infectious than the original Omicron. What is recognized,  however, is that this situation reports significant community spread related to the two subvariants in the United States.

Cases and hospitalization increases nationwide resulting from the BA.2 subvariant led to the discovery of the new subvariants. A greater number of people making use of at-home tests has led to concerns the official numbers may actually represent an underestimate. The pandemic public health emergency measures and the mask mandate for travellers have been extended as a consequence, the rise in cases cited as the reason.

Health authorities in Canada have seen a recent surge across the country as well, driven by the Omicron variant and the BA.2 subvariant. The concern is that the new sublineages' mutations may help the virus enter cells faster and evade vaccine- and infection-boosted immunity. The good news is that no evidence has been seen of increased disease severity in these subvariants.

A month ago, the two subvariants accounted for over 70 percent of cases reported in central New York, while data show an increase to 90 percent of all new cases for April. The subvariants are in evidence even as most public health interventions like mask mandates were lifted. Scientists are tracking the new variants for a better idea of their contagion and potential for causing more severe illness.

A man taking a coronavirus test at pop-up site in New York on Monday. Credit...Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters