The Mystery that is Russia's Prigozhin

 

Images of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in wigs, fake beards and wearing foreign military uniforms have been leaked by Russian security services. The mercenary mutineer may have been ordered exempt from punishment for leading an apprehended insurrection last week by his former financier and supporter for whom the Wagner Group was a handy tool of non-state interference in foreign conflicts, but that decision not to hold him accountable for his attempted putsch, does not obviate the need to hold  him in contempt and to persuade the Russian public devoted to his strongman image that he is a defanged clown.

"It’s great that Russian authorities don’t really care about a person who launched an armed mutiny against them."

"So where is he exactly? With the money, weapons and Wagner mercenaries?"

Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs

 

"The thought that immediately comes to mind is this is a sign of Putin’s weakness."

"[This shows that] there are various factions that Putin has to placate."

"[Prigozhin] has supporters within the power structure that Putin can’t afford to cross."

"[It] lends credence to the view that Putin has been weakened by all of this. Maybe he clearly is stumbling."

Glenn Carle, ex-CIA spy who worked in Russia  

"Even though there is a law providing for 15 years in prison if you speak against the war if Prigozhin maintains his freedom, it would mean that an actual mutineer will have been allowed to go free."

"[Russian citizens are likely] as confused as the rest of us about this.That can’t be good for Putin."

Ex-CIA acting director John McLaughlin

The Kremlin promised not to prosecute Yevgeny Prigozhin for the rebellion after reaching an agreement that he would halt the uprising and go to Belarus. AP

 

Russian state television aired footage of a police raid of Prigozhin's St.Petersburg home, showing large quantities of cash, gold and weapons being discovered, along with props such as the wigs and fake documents.  Prigozhin's personal photograph albums were mined for photos of him wearing a beard sans moustache, favoured by devout Muslims. Wagner, Prigozhin's brainchild, handsomely funded by Putin's Kremlin, operated in Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine.

 

Since then the Russian proxy military group has fought in Syria, Libya, Central African Republic and Sudan. Men in tactical gear were shown on the state news channel, in Prighozin's sumptuous mansion, collecting an estimated $8.8 million in Russian and American banknotes and gold bars. There are also cupboards hoarding wigs and high-powered firearms along with passports with Prigozhin's photograph, but under assumed names. 

Of Prigozhin himself there have been scant sightings since his march on Moscow on June 24. Reportedly, he collected the choicest of his confiscated weapons in person along with his driver, from investigators in St.Petersburg. Despite the agreement that he would be free from prosecution and would be given safe haven in Belarus, its president, Aleksandr Lukashenko denied that Prigozhin is in Belarus, but returned instead to St. Petersburg. 

 

In the mansion a photo was hanging on a wall, of a lineup of decapitated heads. An oversized souvenir sledgehammer could also be seen with the inscription "for important negotiations". The sledgehammer is associated with the Wagner mercenaries, a symbol of its troops' use of the tool to beat defectors to death.

Prighozin's return to St. Petersburg fuels speculation he retains powerful allies in Russia, hostile reports on Russian state television, aside. It was reported that police had returned a "couple of tons" of cash and gold to Prigozhin's possession, that his driver picked up the funds in St.Petersburg, while Prigozhin was attending a meeting in Moscow.

The Russian general in charge of liaison with Wagner, Sergey Surovikin, known to be a close associate of Prigozhin, is suddenly also gone from public view, having last appeared on the morning of the mutiny in a video appeal for Prigozhin and his fighters to cease and desist. General Surovikin was shown on the video with an absence of rank insignia on his uniform, unshaven, speaking slowly. Speculation arose that the video was filmed u nder duress.

Reports have emerged that the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs ran an inquiry into levels of public support for Prigozhin through gauging social media posts and internet searches. Ukrainian intelligence intercepted the findings that suggest 17 of Russia's 46 regions supported Prigozhin, leaving Vladimir Putin with support from 21 regions, eight remaining split in loyalty. While Moscow seemed to back the Russian president, his home city of St.Petersburg was prepared to throw its support to the Wagner chief.

Experts are divided on what this means for Russian president Vladimir Putin. Reuters

 

"Despite Peskov’s statement to the contrary, I am sure that the Kremlin is quite capable of tracking Prigozhin’s movements and that it knows precisely where he is every minute of the day."

"I think Peskov, and the Putin regime more broadly, is trying to signal that Prigozhin isn’t so significant a threat anymore. Maybe next week, Peskov will start claiming that there really wasn’t a mutiny at all and that statements about it are all Western propaganda."

Mark N Katz, George Mason university professor

 

"They definitely have the capacity to surveil Prigozhin and they’re certainly doing it as he moves around both countries. It’s a way of being dismissive of him—he’s old news."

"The fascinating thing for me is that Prigozhin felt comfortable traveling back to Russia without, apparently, an overwhelming fear that he would be assassinated."

David Silbey, associate professor, Cornell