Ruminations

Blog dedicated primarily to randomly selected news items; comments reflecting personal perceptions

Monday, May 25, 2026

Moscow's War: Terrorizing, Hunting, Killing Civilians -- Human Safari

 drones

"Located in southern Ukraine on the banks of the Dniepr River across from the Russian army, Kherson has become a hunting ground for what locals call a “human safari”." 
"The Russian forces are using drones to target civilians – whether they are on foot, driving, or even on bicycles. The drones they use are known as FPVs, for “first-person view”, meaning the operators see what the drone sees in real time."
"For residents of Kherson, these drones have become a daily threat."
"At least 577 civilians were killed by short-range drones in Ukraine in 2025, and more than 3,000 were injured, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU). Nearly 95% of civilian casualties were recorded in territory held by the Ukrainian government." 
"In an October 2025 report focusing on the Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, the UN Commission of Inquiry of Ukraine found that 'Russian armed forces’ short-range drone attacks ... amount to a crime against humanity ... and war crimes'."
France 24
 
"It starts in the evening. Sometimes, from 8 or 9pm, they start terrorising us. Sirens go off, drones start hitting."
"But in our practice, based on statistics, the peak is around 2, 3 or 4 am. That is when most strikes occur, when people are peacefully sleeping." 
Maryna Averina, spokesperson, State Emergency Service of Ukraine, Odessa region 
Ukrainian FPV drone with a spool of fibre-optic cable.
FPV drone with a spool of fibre-optic cable. Image credit: Armyinform.com.ua
 
The buzz of drones alert Ukrainians of incoming drones equipped with cameras, rigged out with explosives and steered by joysticks in the hands of a Russian military operative a mere dozen kilometres' distance. They know from experience that they will be tracked, chased and attacked by these drones. Familiarity with the phenomenon and the drones' random, unexpected presence, they are familiarly named as Russia's 'human safari' scheme of population demoralization. Translated; a terror campaign begun in Kherson which evolved with new technology, then spread to border areas within Ukraine. 
 
This hunting down of civilians for the quite obvious purpose of a reign of terror, part of the Kremlin's 
'special military operation', in Vladimir Putin's obsession with destroying Ukraine as a sovereign state, while annexing southern Ukraine bit by bit as it did in 2022 when it captured Crimea in 2014. The United Nations has recognized the deadly tactic as a war crime, one that has crossed the border from one army battling another, to an army deliberately targeting civilians, in opposition to international prohibitions on targeting civilian populations. 
 
"It's a really horrible problem the Russians are imposing on Ukrainian civilians in these towns where they're using the human safari tactic", observed Robert Tollast, military sciences researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, London. Russians just across the Dnieper River began two years ago deploying cheap commercial first-person view (FPV) quadcopters to stalk and strike civilians as they went about the course of their days; biking, standing at bus stops, walking their dogs.
 
The spool of fibre-optic cable is usually quite large.
The spool of fibre-optic cable is usually quite large. Image credit: Armyinform.com.ua
 
Begun in Kherson, by April of 2025 the attacks killed 42 civilians each month, injuring close to 300, according to an independent UN human rights commission report. The campaign, determined investigators, was ordered by Moscow for the purpose of systematically terrorizing the population, amounting to "murder as a crime against humanity". At  first Ukraine took to jamming -- flooding the drone frequencies with empty radio noise, which worked for a while.  Until Russia equipped the drones with fibre-optic filament.
 
These hair-thin tethers unspool in flight for 19 kilometres; with small payloads even further, as they carry video to the operator who commands the drone in return. Equipped with these filaments that bypass radio signals, the drones could no longer be jammed. It was  found that if someone knowledgeable, like a soldier, could grasp a filament it could be snapped through a combination of loops and pinches. Someone in the right place at the right time who could muster the speed required to pull off that simple solution could save another person's life, as the drone, the integrity of the fibre-optic threat broken, could no longer relay video and messages back to the operator. 
"The Russian drones are said to “zero in on vulnerable, everyday locations: crowded markets, petrol stations, cafes, post offices, and humanitarian aid centers.” Some days, the drones target ambulances, police officers, nurses, doctors, and garbage collectors. "
"However, most days, the drones “hunt and wound or kill commuters on their way to work, or target pensioners eking out survival in the winter cold.” The drones also scatter butterfly anti-personnel mines “along streets, courtyards, playgrounds and public squares.” These small, camouflaged mines are hard to see, easily blending in with leaves and brush, and have led to a rise in foot amputations."
"The attacks have become so prevalent that civilians are unable to leave their houses during the day unless there is heavy rain or overcast conditions that prevent the drones from flying or decrease their accuracy. When they do venture out, many residents carry radio frequency drone detectors [devices designed to detect the radio frequencies used to control drones] and only travel after dark. "
Articles of War  
Civilians
Articles of War
 

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Friday, April 25, 2025

Vladimir, STOP!

"I am not happy with the Russian strikes in KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing."
"Vladimir, STOP!"
"5000 soldiers a week are dying."
"Let's get the Peace Deal DONE!" 
"I thought it might be easier to deal with Zelenskyy. So far it's been harder, but that's OK. It's all right."
U.S. President Donald Trump
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"The principle of Ukraine's territorial integrity is not something that can be negotiated."
"This was the position taken last week and reiterated yesterday in London in a meeting of a similar format."
Christophe Lemoine, French Foreign Ministry spokesman
Kyiv was struck by Russia with an hours-long barrage of missiles and drones with a dozen people killed and 90 injured. So much for the progress being made by the Trump administration's efforts for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. But a rare rebuke by Trump to Putin was at the very least, refreshing when Trump's frustration led him to lash out at Putin. This, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy got similar treatment for his intransigence in refusing to allow Moscow to take full possession of Ukrainian territory ill-gotten by Putin's illegal invasion. 

President Zelenskyy was accused of prolonging the "killing field" when he refused to surrender the Crimea Peninsula to Putin, to achieve a peace agreement. Occupied by Russia which annexed Crimea in 2014. Since February 2022 Mr. Zelenskyy has said repeatedly that recognizing occupied territory as Russia's represents a Ukrainian red line. Ukraine agreed to a U.S. ceasefire proposal 44 days ago, as an initial step in a negotiated peace, Mr. Zelenskyy reminded Trump, yet attacks by Moscow had simply continued.
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Trump's irritation with Moscow is evident in his reaction, given that the American president has stated repeatedly that Russia -- the conflict's aggressor -- is more willing to get a deal done than is Ukraine. In his negotiations with both leaders in the conflict, Trump's focus has been  on which of the two has leverage. Putin, he decided, has "the cards", and Zelenskyy does not, he has repeatedly said, taking steps in a cooperative relationship with Putin, a man he has long admired. A strongman attracted to others like himself.
 
Norway, a NATO member and supporter of Ukraine, with its 198-kilometre border with Russia, has reason to fear that Russia's  territorial ambitions will not stop with Ukraine. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store wrote in a social media post his intention to underscore during talks with Trump that "close contact between Norway and the USA is crucial. We must contribute to a lasting and just peace in Ukraine". 
"There is only one answer we are waiting for: Does President Putin agree to an unconditional ceasefire?"
"The Americans' anger should focus on just one person: President Putin."
"[Putin should] stop lying [when he claims to want] peace." 
French President Emmanuel Macron
Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is set to visit Moscow for a new round of talks with Putin; representing their fourth meeting since January. NATO leaders will meet in the Netherlands in two months' time. France's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lemoine, asked whether France is in agreement with comments by Trump that Ukraine's position was responsible for prolonging the war, responded that Ukrainians demonstrated they are open to negotiations. Russia, on the other hand, continues its strikes.
 
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Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Ending the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Trump's Way

"There is not any leader in the world who can really make a deal with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin without us, about us."
"He's a liar. He doesn't want any peace."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
 
"We'll be having meetings at the direction of the president [Donald Trump], and hopefully we'll make some really good progress with regard to Russia-Ukraine."
"I think Ukraine is part of the talks. I don't think this is about excluding anybody."
U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff 

"[Putin] wants to stop fighting. We each talked about the strengths of our respective nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together."
"I'd love to have them back [in the G8]. I think it was a mistake to throw them out. They should be sitting at the table. I think Putin would love to be back."
"I think he wants to end it and they want to end it fast."
"Zelenskyy wants to end it, too."
U.S. President Donald J. Trump 
President Donald Trump leaves after speaking during the signing of executive orders at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, on Tuesday.
 
American officials and their Russian counterparts arranged to meet in Saudi Arabia for direct negotiations to begin, over ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Kyiv and its allies throughout Europe were left to swiftly arrive at a strategy for their own security. Which led France to call an emergency meeting of European leaders in Paris. Their first encounter with the Trump team at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend left them reeling in disbelief and confusion when senior U.S. officials including Vice-President J.D. Vance gave up mixed signals on support for Kyiv and relieved them of the expectation that Kyiv and Europe would be present for negotiations on Ukraine's future.
 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was somewhat less than pleased, responding that Kyiv would never view a deal arrived at without his presence as acceptable, and rejected an American proposal to access Ukraine's rare earth minerals which offered in return no security guarantees. In Abu Dhabi on the weekend, President Zelenskyy signed a trade deal with the UAE, meeting Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to "maximally liberalize access to the UAE market for almost all Ukrainian goods".
 
Sheikh Mohammed spoke of "the UAE's keenness to support everything that would lead to a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and continue working to mitigate its humanitarian repercussions." Contrast that with the White House expressing its interest in backing President Zelenskyy's bid to take possession of the US$300 billion in frozen Russian assets held in European banks, as long as Ukraine spends the money on U.S. military hardware.
 
To place matters in further perspective, contrary to Mr. Trump's claims, the U.S. has not been the primary financial contributor to Ukraine's pushback against Moscow. Over the past three years, Europe has contributed 132.3 billion euros ($197 billion,) pledging an open-ended commitment to continue for as long as it may take. As for the U.S. contribution, it totalled $114.2 euros with most of that funding remaining in the United States, representing purchases from U.S. arms manufacturers. 
 
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US, Russia agree to try to end war without Ukraine at the table High-level delegations from the U.S. and Russia held talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday over the fate of Ukraine, the negotiations taking place without Kyiv's participation.    Evelyn Hockstein/Pool via AP
 
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President Trump concurred with the Kremlin that Ukrainians should not have been encouraged to approach NATO for membership, that the resulting conflict was entirely Ukraine's fault, along with that of Joe Biden's offence to Russia's anti-NATO 'red line' sensitivities regarding Ukraine, which has never been a proper country with a history and culture of its very own, claimed by Vladimir Putin. And of course, the one-sixth of Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia will remain with Russia...
 
Leaving Ukrainians in an agony of anxiety over what else Trump might conceivably defer to Putin on, to Ukraine's detriment, in his quest to win accolades for ending the war, as he proposed during his presidential election campaign. And nor does he apparently feel that Russia should be responsible for war reparations after levelling Ukrainian cities, causing the death of up to 57,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, with over 250,000 having been injured. 

According to President Trump, European troops should be prepared to police U.S. "security guarantees" in Ukraine, at Ukraine's expense. He proposed making it simpler for Ukraine to earn the required funding for that initiative with "the equivalent of like $500 billion worth of rare earths". Vice-President Vance did his part in destabilizing/astonishing European leaders over their harbouring of misguided fears relating to Russia and China. "What I worry about is the threat from within -- the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America."
 
Beyond astonishing... 

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Trump falsely claims Ukraine started war with Russia CNN still from video

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Friday, August 25, 2023

Will The Real Vladimir Putin Please Come Forward!!

"With 'Putin's appearances at the same time in different places, evident differences in movements and now missing where 'Putin' has his watch, it is time for mainstream media to call Putin out: He uses one or two doubles."
Anders Aslund, economist, adjunct professor, Georgetown University, Washington
 
"You have probably heard that he has very many doubles who work instead of him while he sits in a bunker. Yet another lie."
"You see yourselves what our president is like: he always was, and is now, mega-active -- those who work next to him can hardly keep up with him."
"His energy can only be envied. His health can, God willing, only be wished for."
"Of course, he doesn't sit in any bunkers. This is also a lie."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
An 'active work' appearance from the despot doppelganger was present
Conspiracy theorists would have it that Russia's strongman is mortally ill, perhaps on the brink of death. Of course that might also be wishful thinking. But wishing won't make it so. The dictator that President Putin so admired, Stalin, was the subject of wishful thinking too. After he suffered a stroke and a heart attack those who jostled to become his successor certainly wanted him to get on with his appointment with death. It's entirely possible that Putin, who trusts no one, views everyone around him as a possible assassin. He plans to strike first. And, infamously, he does.

Ill health aside, and covering a serious health condition by having someone (or someones) sit in for him in public -- look-alike decoys -- could also represent barriers between Mr. Putin and any potential assassin. As for lingering behind in a bunker, that too is absurdly unlikely, given Russia's president's personal ownership of multi-million-dollar mansions tailored to his sense of luxurious entitlement and where he can retreat in comfort and security.

Anton Gerashchenko, a senior Ukrainian official and adviser to his country's minister of internal affairs commented on a video where Putin appeared to forget which wrist he wore his watch on, during a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects this past Tuesday. "Or that isn't Putin?" he asked. 
 
Mr. Putin's habit of wearing his watch on his right wrist tweaked observers to the fact that in the video he appeared to check the time looking for his watch on his left wrist as someone who habitually wears a watch on the left would do. Finding nothing there, he awkwardly dropped his left arm.

Previous peculiar incidents have given people reason to believe that the Russian president makes use of a body double. Rumours were fuelled when a photograph circulated of the Russian president with Chechen republic head Ramzan Kadyrov, with Putin appearing bloated, his skin mottled. This wasn't the Putin of shirtless horse-back riding, by any measure.

Image
"Kadyrov posted a photo with Putin. Peskov confirmed that the meeting took place yesterday. In the photo, Kadyrov is very large and overwhelms Putin, who looks very small and old. By the way, how many days did Kadyrov spend in quarantine before the meeting? Or is it not…" Anton Gerashchenko

 

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Saturday, July 08, 2023

The Mystery that is Russia's Prigozhin

exp  Where is prigozhin melissa bell pkg 070703aseg1 cnni world_00022220.png
 
Images of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in wigs, fake beards and wearing foreign military uniforms have been leaked by Russian security services. The mercenary mutineer may have been ordered exempt from punishment for leading an apprehended insurrection last week by his former financier and supporter for whom the Wagner Group was a handy tool of non-state interference in foreign conflicts, but that decision not to hold him accountable for his attempted putsch, does not obviate the need to hold  him in contempt and to persuade the Russian public devoted to his strongman image that he is a defanged clown.
"It’s great that Russian authorities don’t really care about a person who launched an armed mutiny against them."
"So where is he exactly? With the money, weapons and Wagner mercenaries?"
Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs
 
"The thought that immediately comes to mind is this is a sign of Putin’s weakness."
"[This shows that] there are various factions that Putin has to placate."
"[Prigozhin] has supporters within the power structure that Putin can’t afford to cross."
"[It] lends credence to the view that Putin has been weakened by all of this. Maybe he clearly is stumbling."
Glenn Carle, ex-CIA spy who worked in Russia  

"Even though there is a law providing for 15 years in prison if you speak against the war if Prigozhin maintains his freedom, it would mean that an actual mutineer will have been allowed to go free."
"[Russian citizens are likely] as confused as the rest of us about this.That can’t be good for Putin."
Ex-CIA acting director John McLaughlin
Why is Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin back in Russia?
The Kremlin promised not to prosecute Yevgeny Prigozhin for the rebellion after reaching an agreement that he would halt the uprising and go to Belarus. AP
 
Russian state television aired footage of a police raid of Prigozhin's St.Petersburg home, showing large quantities of cash, gold and weapons being discovered, along with props such as the wigs and fake documents.  Prigozhin's personal photograph albums were mined for photos of him wearing a beard sans moustache, favoured by devout Muslims. Wagner, Prigozhin's brainchild, handsomely funded by Putin's Kremlin, operated in Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
 
Since then the Russian proxy military group has fought in Syria, Libya, Central African Republic and Sudan. Men in tactical gear were shown on the state news channel, in Prighozin's sumptuous mansion, collecting an estimated $8.8 million in Russian and American banknotes and gold bars. There are also cupboards hoarding wigs and high-powered firearms along with passports with Prigozhin's photograph, but under assumed names. 

Of Prigozhin himself there have been scant sightings since his march on Moscow on June 24. Reportedly, he collected the choicest of his confiscated weapons in person along with his driver, from investigators in St.Petersburg. Despite the agreement that he would be free from prosecution and would be given safe haven in Belarus, its president, Aleksandr Lukashenko denied that Prigozhin is in Belarus, but returned instead to St. Petersburg. 
 
In the mansion a photo was hanging on a wall, of a lineup of decapitated heads. An oversized souvenir sledgehammer could also be seen with the inscription "for important negotiations". The sledgehammer is associated with the Wagner mercenaries, a symbol of its troops' use of the tool to beat defectors to death.

Prighozin's return to St. Petersburg fuels speculation he retains powerful allies in Russia, hostile reports on Russian state television, aside. It was reported that police had returned a "couple of tons" of cash and gold to Prigozhin's possession, that his driver picked up the funds in St.Petersburg, while Prigozhin was attending a meeting in Moscow.

The Russian general in charge of liaison with Wagner, Sergey Surovikin, known to be a close associate of Prigozhin, is suddenly also gone from public view, having last appeared on the morning of the mutiny in a video appeal for Prigozhin and his fighters to cease and desist. General Surovikin was shown on the video with an absence of rank insignia on his uniform, unshaven, speaking slowly. Speculation arose that the video was filmed u nder duress.

Reports have emerged that the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs ran an inquiry into levels of public support for Prigozhin through gauging social media posts and internet searches. Ukrainian intelligence intercepted the findings that suggest 17 of Russia's 46 regions supported Prigozhin, leaving Vladimir Putin with support from 21 regions, eight remaining split in loyalty. While Moscow seemed to back the Russian president, his home city of St.Petersburg was prepared to throw its support to the Wagner chief.

Why is Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin back in Russia
Experts are divided on what this means for Russian president Vladimir Putin. Reuters
 
"Despite Peskov’s statement to the contrary, I am sure that the Kremlin is quite capable of tracking Prigozhin’s movements and that it knows precisely where he is every minute of the day."
"I think Peskov, and the Putin regime more broadly, is trying to signal that Prigozhin isn’t so significant a threat anymore. Maybe next week, Peskov will start claiming that there really wasn’t a mutiny at all and that statements about it are all Western propaganda."
Mark N Katz, George Mason university professor
 
"They definitely have the capacity to surveil Prigozhin and they’re certainly doing it as he moves around both countries. It’s a way of being dismissive of him—he’s old news."
"The fascinating thing for me is that Prigozhin felt comfortable traveling back to Russia without, apparently, an overwhelming fear that he would be assassinated."
David Silbey, associate professor, Cornell
 

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Sunday, June 04, 2023

A Palace Fit for a Russian Czar

"You can live there. There is sewage, amenities, very sturdy walls."
"It's a fully fledged bunker you can hide in."
Georgy Alburov, Navalny ally

"These tunnels are not bunkers. For it to be properly secure you have to be able to close it off."
"I have a suspicion that's what we're talking about here [series of tunnels designed to evacuate in case of an attack]."
"The whole Gelendzhik palace is a monument to excessive luxury -- with everything else you've got, why shouldn't you have a travelator [moving walkway in one of the tunnels] to take you to the beach?"
Mark Galeotti, author Putin's Wars: From Crimea to Ukraine
 
"Putin has a lot of anxiety about being the not-entirely-legitimate leader of Russia. So knowing that his legitimacy is not entirely secured by elections, he is going to seek to maximize his personal safety through a complex of well-defended personal residences."
"We have to see this as part of a long confrontation with the West that has marked the last 13 or 14 years of Putin's life,"
"The two times there has been a big transition in Russian history — 1917 and 1991 — the status of the capital city and the leader's position there has been a big issue. Putin is solving for that contingency by establishing a network of residences that are as far from the center as possible. So a tunnel system within the Black Sea complex makes a lot of sense. Even without an active threat, he's going to be worrying about this eventuality."
"With the war in Ukraine, there's speechmaking, there's propaganda, there's exaggeration — there's this performative aspect that plays to Russia's domestic politics. But this is also deadly real. Putin perceives himself as being engaged in a confrontation with the West. The nuclear dimension is an important part of that. He knows he is standing on top of a volcano. He doesn't seem to be so psychopathic as to initiate a nuclear conflict — he has grandchildren — but he's been standing on that edge for a very long time. These tunnels, this bunker, is a part of that." 
Michael C. Kimmage, former State Department official on Russia and Ukraine policy
 
"This tunnel set-up has all kinds of safety and security. There's a fire system. There's water, there's sewer. This is intended for someone to survive or escape."
"These images are not blueprints. They are closer to architectural drawings. They show you the intent, the flow, and the premise of these spaces."
"Those trays could be for communications, lighting, power — anything that goes through a cable or tube. It's an awful lot of cable just for the tunnel itself."
"So it could be some kind of back-up system for the palace complex."
Thaddeus Gabryszewski, structural engineer familiar with defensive structures  
Collage of Vladimir Putin, and his black sea palace surrounded by floor plans/diagrams of a doomsday bunker
Diagrams showing a tunnel complex beneath Putin's Black Sea palace are evidence of just how long the Russian leader has been fixated on the possibility of existential conflict with the West.
Contributor/Getty Images; FBK; Metro 2000 via Wayback Machine; Alyssa Powell/Insider

Metro Style posted plans online, the engineering firm behind the project to build tunnel constructions beneath Russian President Vladimir Putin's Black Sea palace, about 50 metres below the surface. An underground complex built prior to Moscow's seizure of Crimea in 2014, before Vladimir Putin became persona non grata throughout Europe with his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The palace, reputed to have cost $1.7 billion to build has its own church, ice rink, casino and hookah lounge, the entire edifice stretching across 190,000 square feet overlooking the Black Sea.
 
Church on the palace complex

Business Insider first reported the existence of the tunnels and knowledge of the tunnels became known only when the defunct construction firm that built them posted online diagrams meant to register as proof of the quality of their construction. The images were published on the Metro Style website in early 2010, describing the project as an "underground complex for a resort" close to Gelendzhik, the closest town to the palace -- but without identifying the palace itself or its owner, the president of Russia.

Diagrams give details of bunkers with ventilation systems, sewage and fresh water supplies, with walls reinforced 15-inch concrete shells. The complex in its entirety spans 6,500 square feet, with an elevator shaft connecting the two tunnels to the complex; the lower one featuring a walkway leading to the beach below. Cable racks that could be used to carry electricity, lighting and fibre-optic cables into a command post are in the lower tunnel, with exits from both tunnels visible on the cliff face rising up from the sea to the palace.

Map showing location of Putin's palace, and the tunnel entrances
An aerial view of the palace complex and the three tunnel entrances.
Google Earth; annotations by Insider

The diagrams, once removed from Metro Style's website, remained visible on the Wayback Machine, an archive of online content circulated in a community of 'diggers' representing Russian citizens who visit and document forbidden sites. One anonymous such digger claiming he belonged to a "Sect Z" group shared the images "because we are tired of Putin's stupid face and want to show his paranoid underground transport", he told Business Insider, who released them for public scrutiny. He hoped, he said, that the images would serve to hasten the "end of the regime".

The organization headed by jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny -- Putin's leading Russian political opponent -- published an expose of Vladimir Putin's Black Sea palace in 2021. Revelations that led to thousands of Russians protesting on the streets, with some holding up gold-painted toilet brushes, referring to a $1,200 utensil reportedly found in the residence. The palace, surrounded by 17,000 acres of woods is permanently protected by the Russian president's security team, is not owned by Vladimir Putin, according to his pledges of innocence of knowledge of the palace.

A depiction of one of the bathrooms based on the floor plans.

A childhood friend of Mr. Putin's, billionaire Arkady Rotenberg, claimed the property belonged to him and the president had no connection with the palace, not long after Navalny's investigation laid bare to the Russian public the megalomaniac czarist ambitions exemplified by a series of huge estates and palaces, the property of the Russian president. In denials put forward by the Kremlin of the palaces having any association with the president of Russia, the Kremlin failed to address why it was that the palace remains under 24-hour guard by state security forces, protected by a no-fly zone.
 
Navalny's video already drew attention to areas of the building where building work was taking place
Navalny's video already drew attention to areas of the building where building work was taking place   YouTube/Alexei Navalny

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Thursday, September 01, 2022

The Russian Liberator

"The country was loaded to the brim with weapons. And it would have immediately pushed the country into a civil war [had he attempted to restrain satellite Soviet nations from freeing themselves from the grip of the Soviet Union]."
"I see myself as a man who started the reforms that were necessary for the country and for Europe and the world."
"I consider the decision of your Committee [Nobel Peace Prize] as a recognition of the great international importance of the changes now under way in the Soviet Union, and as an expression of confidence in our policy of new thinking, which is based on the conviction that at the end of the 20th century force and arms will have to give way to a major instrument in world [affairs]."
Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev
Two men in suits and glasses sit side by side at a table in front of microphones. They are looking at each other. Two large flags, American and Soviet, hang behind them.
This photo taken in July 1991 shows then-U.S. president George Bush, left, and Gorbachev during a press conference in Moscow concluding the U.S.-Soviet Summit dedicated to disarmament. (Mike Fisher/AFP/Getty Images)
 
A born conciliator, Mikhail Gorbachev was, nonetheless, a committed Communist and as supreme leader of the Soviet Union he had the authority to match his desire to update the USSR, to loosen some of its strictures on personal freedoms of its citizens with his intentions. He wanted to create an atmosphere that would be conducive to opening markets to expansion as well, to lift the USSR out of poverty and begin to institute reforms to bring economic stability to the empire he ruled. Never might he have imagined that his forthright admission the USSR was mired in a straitjacket of tyranny but it must be preserved and altered, would lead to its dissolution.

His intention was to salvage the empire he saw crumbling around him, one that he was committed to, but could nonetheless envision the beneficial effects of instituting new and looser structures within the command perimeter. His vision was flawed only by his inability to foresee the near future. He was celebrated globally for his previously unheard-of efforts to open a closed society to scrutiny and change and to begin fostering improved relations with the West.
 
Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev
Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev signing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987 Getty Images
 
His legacy, when the dust settled, was to inspire Soviet satellites to break the mould of control and dependence the Soviet Union had trapped them in, and one after the other they responded to Mr. Gorbachev's goodwill by abandoning their satellite roles and declaring their internationally recognized sovereign political rights as separate nations. The Eastern European colossus faltered, failed and fell under the executive decision-making that gave  hope to tens of millions of non-Russians and astonished and disappointed millions of Russians.

When Mr. Gorbachev realized he had walked into a trap of his own oblivious making, it was too late to try to stop the bleeding. And nor could he consider from a humanitarian standpoint, exerting the power and strength of Russia to staunch the bleeding. For, as he reminisced years later, he feared chaos erupting in the nuclear-armed country and the resulting loss of untold numbers of lives. 

The end of the Cold War era of mutual fear and suspicion and mutual-assured-destruction that teetered more than once on the edge of loosing nuclear weapons, brought a Nobel Peace Prize to this man who watched in dismay as his tentative steps toward loosening restrictions and out-facing corruption, transformed his benign intentions into a rapid decline of the empire he had inherited for a brief period but had in that briefest of periods, completely upturned; not only the USSR but Eastern Europe and the entire international community.

Russian politicians and the ordinary Russian-on-the-street all held Mr. Gorbachev responsible for the dismantling of the Soviet Union through his "Glasnost" and "Perestroika" (openness and restructuring) initiatives. In the process, he freed political prisoners, permitted open debate and multi-candidate elections. Russians were granted the freedom to travel, religious persecution was brought to a halt. He reduced nuclear arsenals and established closer ties with the West. When Eastern European satellite states shed their Communist regimes, he did nothing in reaction.
 
Man looks at a deceased elderly man who's lying in an open casket
Putin pays his last respects near the coffin of Gorbachev at the Central Clinical Hospital in Moscow on Thursday. (Russian pool/The Associated Press)
 
With these releases of the Soviet tentacles on satellite states, came an increase in ethnic tensions and resentments. In his later years, this man who substantially changed the world order in his time both criticized and praised the current Russian President, Vladimir Putin. Who, on assuming power from Mr. Gorbachev's former protege, Boris Yeltsin, set about dismantling all of Mr. Gorbachev's and Mr. Yeltsin's democratic achievements.

Mr. Gorbachev was invested in avoiding war. Mr. Putin's attitude was that war was necessary to begin the task of re-establishing the satellite network among Russia's unwilling neighbours in its near-abroad, which once formed part of its powerful empire. In his later years, an ailing Mr. Gorbachev retreated from public view and had less to say about his nation's politics. At age 91 he was admitted in failing health to the Central Clinical Hospital where he died after a long illness, two days ago.

A man wearing glasses, with a large, red birthmark on his head, leans into speak to another man on his right.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to former President of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev during a news conference in Schleswig, Germany, Dec. 21, 2004. Gorbachev died Tuesday. (Christian Charisius/Reuters)

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Thursday, May 05, 2022

Singing From The Same Hymnal With Slight Deviations

Pope Francis arrives to attend a ceremony at the Maronite Cathedral of Our Lady of Graces in Nicosia, Cyprus, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021. AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino
AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino     Pope Francis arrives to attend a ceremony at the Maronite Cathedral of Our Lady of Graces in Nicosia, Cyprus
"I listened and then told him: I don't understand anything about this."
"Brother, we are not state clerics, we cannot use the language of politics but that of Jesus. We are pastors of the same holy people of God."
"Because of this, we must seek avenues of peace, to put an end to the firing of weapons."
"The patriarch cannot transform himself into Putin's altar boy."
"[The] barking of NATO at Russia's door [may have forced Putin to invade]. An anger that I don’t know if you can say was provoked, but maybe facilitated."
Pope Francis

"Patriarch Kirill recalled that at the end of the Soviet era, Russia received an assurance that NATO would not move an inch eastwards. However, this promise was broken, even the former Soviet Baltic republics joined NATO."
"Russia could not and cannot allow this to happen."
Russian Orthodox Church
Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill delivers the Christmas Liturgy in the Christ the Saviour Cathedral in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Jan. 6, 2022. AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko
Russian Orthodox Church says Pope Francis 'chose the wrong tone' over 'Putin's altar boy' comment

So recently reconciled, just as recently distancing themselves from each other's positions. The inescapable political dimensions aligned with religious convictions has placed two elite ranking clerics, each of whom assumes the position of shepherd over vast flocks of followers at odds with one another. The caution of diplomacy appears to have fled the scene when Pope Francis spoke frankly of the division between the world of religion and that of politics.
 
Except that for the fact that his further statements bridged that division. And has left simmering resentment of his sentiments and clumsy analogy linking Patriarch Kirill with Russian President Vladimir Putin to the extent that the Patriarch is fully in support of Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine. Not the least bit reflective of a high-placed and esteemed leader of the Eastern Orthodox Church's assumed leading concern; that of peace and brotherhood.
 
Nothing can quite lead to a justification of Mr. Putin's order to the Russian military to launch an invasion of its neighbour. In the process destroying entire towns and villages, civic infrastructure, bombing hospitals, rail stations, schools, apartment buildings and even supposedly safe corridors arranged for people to escape the confines of a besieged city. And then there is the rape, the looting, the incidental murders.
 
Pope Francis himself failed to condemn the very leader by name when he despaired over the conflict. Somehow finding it politically diplomatic to abhor the war in its strident brutality but overlooking the mention of exactly who was responsible for launching it. And now buying the Russian president's grievance at NATO's expansion to excuse the rage a despotic ruler succumbed to, taking his revenge over a perceived betrayal of unity with Russia, to innocent civilian populations suffering the onslaught.

There is, thus, a degree of agreement between the two clerics; Pope Francis's on a more modest scale than Patriarch Kirill's, but each sympathetic to Russia's president's paranoia and purpose in choosing to destroy Ukraine to teach his Slavic cousins a lesson. Pope Francis, in his media interview in Italy described his conversation with his Orthodox counterpart who listed off justifications for the war, in a pre-printed agenda he read from.

The Russian Orthodox Church had its own version of the Zoom conference between the two elder Church statesmen: "It's regrettable that a month and a half after the conversation with Patriarch Kirill, Pope Francis chose the  wrong tone to convey the content of this conversation." It was, after all, a confidence betrayal of a colleague, housed in language more fitting to a flippant exchange between two low-ranking sport figures than the top echelon of Christianity.

How can they bring peace and harmony, in other words, to their parishioners when they themselves bicker between their chosen positions? In setting the record straight, the Orthodox Church added "the Pope said, in agreement with the Patriarch, that 'the Church must not use the language of politics, but the language of Jesus'." A senior cleric which has over 100 million followers, as opposed to an infinitely more senior cleric whose following numbers 1.34 billion.

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Monday, April 25, 2022

Soviet-Style Totalitarian Rule

"This idea was born last year and now it has become especially relevant."
"Similar work has already been carried out, but now it will be co-ordinated by the Kremlin's domestic political bloc."
"Through this system, employees at all levels will be explained both their goals and objectives and the national policies and, at the right time, 'signals' will be sent to the Kremlin from this network."
"Each of its divisions has recently appointed a person responsible for informing employees about activities in support of the Russian army, and installations for the placement of various visual content are descending from the head office for this."
Kommersant newspaper report 
Vladimir Putin
In a plan that harks back to the paranoia of Josef Stalin's Soviet Union in the 1930s, these "political officers" will also push Vladimir Putin's political agenda and ensure official support for his war in Ukraine stays on track Credit: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
 
Political commissars have been assigned to Russian government ministries and state-owned companies. Their vital task is to be the eyes and ears of the Kremlin, and their reports will be rendered directly to the Presidential Administration, the beating heart of Vladimir Putin's Kremlin. An old tactic given new life under the special circumstances of President Putin's 'special military operation' in Ukraine. A military operation so special it has, in three months, claimed the lives of fifteen-thousand Russian servicemen, a significantly smaller number of their Ukrainian counterparts, and a much larger number of Ukrainian civilians.
 
This is, needless to say, a reality that must not be whispered within Russia. For to do so, to speak of 'war', to mention in hushed tones 'war crimes', and to hint at the fact that despite Vladimir Putin's pride in equipping his military with the latest technological gadgetry in updated materiel and state-of-the-art munitions, ships, planes, and missiles, there has been a desperate need to dust off Soviet-era tanks and other military equipment to make up for those lost to Ukrainian military prowess standing firm against the Russian invasion.
 
Mention any of this. Protest audibly. Stand in a collaborative protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on a Moscow street, and expect arrest and the possibility of a 15-year prison sentence for sedition. Now, political commissars are tasked to report back to the president's office what they gain in knowledge of the "emotional state and mood" of government staff. Anger and paranoia rule the day in the presidential suite at the Kremlin.
 
The "political officers" are tasked as well with acquainting employees with the virtues of the invasion, and the intention to 'rescue' Ukrainians from the talons of the neo-Nazis governing them from Kyiv. The 'liberation' of Ukraine is uppermost in the tender regard of the Russian president, and he wants everyone to be aware of that singular fact. The trusted political officers, prepared to propagandize the issue in the workplace, have been elevated to the rank of deputy minister.
 
One can judge just how nervous the Kremlin is about the potential for dissent from a wider public, by the fact that even though most of the Russian public is supportive of the invasion, as a good-neighbour act by Russia for their Ukrainian 'cousins', particularly those in Russian government ranks, concern remains with respect to hidden dissent. In a country where criticism of the war is strictly banned, and discussion of any kind focusing on casualties is summarily suppressed. The threat of a long prison sentence can have that effect, in any event.
 
The Kremlin is resolved that the Z logo of the major battle group in Ukraine be popularized and become dear to the hearts of the Russian public. To that end, posters celebrating the mission of the 'special operation' and T-shirts feature the Z logo are being made available. Broadcasts of support for the invasion run continuously on state-operated television. The new initiatives boost a high level of state control, paralleling Stalin's network of informers; no surprise, given Mr. Putin's stated admiration for Stalin as a great man and superb leader.
 
The official narrative of the special operation has had repercussions as well on education curricula. Publishers have been placed on notice that textbooks must delete references to Ukraine. "You can mention how we saved Kyiv, but it is no longer possible to talk about any independence of Ukraine as a country", commented one publishing source. Another source revealed his publishing house was forced to re-write 15 percent of its textbooks, deleting references to Ukraine. 

Putin Taps Into Russia’s Centuries of Paranoid Aggression- Photo: The Daily Beast

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Sunday, March 27, 2022

The Cost of Energy Dependency

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a government meeting via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on Wednesday. Putin said Russia will only accept payments in rubles for gas deliveries to "unfriendly countries," which include all EU members and the U.S.   Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

"I have decided to implement ... a series of measures to switch payments — we'll start with that — for our natural gas supplies to so-called unfriendly countries into Russian rubles." 
"Russia will continue, of course, to supply natural gas in accordance with volumes and prices ... fixed in previously concluded contracts."
"The changes will only affect the currency of payment, which will be changed to Russian rubles."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

"At face value this appears to be an attempt to prop up the ruble by compelling gas buyers to buy the previously freefalling currency in order to pay."
Vinicius Romano, senior analyst, consultancy Rystad Energy

"It is unclear how easy it would be for European clients to switch their payments to rubles given the scale of these purchases."
"However, there are no sanctions in place that would prohibit payments of Russian gas in rubles."
Leon Izbicki, associate, consultancy Energy Aspects
AFP/Getty Images
Punishment and its sister spite have aided Russia in drawing up a list of 'unfriendly' countries who just happen to correspond to any imposing sanctions on Russia for its sudden invasion of Ukraine. Agreements with companies and individuals from the marked countries must be approved by a government commission. Some of the listed countries like the United States and Norway make no purchases of Russian gas and some others purchase so little they have no need of it whatever.

 
The list Russia has compiled includes but is not exclusive to the United States, European Union member states, Britain, Japan, Canada, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland and -- suppress that laugh -- Ukraine. Questions arise over whether this decision of Russia to impose this kind of 'penalty' would breach contract regulations agreed in euros.

"This would constitute a breach to payment rules included in the current contracts", a senior Polish government source complained, adding there is no intention on Poland's part to sign new contracts with Gazprom following the current long-term agreement's expiration in 2022. "I can't imagine we will agree to change the terms of that", he stressed.

Punishing Russia with sanctions and more sanctions for its misdeeds and now the incalculable horrors of a full-on conflict with Ukraine has given Vladimir Putin inspiration on pay-back. It's the steep price that comes with dependency. Without Russia's natural resources bonanza paying the freight for his technologically-updated war machinery inspiring him to the belief it'll be a quick in-and-out to achieve  his aspirations to help himself to Ukraine's territories, his level of confidence would be somewhat less.
 
In the full confidence of European dependence on Russia's gas and oil, Mr. Putin feels he's still holding aces.  His rubles demand from 'unfriendly' countries sent prices for European gas into the stratosphere on concerns the region's energy crunch would be exacerbated. Heating homes and powering up industries is of vital concern to any economy and so it is with Europe who in their fury over Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacted their own punishment on Russia.
 
To the EU's consideration of whether to sanction the Russian energy anchor, Putin took the initiative to snap back: Buy our currency or forget about acquiring our gas. Europe's need of Russian gas accounts for 40 percent of its total usage. Fluctuating between 200 million to 800 million euros daily so far in 2022. The demanded currency change has the potential to disrupt that trade, sending wholesale gas prices 30 percent steeper after the announcement.
 
Since February 24 when Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian currency has fallen about 20 percent. Major banks are wary of trading in Russian assets and some buyers of Russian gas in the European Union were unable to clarify how they would go about paying for gas under the new demand. 58 percent of Gazprom's sales of natural gas to Europe and other countries from January 27 were paid in euros, with U.S. dollars accounting for 39 percent of gross sales and sterling 3 percent. 

The European Commission plans to end reliance on Russian supplies of gas "well before 2030" and has started out with plans to cut its dependency by two-thirds this year. EU states, given their dependency on Russia's energy sector, however, have not agreed to sanction it. Germany's Economy Minister plans to discuss with his European partners a potential response to Moscow's gas payments announcement. Even while Germany's Habeck stated that the demand represented a breach of delivery contracts.
 
A Russian Gazprom vessel — a floating storage and regasification unit — is seen anchored offshore in the Baltic Sea near Kaliningrad, Russia, in early February. (Vitaly Nevar/Reuters)
"It's difficult, given the current economic situation, for Russian authorities to abandon sales of oil and gas to the Western countries."
"You can say, 'We do not trust euros or dollars,' but economically it's the same operation. Money is money."
Marcel Salikhov, president, Institute for Energy and Finance, Moscow

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