The Food Chain

In Ontario, consumers are enjoying fresh Niagara-grown peaches.  There's nothing quite like them for freshness and wonderful taste.  Like people everywhere in the world when seasonal crops come in they're looked forward to and hugely relished.  There are some commodities that consumers can obviously do without.  Food is not among them.

It was our impression that because Ontario had some unusual early spring weather conditions; a spate of days that were unseasonably hot causing blossoms to suddenly show on the trees earlier than usual, followed hard on a sudden cooling and frosty nights, we would see soft-fruit crops suffer.  Happily,that seems not to have occurred.

But we're halfway through the dog days of summer now, and extreme heat conditions have set in, and with those very hot days in Ontario has come a drier-than-normal summer.  Following hard on the heels of a deficiency of snow through the winter months and consequently not much of a spring melt.  Added to that, subsequent infrequent rainy days.

As concerned as we are about the continuous 30-degree Celsius days following hard on one another and the continuing lack of substantial rainfall, and what that means for area agriculture, the situation is much, much worse throughout a huge swathe of the United States.

Meteorologists have announced an atmospheric high-pressure ridge has mounted over the heart of U.S. corn and soybean producing states, preventing moisture from moving into the crop belt, as would be normal for this time of year - most years, other than 2012.  You have to go back over 60 years of weather-and-crop conditions to find anything remotely like it.

The buildup of unrelenting heat has caused record highs, that simply continue to exacerbate already-wrought conditions due to drought.  Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, among other crop-growing states have been hard-hit.  This is considered to be the most expansive drought in over a half-century.

It is not only frying vulnerable seasonal crops like corn and soybeans, but it is also drying up waterways.  "It will be dry and very hot in the area with temperatures in the 100s (degrees Fahrenheit) in St.Louis Sunday through Thursday, reaching 106F on Wednesday", warned a meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather.

There is little-to-no relief in sight.  Rain, if it does come, is at this point too late to help much of the affected crop areas.  They are beyond resuscitation.  And with a shortage of primary crops, bushels of the affected crops on the market are at a higher wholesale level than they've ever been.  Which not only raises their price at the roadside stall, but at the supermarket.

It will cost far more to produce all the food products that corn goes into, and that's a whole whack of commercial foods that people normally stock their pantries with.  And because of drying waterways with rivers and canals and lakes at lower-than-normal levels, shipping is more expensive.  Because of the changed draught levels, ships are warned to carry less cargo.

Consumers will see the price of dairy products increased because it will cost more to feed cows.  Because it will cost more to feed cattle the price of meat will also increase, and poultry as well, since they also consume grains.  And since the U.S. will have to depend on imports that cost will also impact the consumer.

The U.S. government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a forecast indicating no relief for the drought for at least the rest of this summer.  Canada's national weather forecaster, Environment Canada also has forecasted for continuing hot, dry weather for the remainder of the summer.

Canadian farmers in Ontario are not happy, but they're in better shape than farmers in the U.S. where 55% of the contiguous U.S. was held to be under moderate to extreme drought, representing the largest land area in the U.S. to be affected by a drought since 1956.

Basic food shortages will be augmented by importation of food from other international sources.  Anticipated sales of crops that usually enrich the U.S. cornbelt for one, simply will not occur this year.  The Canadian West will take up that slack.  Processed foods will soon rise in price considerably on the supermarket shelf.

It's more difficult when basic foods like fresh fruits and vegetables increase, however.  In North America consumers spend very little on nutritious food compared to other areas of the world.  That will change to some degree, but not ruinously, except for the poor who will find their food budget stretched more than they might wish it to be.

It is the under-developed parts of the world, hugely dependent on subsidized basic foods that are imported into their countries that will suffer the greatest harm under this situation of sudden scarcity.  Humanitarian aid agencies will find it more difficult and certainly more costly to obtain the amounts and types of food assistance required, and their food aid budget strained.