The Devastation of Cafe Culture

"It will be a slow and staged comeback for us as a lot of the offices in London are not coming back on until after summer, and some may even open only next year."
"If you feel like having a cappuccino, ordering it online doesn't really work as coffee is all about the social aspect."
Robert Robinson, Notes coffee-shop chain, London

"Manhattan traffic is still very light. The Hamptons is very busy."
"It makes sense for us. It's where many of our customers go."
Max Crowley, Bandit coffee shops, Midtown, Chelsea, New York

"We believe that consumers will move down price points, and turn more to cheaper, instant coffee, as they tighten their belts amidst the gloomy economic outlook."
"Consumers will continue to embrace home brew and instant coffee, both because they will still avoid heading out to cafes, and also because it is generally a cheaper alternative."
Taohai Lin, consumer and retail analyst, Fitch Solutions

Coffee drinkers. Photographer: Yorgos Karahalis/Bloomberg

Yet another victim falling prey to the dread SARS-CoV-2 virus. In a sense, not surprising. After all, the popularity of coffee houses, cafes and specialty coffee shops, just like restaurants and hotels and fast-food takeouts all got hit in a similar manner. With the initial wave of COVID-19 and the response mandating closure of all commercial enterprises where people tend to gather, why not coffee? Of course coffee's wake-up role could be redeemed by home brewing. After all, that's what people did before the sweep of the social/commercial coffee industry.


And while home brewing made sense during lockdown, since people were at home anyway and they had to feed themselves once they were satisfied they had acquired enough toilet paper for comfort of mind and body, producing home brewed coffee should have been a natural. It was, but it seems that hasn't rescued coffee; consumption has been down, worldwide. The wallop of caffeine was there, but somehow it just wasn't the same; the 'scene' was missing, the social aspect, the sang-froide.

Cafe culture simply cannot be successfully emulated in a home setting. That's it, in a nutshell. The U.S.Department of Agriculture has seen the writing on the wall, noting global coffee consumption set to fall. Yes, there's been a surge at grocery stores selling the beans for panic-pantry stuffing, but the shutdown of cafes and restaurants, typically accounting for roughly 25 percent of demand, was overwhelmed by under-demand.



Marex Spectron research has estimated that over 95 percent of the out-of-home market shut down at some point during the pandemic. And despite the gradual opening prefacing the second wave of COVID, consumers have held back, hesitant to go out in droves despite the reopening of economies. Morning commuters and afternoon breakers supported area coffee shops and they've been hard hit. During the pandemic Dunkin' Brands Group Inc. lost its breakfast crowd.

A format featuring "pickup" stores sans tables and chairs sees Starbucks Corp. retooling its model --  a stark departure from the ambiance that made its cafes such an appealingly popular hangout. An estimated 125 million people globally work on coffee crops for their livelihood; with a hobbled recovery for coffee demand presenting a troubling picture for a quick recovery. The future for Arabica beans could see a 10 percent descent in the second half of the year to about US90 cents a pound, according to Citigroup.

The International Coffee Organization warns of a prospect of child labour proliferating in areas of production in lock-step with poverty hitting local farmers. The fastest growing market for coffee is Asia where consumption at restaurants and cafes is expected to recover, as countries emerge from lockdowns. In Brazil, one of the country's largest cafe chains, Suplicy Cafes Especials was unable to pay farmers for cargoes already delivered. "Some of our franchising partners already warned us that they will close", the company's CEO Filipe Braga warned.

The Starbucks logo  downtown Chicago. (AP/Gene J. Puskar, )

McDonald's Corp. warns if a second wave hits, it could stop reopening plans of all dine-in services in its U.S. restaurants, while Starbucks is operating about 95 percent of its U.S. stores, even while sales were down 43 percent in May.

In London, robusta futures are down 13 percent, while Arabica beans slumped 25 percent in New York.

Dalgona coffee, anyone?