World Population

"The last time that global population declined was in the mid-14th century, due to the Black Plague."

"If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine."

"Africa and the Arab world will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States the dominant powers."

"Improvements in access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women [have led to the decrease in population]."

"Three factors drive the fertility rate -- the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime which is the largest determinant of population. The global total fertility rate is predicted to steadily decline, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, well below the minimum rate [2.1 live birth was per woman] considered necessary to maintain population numbers."

Stein Emil Vollset, professor of Global Health, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Japan ... Global population to decline in coming decades Photograph:( AFP )

The world population stands at the present time at roughly 7.8 billion people with experts believing the global population to peak at around 9.7 billion by 2064, before turning around to steadily decline to 8.79 billion by 2100. A new study recently published in the Lancet journal has for the first time revealed that the world's population is forecasted to decline, beginning in the next few decades, a phenomenon seen for the first time in centuries.

Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal and South Korea are among up to 23 countries that could realize a population decrease by 50 percent, resulting from low birthrates balanced against an aging population. China too, as the most populous country in the world, a country that has experienced huge population growth, is expected to leap forward exponentially, from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion forecasted for 2100. 

There are some countries, on the other hand, where an increase in population is being forecasted, among them countries in North Africa, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. There, populations are estimated to triple from 1.3 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion by 2100. Professor Vollset identifies the decrease in population linked to two key factors; contraception and education.