Lapsed START Treaty ... World Doomsday Clock

89 SecsMidnight Doomsday Clock

"The last nuclear arms control deal between the United States and Russia is set to expire today— [Feb.5] though eleventh-hour talks are reportedly working to prolong it. Unnamed sources told Axios the two countries were weighing an extension of the New START treaty, which limits the size of both countries’ nuclear arsenals and provides for inspections and information exchanges. Russia had halted inspections in 2023 in response to U.S. military support for Ukraine, and Trump did not formally respond to a proposal from Moscow last September to extend the treaty for a year. As China expands its own nuclear arsenal and U.S. allies in Europe question the reliability of Washington’s nuclear umbrella as a deterrent, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday that “the risk of a nuclear weapon being used is the highest in decades.”   

"Details on the reported talks to extend the deal were not immediately available. In January, Trump had told the New York Times that the United States would seek “a better agreement” than New START that should also include China. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said yesterday that it would not be fair for Beijing to join nuclear disarmament talks given its nuclear arsenal was smaller than the United States’. Russia said it remained open to diplomacy to “comprehensively stabilize the strategic situation” and that it regretted the lapse of the deal."

Council on Foreign Relations  

"[Trump has made it clear that] in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it's impossible to do something that doesn't include China because of their vast and growing stockpile."

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

 

"[Russia will maintain its] responsible, thorough approach to stability when it comes to nuclear weapons."

"Of course, it will be guided primarily by its national interests."

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman

 

"[Moscow] remains ready to take decisive military-technical measures to counter potential additional threats to the national security."

"At the same time, our country remains open to seeking political diplomatic ways to comprehensively stabilize the strategic situation on the basis of equal and mutually beneficial dialogue solutions, if the appropriate conditions for such cooperation are shaped."

Russian Foreign Ministry   

An unarmed Trident II D5 missile is test-launched from the Ohio-class U.S. Navy ballistic missile submarine USS Nebraska off the coast of Californi-a, U.S. March 26, 2018. U.S. Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Ronald Gutridge/Reuters

 

"If the president supports, or is willing to tolerate, the prospect of nuclear proliferation by allies, a post-American nuclear order may materialize quickly…Such an outcome would rapidly accelerate Trump’s push to shift defense burdens to allies by diminishing their reliance on U.S. conventional and nuclear deterrence."

"But in doing so, it would also undercut the United States’ influence over allied policies while creating significant new nuclear risks."

Rebecca Lissner/Erin D. Dumbacher, CFR experts, Foreign Policy 

The last remaining nuclear arms pact between Russia and the United States has now expired, leaving no limits on the atomic arsenals of the two largest holders of atomic arms in the world, for the first time in over a half-century. Termination of the New START Treaty took place on Thursday, February 5, 2026, leading arms control experts to the opinion that an unconstrained nuclear arms race may now proceed.

Last year, at a similar expiration juncture, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated his readiness to cement the limits the treaty imposes for another year, should Washington agree. This year, American President Donald Trump appears noncommittal-to-indifferent over extending the Treaty once again, indicating he is holding out for China to become an integral third-party of a new pact. Beijing's response to that expectation was a clear 'not interested'.  

The pact's expiration occasioned President Putin to discuss the matter with Chinese President Xi Jinping the day before the treaty expired, emphasizing the U.S. failure in responding positively to Mr. Putin's recommended overture for another extension for the limitations, emphasizing that Russia "will act in a balanced the responsible manner based on thorough analysis of the security situation".

With the expiration of the New START, the United States and Russia reached an agreement to re-establish high-level military-to-military dialogue following a meeting between senior officials representing both sides that took place in Abu Dhabi, according to the U.S. military command in Europe. New START restricted each side to no greater numbers than 1,550 nuclear warheads on no more than 700 missiles and bombers.

The treaty was signed by then-U.S. president Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, his Russian counterpart, in 2010. The treaty was originally meant to expire in 2021, but had been extended on mutual agreement for an additional five years -- now elapsed. 

"Today, I can reveal that the U.S. Government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons."

“China conducted one such yield producing nuclear test on June 22 of 2020,” he said, without providing further details. A former senior US official told CNN that information about China’s 2020 test had been declassified.

"[The Chinese military sought] to conceal testing by obfuscating the nuclear explosions because it recognized these tests violate test ban commitments."

"China has used decoupling – a method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring – to hide their activities from the world."

U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno  

Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles at V-day ceremony Tienanmen Square, Beijing, September 3, 2025. Getty Images