Tensions Rising in Europe as Russian Threat Increases

"There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles may fly into the territory of one or more NATO countries on the eastern flank, even cause destruction."

"[Russia's] official narrative will be that this is an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to think about any response from NATO."

"Sustained, very frequent and intense attacks are expected on six major Ukrainian cities, including the destruction of warehouses, all types of products essential for the country's defence, and, as we have witnessed very strongly in recent weeks, the railway infrastructure." 

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk

 

"[The security situation has never been] so serious and so tense." 

"Can anyone imagine that we're told to prepare 5,000 soldiers, 10,000 soldiers? And they'll go to fight somewhere we don't even know with whom, why or for what?"

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico 

Lithuanian soldiers secure the area where Italian fighter jets shot down a drone during NATO's Baltic Air Policing Mission near Pratkunai village, north of the capital Vilnius, Lithuania, September 15.  AP

 

Addressing parliament, Prime Minister Tusk spoke of the Kremlin's plans to destroy the economy and logistics of Ukraine, a conclusion supported by evidence intelligence services have gathered. Russia's plans extend to NATO's resolve, which it has focused on weakening by attacking the coalition's member states; in effect challenging them to respond. By launching 'hybrid style' drones and missile strikes against countries that are in support of Ukraine, NATO is being tested, even as the conflict launched by Vladimir Putin enters its debilitating fifth year.

 

As a key transit passage for Ukraine aid, Poland has undergone a number of suspicious incidents; multiple cyberattacks on public utilities. Critical domestic water, energy infrastructure and hospitals have been affected in Poland. The railway linking Warsaw to the Ukrainian border sustained damage that had all the hallmarks of Russian sabotage. Late July  saw a Russian missile crash in eastern Poland. Other NATO nations close to Ukraine have experienced similar, albeit fewer such 'warnings' related to Mr. Putin's 'special military operation'.

 

At a time when Moscow has intensified its attacks against Ukraine, inclusive of targets adjacent the Polish border, NATO jets responded by shooting down a drone of Russian origin over Lithuania a week earlier. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico made it clear that Slovakia, while taking its commitments to NATO seriously, he is prepared to do whatever he can to ensure that his country not be pulled into a conflict of uncertain value and outcome, in his opinion.

 

The fact is that Mr. Fico speaking for Slovakia does not regard Russia as posing a security threat. Advocating rapprochement with Moscow, he clearly diverges from other NATO members' concerns regarding the threat to their security posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin's territorial ambitions, pining for a return to the Soviet era with eastern Europe appendages of Greater Russia. The consequences of invoking NATO's Article 5, requiring all coalition members to act in defence of one another are unthinkable in Mr. Fico's considered opinion.

 

Military personnel from Poland, Lithuania, and France take part in training exercises during Operation Brave Boar 26 at the Orzysz Land Forces Training Center near the Suwalki Gap in Poland, on June 17.

Damian Lemanski/Bloomberg/Getty Images

 

"The path the world is on leads straight to the gates of hell. It is leading  us to World War Three", added Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, another critic of the European mainstream, at the IISS Prague Defence Summit. On the opposite side of the equation, the "rapidly worsening" situation concerning security and energy supplies in the face of conflicts afflicting Ukraine and the Middle East, motivates French President Emmanuel Macon to meet with government, party leaders and military and security officials to address the issues.

 

The oncoming, inevitable difficult winter ahead has Kyiv's full focus, along with that of its western allies. In meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Mr. Tusk spoke of the potential of co-operation through the "anti-ballistic coalition", and to fully address Ukraine's energy infrastructure, once again in Putin's crosshairs in the coming months. 

 

It is not only Eastern Europe that has become alarmed over gathering dark clouds of war. In the United Kingdom, its government has given notice that people should prepare to stockpile canned food and drinking water in preparation for the possibility of war as Britain faces the 'most dangerous' threat in decades. Hospitals in Germany are preparing for the possibility of an attack by Russia, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz warning of "decisive moments, defending the freedom and peace of our continent". Switzerland too issued calls for resilience and preparations to defend itself against an armed attack. 

  

Russian soldiers who participated in the military invasion of Ukraine march through the Victory Day parade in Moscow, May 9th. Getty Images

"[The Kremlin isn't ready for] any serious talks about a ceasefire, not to mention peace without -- de facto -- Ukraine's capitulation."

"They [the Russians] are convinced the winter will be tragically critical for Ukraine."

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk