Pledges and Possibilities

"It is way above what you would expect from normal fluctuations for climate. It is quite clear and can be attributed to greenhouse gases."
Xuebin Zhang, research scientist, Environment Canada

Smoke Stacks in China...Photo credit: GreenPeace

No, Mr. Zhang is not describing Canada, but China, the world's largest producer of carbon dioxide. The steadily emerging economic giant primarily uses coal for energy, and coal-fired smoke stacks are everywhere in China's megacities, producing carbon dioxide in immense volumes, blackening the atmosphere and creating polluted environmental conditions unlike anywhere else on Earth in its tenacity and ubiquity, impacting on the health of the population.

A joint study conducted between Canadian and Chinese scientists has recently concluded the first study linking energy derived from coal to the steady rise in China's daily temperature spikes. The amount of greenhouse gas emitted by China is greater than the combined effects of the United States and India in energy consumption and concomitant emissions. And this impact on China's environment is steadily growing.

Because of greenhouse gas production, daytime highs in China rose 0.9 degree C in the 46 years studied, up to 2007, a situation that becomes more pronounced at night when daily lows increased by about 1.7 C. Ideally, China would prefer to decrease its energy dependence on coal, but it remains the world's biggest producer and consumer of coal, the greatest source of man-made carbon dioxide emissions.

Roughly 90% of the temperature rise identified by the researchers was traced directly to man-made greenhouse gases, according to the study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Before 2007 when China had a much smaller economy it hadn't been implicated as the source of carbon dioxide rises; the U.S. and other developed nations bore that responsibility.

"The study is important because it formalizes what many scientists have been sensing as a gut instinct: that the increase in extreme heat that we've witnessed in recent decades, and especially in recent years, really cannot be dismissed as the vagaries of weather", explained Michael Mann, Pennsylvania State University climate scientist.

And now, word that the United States and China have announced they plan to undertake accelerated action to reduce greenhouse gases through co-operation on technology, research, conservation and alternative and renewable energy sources. Both countries have stated they "consider that the overwhelming scientific consensus regarding climate change constitutes a compelling call to action crucial to having a global impact on climate change".

Both countries are concerned by scientific reports of man-made climate change that is having "worsening impacts, including the sharp rise in global average temperatures over the past century, the alarming acidification of our oceans, the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, and the striking incidence of extreme weather events occurring all over the world."

In fact, the United States appears to have successfully reduced some elements of its growth in the production of greenhouse gases. There is less gasoline consumption, and more stringent engineering for vehicles to have them produce fewer greenhouse gases. China, on the other hand, is seeing its population surrender its bicycles as the middle class is growing and acquiring more automobiles.

More of China's population is living in cities and abandoning the countryside and its dependence on animals to pull carts conveying goods. Those living in cities buy cars, they buy air conditioners and energy-intensive home electronics as they enter the middle class and aspire to live more comfortably, consuming more energy for home heating and transportation.

So while the jointly released statement on co-operation in the determination to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions sounds hopeful, the reality of China's focus on continuing to grow its economy, producing more employment for its steadily growing population may mitigate otherwise.