The New Norm *

"You see a consistent picture, and the one we are seeing is one of a generally warmer world. What we have learned is one has to take a broad look at the climate system because we recognize that there is a lot of variability in the climate system from year to year."
Dr. Thomas Karl, director, U.S. National Climate Data Center

Photo, Michelle Valberg

In 1998 the Globe we all live upon experienced an intensive warming as a result of the naturally occurring El Nino cycle. It was followed by a natural La Nina cooling cycle. These cycles are predictable, they are part of the Earth's environmental atmospheric events; El Nino blows in warm air, and La Nina follows, bringing in cool air on an alternating basis.

But a newly published report representing the 23rd annual State of the Climate report bringing together the work of 384 scientists representing 52 countries, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society informs that global temperatures have been on the increase over the past fifty years at a rate of .15C each decade.

Global carbon dioxide levels reached 392.6 parts per million in 2012. This represented an increase of 2.1 ppm from 2011. And that level represents the highest in 800,000 years according to the scientists involved in this impressively vast research project. Pre-industrial historical levels were roughly 280 ppm. "These are the real signals that the world continues to get warmer", said Dr. Kate Willett, senior scientist at Britain's Hadley Centre.

Photo, Michelle Valberg

The report informs that sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate, despite having experienced a slight decline in 2011. 2012 saw a near record high. The increase is largely attributable to ice melt. The upper 2,300 feet of the Arctic Ocean saw record highs in 2012, because of ice melt. "Many of the planning models that are used in infrastructure planning rely on a set of assumptions that essentially count on the future being statistically a lot like the past", said Kathryn Sullivan, U.S. under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere.

"Trends that we are seeing certainly in the data we have today should lead one to test the soundness of those assumptions." Governments must now be obliged to take into account changing climate, when planning infrastructure into the distant future. The decline of Arctic summer sea ice, the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, rising sea levels, melting permafrost, all require new planning criteria.

The world is on notice: to expect an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions. Canada, Alaska and Eurasia are to anticipate continued warming of ever-deeper levels of permafrost. Methane levels have also increased, but why this is so seems impermeable to current scientific understanding: "I can't say precisely what is the cause of that increase in methane from 2005", said Dr. Willett.

Photo, Michelle Valberg -- Arctic Kaleidoscope

It is well known, however that 30% of methane emissions result from farming, while 40% represents natural emissions from oceans, wetlands and melting permafrost.

It's difficult to even begin to contemplate our changing world, but it is changing, and we do notice many of those symptoms, and we wonder what the future will bring, hoping we have reason to anticipate a long future without major disruptions that may impact deleteriously on all the Earth's creatures.

*William Marsden -- Postmedia News

e the last remnants of the ancient paleo-Eskimo Dorset and Thule settlements at Resolute in the High Arctic.

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