In Quebec It's the Enormous Death Toll

Quebec Premier Francois Legault CP/Paul Chiasson

"We are obliged to provide a type of shock treatment so that people reduce their visits."

"Police officers will be there to make sure everybody respects the rules."
"We have had the battle of our lives and unfortunately the battle is not over." 

Quebec Premier Francois Legault

 

 "Our hospitals are on the verge of a breaking point."

"[The] partial measures [in place] have had] no effect on the increasing trend of cases."

Roxane Burges Da Silva, professor, public health, Universite de Montreal

"We are going to truly surpass our capacity in the next two to three weeks if we don't do something."

"Ramping up testing of asymptomatic individuals in congregate settings whether it is in schools or the workplace should have been done. Period. Full stop."

"The biggest worry is, eventually, if we don't do anything, we'll get to the point where it's going to be the decision where we have two patients, one ventilator and someone has to decide."

"[In December Legault closed all] non essential [retail stores extending the winter break for elementary and high school students. But while those measures slowed the spread of the virus, they failed to] render the curve flat."

Dr.Donald Sheppard, chair, microbiology and immunology department, McGill University

After a rise in COVID-19 cases, Quebec is instituting the strictest measures since the spring. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press)

Quebec was the worst-hit COVID-19-caseload in the country initially when the SARS-CoV-2 virus entered Canada last year in March and it remains so to the present time. The initial entry just happened to coincide with the academic spring break and in Quebec that break takes place a week before it does elsewhere, in other provinces. Although there was concerned anticipation over a spreading coronavirus with dreadful news coming out first from China, then Italy and Spain as they attempted to cope with the vicious spread, Quebecers took their usual spring break trips abroad.

And the inevitable happened, as they brought back with them virulent strains of COVID-19 that quickly spread in the community, and Montreal in particular became an object lesson in the need to take stringent measures swiftly and if at all possible, proactively. A week later spring break time arrived in other provinces and recommendations were to curtail travel. Governments did what they could to alert and advise, to issue warnings and instructions to their populations while there were pockets of resistance particularly from religious communities that helped further the spread; inadvertently but inevitably. 

Spring and summer were quieter periods with some relief in the numbers of new COVID cases and a relaxation of rules. But then came Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's. A population that felt it had withheld itself from traditional visits with family and friends had problems contemplating separation on these important family holidays and resolve faltered. Surveys of Canadians related that an unsurprisingly large proportion of families took a calculated risk and returned to visiting one another. With the weeks following each of the holidays seeing another upward spike in cases.

 

 

 

The latest survey, the Leger/Association for Canadian Studies poll found that 48 percent of all those surveyed visited with people outside their households, while 52 percent of respondents said they had not. But it is clear from the survey that close to half of all Canadians visited with family or friends over the winter holiday period, and case numbers, already steep in this second COVID wave, began to skyrocket and still does not fully reflect the apex of the rise. The largest percentages provincially of those visiting during the holidays were those in Quebec and Ontario.

Quebec now becomes the first province to impose draconian measures in determined hopes of curbing the dynamic spread of the novel coronavirus. Premier Legault, during a news conference stressed that schools, retail stores and other businesses have been closed since December, and yet COVID-19 infections simply continued to rise. Transmission, he pointed out, largely traceable to private gatherings. Henceforth and until February 8 all non-essential businesses ordered to close in December are to remain closed until February.

There is also a curfew and anyone who thinks of wandering about on the street after 8:00 p.m. for no acceptable reason will be subject to fines between $1,000 and $6,000, substantial enough to make anyone think twice about challenging the curfew. On January 11 primary schools are to reopen and high schools will follow a week later. Mid-week, Quebec reported 2,641 new cases for that day alone, along with 47 additional deaths from COVID.

According to the provincial health department, hospitalizations had leaped by 76 to 1,393, the largest number of patients since last May, with 202 people in intensive care. Dr. Sheppard spoke of the province's health-care system under severe strain with surgeries and cancer screenings put off, while intensive care units are filling up. He spoke of breast cancer patients presenting with larger tumours than before the pandemic, the result of late diagnoses. 

Quebec's government-mandated health care think tank, the INESS Institute, warned that hospitals in the Montreal area are certain to run out of dedicated coronavirus beds within three weeks. It has been since October that much of Quebec has been under partial lockdown with bars, restaurant dining rooms, gyms and entertainment venues closed. All "non-essential" retail stores were closed in December and the winter break for students was extended.

Dr.Borges Da Silva feels the curfew is sensible since it will force people to consider whether it is worthwhile before they make arrangements to go out and have a beer with a friend. As far as she is concerned, illicit gatherings over the holidays have made a major impact on the spread of COVID-19 in the province. No one is under any illusions that there will not be push-back from the public over the curfew, however.