The COVID State of the Union

"There are continued increases, but not to the level that we've seen in previous surges here in the North-east."

"I'm seeing some modelling to suggest that peak won't occur until late September, early October -- but of course we don't know for sure."

"Multiple factors challenge our ability to predict what's going to happen next."

"Certainly opening school without having vaccinations available for kids under 12 also potentially will influence the course."

Dr.Roy Gulick, chief of infectious diseases, Weill Cornell Medicine and New York-Presbyterian hospital

 

"I believe that mandating vaccines for children to appear in school is a good idea."

"We've done this for decades and decades, requiring polio, measles, mumps, rubella, hepatitis [vaccinations]."

"I think there's a reasonable chance that the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines could get FDA clearance for kids under 12 before the upcoming holiday season."

Dr.Anthony Fauci, U.S. infectious disease expert

An empty ICU bed SSM Health St. Joseph Hospital in Lake Saint Louis. (photo by Armond Feffer).

Amidst key areas of concern in the United States over the bedeviling Delta wave, parts of the American Northeast, according to experts, may be closing in on the peak of the latest COVID wave. It is anticipated that in weeks to come hospitalizations and deaths will continue to mount. In Connecticut and Massachusetts cases appear to have topped out, reflecting a consensus of forecsts published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In New York and New Jersey however, infection rates are expected to increase. The Northeast has been ground down since mid-July by the effects of the COVID-19 wave that was first seen in Arkansas and Missouri and which went on to fuel record hospitalizations in Florida. In every state in the Northeast, daily hospital admissions are rising, according to the Department of Health and Human Services data. 

Leading indicators -- given that the rates of infection remain distinctly lower than those seen in early Delta-variant hot spots -- appear to suggest the region may crest before attaining Florida-like levels of viral prevalence. Nationwide however, cases remain projected to continue rising for several weeks. The original epicentre of the U.S. pandemic, New York city, has its effective reproduction number (Rt -- an estimate of how many new infections arise out of a single COVID carrier) indicating sustainable declines in case numbers may be approachable soon.

The Rt in Manhattan is estimated to have decreased to 1.0; and at such time that it falls below that level the expectation is that cases will decrease in the near future. The Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn have somewhat steeper Rt rates, revealed by covidestim, a project including representatives from Yale School of Public Health, Harvard's T.H.Chan School of Public Health and Stanford Medicine.

A record 5,048 new infections was reported two days earlier in Mississippi, signalling that the worst per capita outbreak in the country shows no signs of abating in a state with the nation's lowest vaccination rate. Mississip0i reported a record for deaths earlier in the week, with health officials reporting 20,000 students quarantined with the virus, or for exposure.

 

Francisco Rosales, 9, in the intensive care unit at Children’s Medical Center in Dallas, Texas. The day before he was supposed to start fourth grade, Francisco was admitted to the hospital due to severe COVID  AP

 

Florida is preparing to withhold funding from two school districts that have mandated mask-wearing for students, in defiance of an executive order signed by Florida Governor DeSantis barring facial coverings to be required.

"It is important to remember that this issue is about ensuring local school board members, elected politicians, follow the law."

"We cannot have government officials pick and choose what laws they want to follow."

Richard Corcoran, Commissioner of Education, Florida Department of Education