Russian Military Preparations -- Finland On Alert

"The Russian military has undergone a significant force expansion."

"After the war, the ground force will probably end up larger than before 2022." 

"Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it seems clear that they're going to prioritize areas facing NATO."

Michael Kofman, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington

 

"They are changing structures and we are seeing moderate preparations when it comes to building infrastructure close to our borders, meaning that they will, once the war in Ukraine hopefully ends, start to bring back the forces that have been fighting in Ukraine, especially land forces."

"They are doing it in phases. I would say it is still moderate numbers. It’s not big construction, but in certain places building new infrastructure and preparing, bringing new equipment in."

"You also have to evaluate whether they are preparing to send more troops to Ukraine or preparing to build up their forces close to our border. But I guess they are doing both."

"What happened right after the Ukrainian attack was we applied for NATO membership and then when we were accepted Russia announced they would start to change their military posture across the border."

Maj.-Gen. Sami Nurmi, the head of strategy of the Finnish defense forces 

Finnish troops with their Sisu XA-180 Armored Personnel Carrier. Photo: PFC LUIS A. DEYA/Wikimedia Commons

 

Recent satellite imagery has revealed that Russian forces have been put to work fortifying bases and building military infrastructure adjacent the border with Finland. These revelations are construed as moves that could portend the Russian strategy for action meant to be taken when the conflict with Ukraine comes to an end. Row after row of new tents; new warehouses capable of storing military vehicles; fighter jet shelter renovations; amongst steady construction activity has taken place on an unused helicopter base, in imagery confirmed by NATO.

 

At the present time these changes appear to represent early stages of a more ambitious, longer-term expansion. However, NATO authorities state the situation bears little resemblance as yet to the buildup of 2022 along the Ukraine border prior to Russia's full scale invasion. Russia is for the present, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine and such being the case, can spare very few troops along its frontier. Finland itself feels that the situation does not -- as yet -- constitute a threat.  

 

Finnish Border guards in Joensuu at the border with Russia on June 5, 2024 (Jarno Artika / Lehtikuva / AFP via Getty Images) 

 

Russia is in fact, responding to its well-known antipathy to its near neighbours becoming part of NATO, a presence it views as a direct threat to Moscow's interests. Finland, as of two years earlier is now one of the newest members of NATO, impelled to join the defense group as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In reacting to its neighbours' willingness to become NATO members, the Kremlin's aggressive moves in response have had the predictable result of spurring those neighbours to find security within the NATO alliance.

 

The 1,300-kilometer frontier represents the Western alliance's longest line of contact with Russia and as such, analysts predict it has the potential to become a hot spot, much of it lying in the contested Arctic Circle. Recent Arctic war games held by American and Finnish troops in the region, had hundreds of troops rushing about the woods, with the Finns on cross-country skis -- countering an obvious enemy, presumably Russia. 

 

The prediction by Finnish defense officials, that whenever the high-intensity phase of the war in Ukraine comes to an end, Russia will then turn to deploying thousands of troops to the Finish frontier. They feel they have an estimated five years roughly before Russia will be able to rebuild its forces to threat level. This, according to their reckoning, is a certainty, their expectations being that they will face triple numbers of Russian troops. "We'll be talking about so much higher troop levels", stated Brigadier General Pekka Turunen, director of Finish defense intelligence. 

 

Completed Russian warehouse construction is visible in Maxar satellite images in Petrozavodsk, Russia, May 4, 2025 (Satellite image 2025 Maxar Technologies)

 

The Baltic nations in Russia's near abroad were the first of the former Soviet Union satellites to join NATO, in the process leading Moscow to fear that large stretches of Russia's border became vulnerable to the presence of NATO. When it appeared that Ukraine, a much larger former Soviet republic, would rise to the option to join, Russia was spurred to mount its 'special military operation'.

 

Satellite imagery make it clear that Russian helicopters have been returned to a base nearby Murmansk, a Russian port city located in the Arctic Circle, after having stood unused for two decades. Recently, dozens of Russian warplanes were seen at the Olenya air base also located in the Arctic, less than 160 kilometers from the Finnish border, as identified by satellite imagery. 

 

Over a hundred new tents appeared a year earlier at Kemenka, a Russian base under 65 kilometers from Finland. "They are expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly -- by thousands", Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organization which analyzes military developments, revealed. This is a situation which, if it reaches such a point, will involve a NATO member-nation, compelling NATO itself to respond.

 

Sources: Black Bird Group, GFSIS, OpenStreetMap, Maptiler, NZZ research