High Hopes and Mixed Messages

"[Tomahawk deliveries to Kyiv would send a] big political signal from Trump in talks with Russia, and would be] helpful [for Ukrainian forces]."

"But it's not like this one weapon is going to change the course of the whole war."

Unnamed European diplomat 

 

"[The trip from Ukraine to Washington is a] very important historical moment."

"[The meeting would leave the world in no doubt that Trump] finally understands that Putin is a liar, he can't be trusted, and actions are needed to stop the war."

"[The crucial question for Ukraine – whether Trump would agree to its use of American long-range Tomahawk missiles -- was close to being] solved."

Ruslan Stefanchuk, speaker, Ukraine parliament 

Trump says he has faith in Putin, but Zelensky does not     Reuters

 

"[The prospect of Ukraine having Tomahawks had caused Russia to be] afraid because it is a strong weapon."

"I am realistic. We have to stop where we are, he is right, the president is right."

"[The] main priority now is to protect as many lives as possible, guarantee security for Ukraine, and strengthen all of us in Europe."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 

 

"I am [concerned Putin might be playing for time by agreeing to a new summit]."

"But I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well. So, it's possible, a little time, it's alright. But I think that I'm pretty good at this stuff. I think that he wants to make a deal."

"[There is] bad blood [between Putin and Zelenksy]."

"We want to make it comfortable for everybody. We'll be involved in threes, but it may be separated." "[The three leaders ] have to get together."

U.S. President Donald Trump

Tomahawk missiles are 6.1 metres long, with a 2.5 metre wing span, and weigh about 1,510kg, costing an estimated $1.3m (£1m) each. Illustration: e-crow/Shutterstock

 

The Tomahawk long-range cruise missile can carry various warheads; cluster munitions, high-explosives and bunker busters, launched from submarines, warships, and ground-based mobile systems. Some variants have a 2,500 kilometre range. Such a distance would allow Ukraine to launch from well within its territory and strike targets inside Crimea, as well as large swaths of Russia including the Moscow area and even further. Were Tomahawks to be given to Kyiv, it's likely they would also receive a truck-hauled launcher, the Typhon, to fire the weapons.

 

Ukraine is already in possession of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) which it has used to destroy command centres and troop positions within Russia, but the Tomahawk missiles can travel further than the ATACMS, their precision and trajectory being key attributes. Tomahawks are cruise missiles that fly low across the contour of the Earth, so it is difficult to detect and intercept them.

 

Some 9,000 Tomahawk missiles have been produced since the 1980s; hundreds of them used in combat and thousands deployed or decommissioned. The supply of these missiles has been drawn down by the U.S. Defense Department, caused by recent operations (attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and targeting Yemen). According to Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief, the U.S. is required to shift focus on deterring China. And Tomahawks represent a key weapon to stockpile by the Pentagon for the potential of future operations in the Indo-Pacific region.

 

So when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy returned to the White House on Friday in the hopes of securing these more powerful American missiles to pressure Moscow to end the 30-yeear-old invasion, hopes were high in Kyiv, until it became known that Presidents Trump and Putin had just concluded an hour-and-a-half telephone conversation, very well regarded in its outcome by President Trump. Whose volatile, mercurial mindset can turn on that virtual dime. 

 

Offering to trade Ukraine drones for U.S Tomahawks saw President Trump acknowledge the superior design of Ukraine drones, but such weapons are already produced in the United States. "We'd much rather have them not need Tomahawks. We're in it to have the war over", he pointed out later. The big problem, he emphasized is that Zelenskyy and Putin have a strong aversion one to the other. And he himself appears to have a soft spot for Vladimir Putin.

 

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