Ruminations

Blog dedicated primarily to randomly selected news items; comments reflecting personal perceptions

Sunday, January 14, 2024

Yemen's Houthi Terrorists Emboldened

"The Houthis are not 'defending Gaza' or trying to 'stop a genocide'."
"They are using the Gaza war as a pretext to consolidate their [brutal, autocratic] rule inside Yemen and to position themselves as a regional power."
Middle East security expert Thomas Juneau

"These strikes are in direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea, including the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles for the first time in history."
"These attacks have endangered US. personnel, civilian mariners, and our partners; jeopardized trade, and threatened freedom of navigation."
U.S. President Joe Biden
Military forces from the U.S. and U.K. launched airstrikes on sites in Yemen, saying the strikes targeted areas that hosted radar, missile and drone capabilities used by Iran-backed Houthi forces to attack vessels in the Red Sea.  CBCNews  Still from video
 
The Shia Houthis who govern half of impoverished Yemen, a Sunni-majority country, are a satellite proxy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, part of Iran's Shi'it axis of influence in its campaign to achieve greater prominence in the Middle East through alliances with Qatar, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq and extending to Hamas in Gaza. Iran's IRGC speedboats have been harassing shipping in the Persian Gulf in much the same way as the Houthis are now doing and what Somali pirates were doing in the Gulf of Aden and around Somalia's coastal waters.

Iran's well-known penchant for proxy terrorism through its Shia militias as agents of chaos in the Middle East have now expanded to include working relationships with Russia, China and North Korea.
The Houthi-created blockages of navigation in international waters have caused great perturbation among the world's shipping lines -- where consumer goods travel back and forth from Asia to Europe and North America -- have been interrupted necessitating alternate routes around Africa creating complications in maritime shipping of lengthier travel times increasing expenses and creating shortages.
 
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A Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released on Nov. 20. (Houthi Military Media/Reuters)
 
American and British missiles struck Houthi targets, after a course of diplomatic overtures failed to make any impression on the Houthi leadership. Weeks of warnings from Western officials that sustained Houthi drone and missile attacks on commercial and civilian vessels traversing the Red Sea would engender a military response of retaliatory strikes, should the attacks not cease, made no inroad, leading to strikes on Houthi radar installations, storage and launch sites for drones and missiles.

The issue of Yemen-based Houthi militia strikes at ships transiting the Red Sea began in the weeks that followed the Hamas terrorist attack against southern Israel on October 7, when 1,400 Israelis were slaughtered, 240 captured as hostages, taken back to Gaza, and countless Israeli girls and women were raped, tortured and murdered. At the time the Houthi claims were that their attacks on vessels were aimed solely at  ships heading for or from Israel, or were Jewish-owned. It took no time before other vessels, including military ships were being targeted.

In a public address, U.S. President Biden explained the strikes' purpose was to demonstrate that the United States and its allies "will not tolerate" the ongoing Houthi attacks on the Red Sea -- impairing freedom of navigation on international waters -- that its and its allies missile strikes on Yemen Houthi targets were made only after efforts at diplomatic negotiations failed. In response, the Houthi military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree stated that the strikes "would not go unanswered or unpunished"
 
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Yemeni demonstrators shout slogans during a protest in Sanaa on Friday that followed U.S. and British airstrikes across the country aimed at retaliating against Houthi forces. (Mohammed Huwais/AFP/Getty Images)

According to U.S. Air Forces Central Command, the strikes were laser-focused on command and control nodes, munition depots, launching systems, production facilities and air defence radar systems, involving over 100 precision-guided munitions, inclusive of air-launched missiles and ship-and submarine-launched Tomahawk land attack missiles.

A later report from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations overseeing Mideast waters, on Friday evening reported a new attack occurring off Yemen when a missile was fired toward a vessel 90 miles south-east of Aden, the ship being followed by three small vessels, a modus operandi pioneered by Iran's Islamic Republican Guard Corps, and faithfully followed by their latest proxy terrorist group.

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Iranian-backed Houthi forces based in Yemen have launched their biggest attack yet on a vessel in the Red Sea. U.S. and British forces repelled the assault but experts say the Houthis are becoming emboldened. Still from video, CBCNews

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Friday, December 29, 2023

Yemen's Houthi Terrorists Gaining an International Piracy Reputation

"While the U.S.-led coalition might appear successful militarily, it might not be sufficient for major shipping companies to resume Red Sea transits."
"The longer the Houthi attacks continue, the more pressure the U.S. will face to go on the offensive, which risks regional escalation."
Gerard DiPippo, senior geo-economic analyst, Bloomberg Economics 

"That's happening [clamber to track new arrival times for companies with cargo on detouring ships] en masse on every ship that got diverted."
"Teams are working overtime right now to try to keep up with this."
Ryan Petersen, chief executive and founder, Flexport Inc.
A Houthi fighter on the Galaxy Leader cargo ship
A Houthi fighter on the Galaxy Leader cargo ship, which was seized in the Red Sea, off Yemen’s west coast, in November. Photograph: Houthi Military Media/Reuters
 
The situation has become so dire for shipping that half of the container-ship fleet normally transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal on a regular basis now avoid the route as a result of the threat of attacks. New industry data tallied and compiled by Flexport Inc. indicate that 299 vessels with a combined capacity to carry 4.3 million containers have changed course or plan to. Double the number of a week earlier, equating to roughly 18 percent of global capacity.

According to Flexport, diverted journeys around Africa can take up to 25 percent longer in transit than the use of the Suez Canal shortcut between Asia and Europe. Trips that have greater cost will ultimately lead to higher prices on everything from footwear to food, to oil for consumers, should the need for these longer journeys persist. Yemen-based Houthis claim their targets are ships linked to Israel, leading them to the attacks. However, ships with no direct links to Israel also find themselves being targeted.

As the conflict escalates, global trade is threatened, leading to the formation of a United States-led task force attempting to increase security on the key regional waterway. Even ships that broadcast neutrality while using the route have come under attack. Flexport's statistics mirror another count by Swiss Freight-forwarder Kuehne + Nagel International AG that, as of December 27, show 364 vessels with capacity for five million, 20-foot container units rerouted around Africa.
 
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A screen grab captured from a video shows Yemen’s Houthi fighters’ takeover of the cargo ship Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea on November 20, 2023 
Houthi Movement via Getty Images
 
Houthis launched over 100 attacks on commercial ships in the past month alone. The MSC United VIII container ship en route to Pakistan from Saudi Arabia became a target on December 26, while fifteen container vessels -- ten operated by A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S -- have stayed on course or abandoned diversion plans, planning to cross into the Red Sea toward Suez, according to Flexport's analysis.

The number two container line, Maersk, is preparing to resume Red Sea transits "as soon as operationally possible". Not since pirates off the coast of Somalia some years back attacked commercial and international vessels has the world seen a situation parallel to the present one. Arrivals into the Gulf of Aden declined 40 percent between December 22 and December 26, according to Clarksons Research data, in comparison with the average for the first half of the month.

Data indicate that container ship arrivals decreased 87 percent, gas tankers down about 30 percent and car carriers about 25 percent. Suez Canal transits reflect a similar pattern where transits were down about 45 percent between December 22 and 26 for vessels heading south. Diversions around Africa's southern tip are stretching shipping capacity and boosting freight rates; the worst-case scenario is a 20 percent reduction in global capacity, reports Flexport.

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Photo shows tanker and freight ships near the entrance of the Suez Canal, by Egypt’s Red Sea port city of Suez [AHMED HASAN/AFP via Getty Images]

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