Post-COVID Normalcy Spectacularly Uncertain

"Right now, most Delta cases are caught at border entry points and there has been relatively few cases within the country."

"[It's almost certain Delta will overtake Alpha in Canada], once lockdown and sanitary measures are eased."

"[Moreover another pandemic wave is possible, one that] will affect severely those not vaccinated, and mildly those vaccinated once."

"This is why there is a race against the clock for national double-vaccine coverage."

Dr.Marc Andrew Langlois, lead, Coronavirus Variants Rapid Response Network, University of Ottawa virologist

"I think having 90 percent of our population with two doses would put us in a really strong position."

"We don't know how transmissible any of these variants are really going to look in a fully reopened population, because none of them have ever seen a fully reopened population, really."

"So, we don't know. Do we need 95 percent protection, or 95 percent immunized? Do we need 85 percent? What do we really need?"

"We're going to need 80 plus percent of our population immune, which means more than that immunized. [The authorized vaccines are] awesome and wonderful and great and innovative [but they're not perfect]."

"Our best guess would be that if we just went for it, and reopened with only 75 percent of eligible people vaccinated, that's not enough. We would see so many infections in the rest."

"Now it's getting a little less predictable because we don't really know in a Canadian reopened population how transmissible these variants are. But we think it's going to be not great."

"I think it's probably a great starting point for starting to reopen. But I don't think it's going to get us there in terms of a completely fully back-to-normal life."

Dr.Caroline Colijn, COVID modeller, epidemiologist, Simon Fraser University

The Star

 

Into the unknown. This is where the world is headed as it hopes to resume normalcy once it reckons the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19 has been tamed. If it is ever tamed. Although expectations are there alongside the uncertainties. Insecurity of opinion exists because no one considered to be an expert in viruses and their behaviour based on past experiences, now faced with a virus that outdistances all others in unexpected effects and a whole host of confusing complications, vexes understanding even while the experts are forecasting events to come and hoping for the best.

On the surface it is beginning to look as though the COVID adventure that turned Canada upside down and inside out may be lingering, but is on its way to softening its presence before finally succumbing to medical science and the science of the herd effect. And then there is the wild card represented by a virus whose mutations have resulted in more devious, infectious, and effects-negative variants. Each of the recognized new variants appearing to be more threatening than the last. And with the literally thousands of mutations, the concern that a new variant may surface whose threat level may outdistance all others.

The hope that once enough numbers in any population are finally vaccinated with the recommended two first doses, their immunity level will serve to protect not only the individuals but the larger community, leaving COVID-19 to slink away, no longer posing the dire threat it represents today. Canada is preparing to reopen, socially, and structurally, in the hope that businesses will reopen, people return to work, the economy will pick up, and normalcy will resume.

And then there's the reminder from the country's chief public health officer, that there is a wild card over the horizon, the Delta variant causing greater infections in India and whose presence is now guaranteed to be "essentially across Canada". Not precisely widespread and dominant yet, but on the cusp of being so. Just awaiting the opportunity that reopening will present it with, so to speak. There is always the experience of the United Kingdom to use as an assessment tool of the opportunistic virus.

There, in the United Kingdom, Delta has succeeded in surpassing Alpha (formerly identified as the U.K. variant). Britain is a week away from its full reopening. An event that could quite possibly be cancelled or put on hold as the case may be, in the wake of runaway infections, thanks to Delta;s prevalence. Judging from Britain's experience, there is every expectation that Delta will succeed in overtaking Alpha as the primary virus in Canada. "Once lockdowns and sanitary measures are eased".

 

 

The simple fact of the matter is that double-vaccinations offer up to 90 percent protection against Delta, whereas a single shot, which is where most Canadians are at this juncture, offers far less protection. Which is why provinces should be planning to achieve 90 percent vaccine coverage and not just the 75 percent threshold initially set, to ensure there will be a safe reopening situation. Another issue is that children under 12 are ineligible for inoculations, along with the fact that some people cannot be vaccinated for reasons medical. Leaving a potential third of the population still vulnerable.

All it takes is for every person infected with Delta to spread the infection to four or five others: "That's when we would start talking about waves, and fourth waves", said Dr.Colijn. People may have spoken about waves: "really the waves have just been, we've turned on and off our control measures, and then the cases have risen and fallen, and we've gone, 'Oh, look, a wave'. But it's not." It's been completely predictable, cautioned Dr.Colijn, holder of a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for evolution, infection and public health.

Early evidence suggests that three weeks following the first dose of either Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca, either provides 33 percent protection against symptomatic infections with the Delta variant with the second dose of Pfizer boosting that to 88 percent, and a double dose of AstraZeneca provides 60 percent protection against Delta. The variant of concern may also cause more severe disease, given early evidence from England and Scotland suggesting an increased risk of hospitaliztion compared to Alpha cases.

"[Higher infectivity means Delta could conceivably] rip through unvaccinated populations if life returns to normal in a fortnight."

Peter Openshaw, professor of experimental medicine, Imperial College, London

"If we have unvaccinated, or partially vaccinated pockets, if there are dense networks out there of people who are vaccine hesitant, the risk that they will eventually get infected between October and April 2022 is very high."

"That's the challenge here."

Dr.Peter Juni, scientific director, COVID-19 science advisory table, Ontario

Peel Region Medical Health Officer Dr. Lawrence Loh prepares to give an injection of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in an overnight clinic at the International Centre in Mississauga, Ont., on May 16 and 17, 2021. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)