Keeping the Fiction Alive

In central Tehran, a poster with the words: ‘The Strait of Hormuz remains closed’ spells out Iran’s uncompromising position. EPA/Abedin Taherkenareh

 

"Mojtaba Khamenei, the proclaimed Supreme Leader, has not been seen or heard from directly since February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched their air campaign."

"One Iranian journalist in Germany claims Mojtaba is dead and that the delay in announcing his death reflects an internal struggle among senior regime figures over control of the vast financial empire worth tens of billions of dollars associated with his father's office."

Winfield Myers, Middle East Forum 

 

"Mojtaba is managing the country as though he is the director of the board."

"He relies heavily on the advice and guidance of the board members, and they collectively make all the decisions."

"The generals are the board members." 

Abdoireza Davari, former senior advisor to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 

 

"Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control."

"There is, perhaps, deference to him. He signs off or he is part of the decision-making structure in a formal way."

"But he is presented with fait accompli presentations right now."

Sanam Vakil, director, Chatham House policy institute, London 

 

"Mojtaba is not supreme; he might be leader in name, but he is not supreme the way his father was."

"Mojtaba is subservient to the Revolutionary Guards because he owes his position and he owes the survival of the system to them."

Ali Vaez, Iran director, International Crisis Group 

People ride motorcycles near a billboard featuring an image of Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, amid a ceasefire between U.S. and Iran, in Tehran, Iran, April 20, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS)

 

The absolute power wielded by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader is a matter of the past. The IRGC was Khamenei's tool, whatever he ordered they carried through. He was the decision-maker, they implemented his decisions. With his son purportedly now replacing him, the roles have been reversed; while professing to take their direction from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, it is now the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders who are the decision-makers planning the future of the Islamic Republic, and negotiating with the United States for a ceasefire.

 

If he is in actual fact still alive, Mojtaba Khamenei, is in a secret place and  has been there since American and Israeli aerial forces bombed the Khamenei compound the very first day of their Invasion on February 28. Living with his family in that compound, the junior Khamenei lost his wife and son to the bombs that killed his father, and just incidentally, injured him so badly that he has been incommunicado since, cared for by doctors treating his injuries from the airstrikes.

 

The Iran-Iraq war saw a then-17-year old Mojtaba deployed to a brigade of the IRGC, the Habib Battalion. During that war, and through his close association with the Guards and its members, lifetime friendships ensued as battalion members became influential military and intelligence figures, while Mojtaba had followed his father into a theological seminary to graduate with the rank of ayatollah, following which he coordinated military and intelligence operations at his father's compound. A position that brought him ever closer to the IRGC leadership.

 

Rumours had begun circulating not long after the airstrikes that killed his father, that the son, gravely wounded, had succumbed to his injuries and died. That the IRGC, mindful of the influence of a supreme leader assumed to be the voice of Shia Islam with millions of devout followers, was needed to give them the political/religious authority required to continue their enforcing role as custodians of the Islamic Republic. 

 

As matters now stand, it was agreed to acknowledge the grave physical condition that the February 28 airstrike left Mojtaba in. That surgery to amputate one of his legs occurred and he awaits a prosthetic. There were ostensibly other surgeries, but his physical functions are gradually returning though the severe burns on face and lips made it difficult for him to speak clearly, and thus his voice has not been heard. The messages 'written' by him have been circulated widely, for his 'comprehensive intelligence' has not been impaired.

 

Women members of the Basij paramilitary, affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, march through Tehran with their weapons during a state-organized rally in support of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. (Vahid Salemi/The Associated Press)

 

The story is that messages to him and back from him are discreetly carried hand-to-hand over long distances by trusted couriers. His condition mandated the delegation of decision-making temporarily to the generals for the time being. Nothing has disturbed the power of the IRGC whose elite leaders are known to control vast industrial empires, including the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic. The decision to close the Strait of Hormuz was not Mojtaba's, but it has served the fiction of his commanding role well.

 

The Guards have directed the strategy of attacking Persian Gulf states, and Israel. Those who are said to speak from positions of knowledge maintain that Motaba Khamenei decided since his leadership role was one he had to accustom himself to, to delegate critical decision-making, as per the ceasefire talks to the Guards. The generals now in charge; Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Ahmad Vahidi, Mohsen Rezaei, and cleric Hossein Taeb, have a singular goal; to safeguard the existence of the Islamic Republic.

 

And they do so in direct opposition to foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, and president Masoud Pezeshkian concerned with sanctions relief, with the economic losses caused by the war, the need for reconstruction, and to rethink the closure of the Hormuz Strait.  

 

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members at an IRGC ground forces military drill in the Aras area, East Azerbaijan Province, Iran, Oct. 17, 2022. Credit: Fars News Agency