Who Feels the Economic Pain of Trump's Trade War on Canada?

"A trade war with Canada will negatively impact many [U.S.] states, especially those heavily engaging in trade with Canada, including energy- and mineral-rich states, many heavy-industry-dependent states, and our agricultural heartlands."

Kat Miller, Policy Analyst for Statistical Modeling and Scientific Analysis, Advancing American Freedom (AAF)

 

"When I spoke with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week, I stressed the negative impact U.S. tariffs will have on Maine -- especially our forest, food, cement, road salt users and producers."

"Tariffs will also stress municipal budgets, as small towns in Maine rely on Canadian road salt and cannot afford to incur extra costs to keep their roads safe in the winter."

Maine Senator Susan Collins 

Six of the nine U.S. states that conduct the highest share of their total trade with Canada are along the northern border. Photo by Advancing American Freedom Foundation

 

The Trump administration's import ban on particular additional Canadian goods took effect this week, in the ongoing trade war initiated by the U.S. against its second-largest trading partner, Canada. The annual volume of U.S.-Canadian goods trade at $674 billion, $284B of which (42 percent), is accounted for by five states alone. Illinois Texas, Michigan, New York and Ohio are those five states, with Illinois leading at $76 billion followed by Texas at $70 billion and Michigan at $67 billion. 

 

Although among those five states, with New York's trade volume at $37 billion and Ohio's at $34 billion, none of them will feel the pain of the trade's economic effects, as will border states. The highest in volume of shares states are those most dependent on Canada as a trading partner and they are those clustered along the northern border and the plains. Six of those nine highest-share states border Canada.

 

The trade war among those states expose North Dakota and Montana to effects of the trade war; Canada accounting for 77 percent of the total goods traded for both states. Maine follows at 62 percent, Vermont at 55 percent, West Virginia and South Dakota at 43 percent, and Oklahoma at 40 percent. Needless to say, Washington did not consult with any of these states before embarking on its cutthroat trade war with Canada. 

 

In the oncoming midterm elections, several states have become key battlegrounds, including Maine, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio. Among them are politicians who have condemned the trade war against Canada. Republican Susan Collins, for one, voted in the Senate to rescind some US. tariffs. In response to Senator Collins' concern, Canada decided to exempt U.S. seafood from its counter-tariff list.

 

A Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll of recent vintage saw Americans four times as likely to cast blame on Washington rather than Ottawa for the trade war dispute. Republicans as well were fairly split on the Trump administration's campaign which saw fewer than half (44 percent) in support of U.S. tariffs on Canada, while 33 percent opposed them. 

 

 

"Canada has taken advantage of us for so many years, the worst of any country."

"They act like they’re totally innocent. They’re not. They were very bad. But now they’re being taught a little lesson."

"They’re gonna come in and they’re gonna say, ‘Sir, we are sorry."

"They’ve treated the United States very, very badly. I think a deal will be made but it’s gonna be fair."

U.S. President Donald J. Trump