When Allies Fall Out

"Sections of the Indian foreign policy community feel 'betrayed' by the Donald Trump administration, which has found unexpected affection for Rawalpindi, raised a host of tough demands on trade, and threatened additional tariffs on India because of its BRICS membership and continued purchase of Russian oil."

"It is, perhaps, a small consolation that India is not alone. America’s neighbours and largest trading partners [Mexico and Canada] and its longstanding allies in Europe and Asia have even more reasons to feel betrayed."

C. Raja Mohan, Indian Express

 

"[There will be] very pragmatic strategic recalibrations [by New Delhi to protect its interests]."

"[India's growing economy allows its leaders breathing room, bit it is still a moment of] deep introspection [for the country]."

"We have to draw our lessons from that and really focus on the national priorities and what we need to do to become strong and more influential."

Nirupama Rao, former Indian ambassador to Beijing and Washington 

 

"In the dim-lit antechambers of global power, India stands as both witness and architect to a world on the edge of multipolar chaos."

"The tectonic plates of international order are shifting, and New Delhi – long a master of strategic ambiguity – now finds itself the subject of a more perilous experiment in global pressure with Washington brandishing the threat of sweeping tariffs and secondary sanctions."

"Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s bill – stipulating 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil to curb Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine – puts India’s time-honoured doctrine of ‘strategic autonomy’ to its severest test."

"NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s subsequent warning to India of being hit ‘very hard’ by secondary sanctions if it continues to trade with Russia only underlines the gravity of the challenge."

Vinay Kaura, Royal United Services Institute  

Sunday Guardian

India, the world's most populous democracy, knows what it feels like to be caught between a rock and a hard place. And right now, the walls of that hard place are steadily albeit slowly moving inward to trap India, giving it due cause for concern and certainly cause to look about carefully in considering its options. Options which in and of themselves complicate an already complex situation, making it extremely difficult to make critical decisions. For any decisions made will come with ready-made headaches at a time when India would prefer to focus on its strengthening economic situation as a potential to nudge China aside as the world's premier producer of hard goods on the world stage.

On the one hand, New Delhi's growing power as a world-class producer capable of overturning China's current status as the globe's producing colossus, has seen Beijing's attention also swivelled to that likelihood so there is a certain level of tension to add to the belligerent territorial claims of the two giants over border issues and the high plateau Himalaya in particular. Rivalry of this calibre makes for uneasy neighbours.

But it is not only China and its penchant for territorial aggression that makes its neighours nervous; in India's case there is another neighbour with whom relations are fraught with tension; the ill will that emanates from Pakistan toward India is best seen in their fractious relations over Kashmir, a tinderbox of unresolved claims leading to occasional vociferous accusations and culminating in indecisive, violent clashes.

 

India's sterling relations with the United States, arguably still the world's dominant superpower, have recently taken a turn for the worse. Although in President Donald Trump's first administration no issues erupted that would rock a congenial relationship between the two countries had surfaced, the second Trump administration has roiled all of America's trade partners to a significant degree, threatening to upend world trade, causing no end of turmoil in stock markets and the suddenly wobbling global economy. 

 

When that calm and friendly relationship between India and the U.S. erupted suddenly into an antagonistic trade issue, it was not only India, but all of the U.S.'s normally reliable Western-democratic allies finding themselves staring down the barrel of a targeted trade tariff of staggering proportions. The Trump administration levying a whopping 50 percent tariff on Indian goods as punishment for Russian oil contracts by New Deli and Moscow stunned Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

 

Baisaran Valley, near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, India. Photo Credit: Hellohappy, Wikipedia Commons

 

And when Donald Trump recognized Pakistan on an equal footing during a standoff between India and Pakistan over a conflict that began when Hindu tourists in Kashmir were attacked and killed by Pakistani terrorists whom New Deli identified as linked to the Pakistani military, India was taken aback, insulted and incredulous that this could occur, when even Trump himself has acknowledged that Pakistan harboured and sponsored terrorists in their midst -- with India in mind.

 

Donald Trump took credit for smoothing over the rankled hostility between the two neighbours, even as India took credit for its superior military having gained the advantage over Pakistan that led to a ceasefire. That Narendra Modi took exception to Trump's declaration as a premier peacemaker whose overtures had succeeded in arranging the ceasefire and his subsequent declaration of India having been responsible in view of its military success over Pakistan did not endear him to his erstwhile ally.

 

The diplomatic distance that ensued, made the imposition of steep tariffs inevitable as Mr. Modi has opened up to Vladimir Putin of Russia, both vowing to deepen "the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership" -- a red flag to a raging bull. With India facing a situation where rivals like China and the United States hemming in India's ambitions on the economic and diplomatic front, uncertainty reigns, forcing India to recommit to its doctrine of "strategic autonomy"; a situation similar to what Israel, an ally of India, is facing for entirely different reasons.

 

Royal United Services Institute, U.K.