Ruminations

Blog dedicated primarily to randomly selected news items; comments reflecting personal perceptions

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Flirting Dangerously With Prospects of World War III

"Today, I can confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, and that North Korean military units have been deployed to the Kursk region."
"[The move represents] a significant escalation [in North Korea's involvement in the conflict and marks] a dangerous expansion of Russia's war."
"[NATO is] actively consulting within the alliance, with Ukraine, and with our Indo-Pacific partners [on developments]."
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte
 
"This is our sovereign decision."
"Whether we use it or not, where, how, or whether we engage in exercises, training, or transfer some experience. "
"It’s our business."
Russian President Vladimir Putin
 
"North Korean soldiers are deployed to support Russia’s war of aggression. It's a grave escalation in this war and a threat to global peace."
"[The EU would] respond together with our like-minded partners."
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen  

"[A] portion [of those soldiers had already moved closer to Ukraine."
"The US is increasingly concerned that Russia would use these soldiers] in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk oblast [region]."
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh
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The Ukrainian spy agency released video that it says was intercepted from Russian soldiers complaining about North Korean troops and the language barrier. Reuters

A high-level South Korean delegation, along with top intelligence and military officials as well as senior diplomats briefed NATO's 32 national ambassadors at NATO headquarters in Brussels on what is known at this time respecting the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia for training to take part in the Russian conflict against Ukraine.

Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister pointed out that Pyongyang and Moscow had signed a joint security pact in June. Although he was responding to the statement by NATO's Mark Rutte, he confined himself to that single remark, side-stepping any confirmation that North Korean soldiers were actually in Russia at this point. On the other hand, he pointed out, Western military instructors have been deployed covertly to Ukraine to train its military in the use of long-range weapons supplied to Ukraine by its Western partners.

NATO has confirmation that troops from North Korea have been dispatched to Russia to aid its war against Ukraine, elaborating with the additional confirmation received that some troops have already been deployed in the Kursk border region where significantly, the Russian military has been attempting to push back a Ukrainian incursion into Russia well beyond the border between the two that appears to be well dug in.

Thousands of North Korean soldiers -- an estimated total of 10,000 -- would represent a significant boon to Russia in Europe's largest conflict since the Second World War. In the process the situation will place greater pressure on Ukraine's overstretched military and underarmed, war-weary soldiers. On Monday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that about 650,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded. "They [Russians] are not collecting the bodies... their people are rotting on the ground." 
 
Geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the greater Indo-Pacific region including Japan and Australia are being stoked, according to Western officials. The more complex the situation becomes, the more heated the conflict and wider in its implications, drawing in sympathetic supporters on either side -- East and West -- the likelier it is that the embers of a greater and more widespread conflict can accelerate the flames of war; that World War III hovers on the horizon.
 
It is obvious that Vladimir Putin's end-game is the goal of reshaping of global power dynamics, seeking a counterbalance to Western influence during a summit of BRICS countries where the leaders of China and India visited Russia a week ago. Direct assistance for his war was sought from Iran, whose supply of drones has been most useful to the Kremlin, alongside North Korea's contribution of ammunition to Russia's war machinery.
  • NATO says N.Korean troops may be headed to front line
  • South Korea and Ukraine vow to step up cooperation
  • North Korea's foreign minister arrives in Russia for talks
  • Kremlin doesn't deny reports of N.Korean troops in Russia
"This war is becoming internationalized, extending beyond two countries."
"We agreed to strengthen intelligence and expertise exchange, intensify contacts at all levels, especially the highest, in order to develop an action strategy and countermeasures to address this escalation."                                                                                                             Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
A news broadcast in Seoul on 18 October 2024 showing a satellite image of Russia's Ussuriysk military facility, where intelligence agencies said North Korean personnel were gathered within the training ground.
A news broadcast in Seoul showing a satellite image of Russia's Ussuriysk military facility, where intelligence agencies said North Korean personnel were gathered within the training ground. Photograph: Kim Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock
 
 

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Saturday, September 14, 2024

Russian Counteroffensive to Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Kursk

"We will hold." Everything is under control."
"The situation is serious, everything is being shelled, and the road on which supplies were brought is no longer usable. It's under fire."
"Drones are already everywhere in Sudzha. But we are in control. We are holding."
Ukrainian commander: call name 'Boxer'
 
"The longer they hold Kursk, the weaker Putin becomes."
"The longer they hold Kursk, the better defended Ukraine will be."
British Defence Secretary John Healey
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Ukraine is fighting hard to repel the Russian invaders, but they are slowly making gains  Getty Images
 
The surprise move by Kyiv to have its military counteroffensive focus on the Kursk region inside Russia, relatively close to the border with Ukraine, saw the Ukrainian military tasked to that distracting mission, make inroads in a region with paltry few defences, pushing back the Russian defence forces, and managing to take a huge swath of Russian territory under Ukrainian command, taking possession of 100 villages, necessitating the movement of tens of thousands of Russian citizens departing their homes in favour of sheltering elsewhere.

This military gambit was a gamble, but its success buoyed Ukrainian spirits, while Kyiv waited to see if Moscow would redirect troops from the front lines to the Kursk region, giving some relief to the embattled Ukrainian city of  Pokrovsk, important to Ukraine as a logistics hub. Russian attacks have destroyed critical infrastructure, the city left without gas for cooking or heat, and potable water for the residents still remaining, some 18,000 in number including over 500 children.

Moscow did, after months of Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region, redeploy troops to the area, launching their counteroffensive to retrieve parts of Kursk region occupied by Ukrainian forces. Addressing the issue Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the Russian "counteroffensive actions went according to our Ukrainian plan", declining to elaborate. There was, concurrently, an exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine where some of the 600 prisoners of war taken during the Kursk advance were returned to Russia.
 
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Ukrainian troops are now at risk of encirclement on the front line near Pokrovsk  Reuters
 
Of the original 500 square miles within which were 100 settlements under Ukrainian military control, the new Russian counteroffensive has managed to retake a limited number. A report issued by the Institute for the Study of War reported evidence of some Russian advances, but the size, scale and outcome "are unclear and the situation remains fluid".

Back in Pokrovsk, some 20,000 residents have fled the oncoming Russian military with the final evacuation train. "Evacuation is the only ... choice for civilians", stated Donetsk regional Governor Vadym Filashkin. Near the Donetsk front lines two Red Cross vehicles prepared o distribute wood and coal to warm winter homes were hit by shelling, leaving three dead.

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Civilians are fleeing the area as Russian forces approach  Getty Images

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