Ukraine Unsettling Russia in Crimea

"There's no place to hide in Crimea."

"The Ukrainians have the ability to touch every single place where there's an air defense weapon or a logistics hub or an airfield."

Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, retired commanding general of U.S. Army Europe 

 

"To achieve the final objective, this blockade must be intensified."

"This situation must be maintained for a sufficiently long period of time."

Kostiantyn Mashovetz, Ukrainian military analyst

 

"According to announcements by Ukraine’s drone forces, the USF (Unmanned Systems Forces), dozens of electrical substations or other power infrastructure have been hit by Ukrainian robot aircraft across Crimea in recent weeks, with 38+ strikes claimed in the first week of July and 45+ in the second week of July. Besides power transmission and generation infrastructure, attacks have hit gas distribution stations and compressor stations."

"Most of the strikes have been carried out by Ukraine’s workhorse FP-2 push propeller drone, a slow-flying plane roughly the size of a large sofa. USF commanders have said attacks against the Russia-run power grid in Crimea are succeeding because of months of preliminary attacks that hit and destroyed Russian air defenses. The top Ukrainian target in those preparatory drone attacks has been Russia’s Pantsir gun/missile system, an air defense weapon designed to shoot down drones."

Stefan Korshak, Kyiv Post Senior Defense Correspondent 

Temporarily occupied Crimea (Photo: Reuters)

 

Crimea, annexed by Vladimir Putin in 2014 is being given very special attention at this point in time, a dozen  years later by the Ukraine military, where attacks in recent weeks have been increased substantially for the dual purpose of returning the critical geography to its rightful owner, as well as depriving the Russian military of its supply lines. The Kerch Strait Bridge is in Ukraine's crosshairs, the sole direct link to Russia. Ukraine has targeted bridges and roads in its bid to transform the peninsula from its current status as a Russian-occupied fortress into a military nightmare for the Kremlin.

 

This most recent wave of attacks saw Ukraine targeting air defense and radar systems across the peninsula. The energy grid and fuel reserves have also received attention from the Ukrainian military, battered to the extent that blackouts occur, shaking life in Crimea. Causing Russian forces along the southern front to shift into defensive mode. 

 

In the last week alone, Russia bombarded Kyiv, killing 30 people, in its own show of retaliatory force; its usual tactics, targeting civilian enclaves claiming they were aiming at military targets. A stark contrast in military priorities, where Kyiv focuses on military installations or fuel depots to deprive Russia of its critical fuel lines, and Moscow's response is to hit civilian areas.

 

Moscow's special attention toward its prize restoration of Crimea as part of Russia saw to it that years were spent fortifying the geography with advanced air defenses and coastal batteries, fighter jets and bomber-packed airfields -- while on land, missile launch systems abounded. Russia gave itself direct access to Crimea when it built the $3.7 billion Kerch Strait Bridge. 

 

Even in the conflict's first years, Ukraine had targeted Russia's naval headquarters in Sevastopol, driving Russian warships from Crimean ports. They were limited however, by the weapons in Ukraine's possession at that time. According to Ukrainian officials now, their arsenal is capable of inflicting more pain, in essence sufficiently so, to convince Moscow it needed to return to the negotiating table. 

The view from a Ukrainian drone during what the military says was a strike against Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov. (Commander of Unmanned Aerial Systems Force/Reuters)

 

Videos were posted by Ukrainian military units in June of their Crimean strikes. The clips are a vital part of Ukraine's wartime propaganda, illustrating battlefield successes against Russia. Russian forces were increasingly attempting to counteract Ukrainian drone strikes by patrolling critical southern routes with drones and interceptor units, according to Kateryna Stepanenko, analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. "But they need more mobile air defense to blunt the impact of Ukrainian strikes" she noted. 

 

Ukrainian commanders anticipate that Russian troops would adapt, to shift their tactics in turn: "Adaptation can take days, weeks or months, but we consistently find new ways to strike in any direction, at any depth, with whatever assets we have", stated Artem Bielienkov, chief of staff of Ukraine's 412th Unmanned Systems Brigade. 

 

Widespread blackouts in Crimea have resulted from strikes on fuel facilities. Local authorities have declared a state of emergency, gas stations have run out of fuel, and thousands fled the peninsula since the latest strikes began by Ukraine. There were Ukrainian strikes on oil and gas storage facilities, compression stations and power plants.  

 

"The occupiers' attempts to fix the  damage to key facilities -- like the Tavria and Balaklava thermal power plants, major substations and fuel terminals -- are running into complex technical and logistical problems."

Hennadii Riabtsev, Ukrainian energy analyst