Omicron In Europe

DPA

"Two years into the pandemic, we are not closer to knowing how it actually began. An independent investigation is impossible and key information is lacking. Leading publications are still debating the “lab leak theory” that posits that the virus actually came from a nearby lab."

"And then that very technology, like social media big-tech giants, was put into action to stop us asking questions about the 'lab', and doors were shut to us. Major organizations that were supposed to help stop a pandemic, like the World Health Organization, were telling people as late as January 14, 2020 that 'preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan'."

"We’re still expected to believe, two years later, that we weren’t criminally misled regarding a preventable pandemic, and that basic information wasn’t denied the world in those key weeks in December 2019 and January 2020. Leading Western coronavirus researchers had been studying this exact threat in China in the years before the outbreak and yet, in January 2020, didn’t rush to warn the world or help provide insights into how to prevent a worse pandemic."

Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post 

"Based on mathematical modelling conducted by ECDC [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control], there are indications that Omicron could cause over half of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in the EU/EEA [European Union/European Economic Area] within the next few months."

ECDC statement

 

The world has changed in the last two years; entirely focused on a virus whose global effect has been to roil the world's economic status, alter the entire human social structure, challenge nature's own gifts to humanity, make recluses of gregarious creatures, send people into debt and insecurity, threaten food scarcity, effect a halt in the global distribution system, exhaust hospital resources and those who labour in them, destroy global cohesion even as another natural phenomenon known as climate change clangs another alarm to distract humanity from its preoccupation with the paltry issue of existence.

According to the European Union's public health agency the Omicron variant so recently emerged out of Africa may be responsible for over half of all COVID-19 infections on the continent within a few months. Even so, as yet no cases of severe disease have been identified in the region. Preliminary data relating to the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant is set to be demonstrated in real time, that its infectious rate is higher than that of the previous variant of interest, Delta, which has cut a swath through the world in its relentless wave.

The 27 EU member countries along with Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway comprise the European Economic Area, where inflationary pressures related to the economic outcomes of the disease have presented as yet another challenge to be overcome. At the same time it is useful as a reminder that every time the world breathes a sigh of relief that the worst appears to have passed with COVID, leading to self-congratulations and openings to provide relief for  COVID-weary populations, COVID presents still more unwelcome surprises.

Omicron, according to the top French government scientific adviser, Jean-Francois Delfraissy, could replace Delta as the driving force of pathogenic infection by the end of January. To this point Europe has recorded just under one hundred cases of the new variant, half of which were asymptomatic, the other half with mild symptoms, with no cases featuring severe disease, hospitalization or death. Countries like Germany, Austria and Switzerland are in a parlous state of runaway infections.

 

As the  bloc's largest economy, Germany is on the cusp of launching stark restrictions on its unvaccinated population, a demographic that will not be permitted access to any but the most essential of businesses; grocery stores, pharmacies, bakeries. This in the hope of finally breaking the surge in coronavirus infections where Delta has been the culprit.  With the sudden appearance of a strain superior in its infectability rate, the weary state apparatus straining to protect its public, is pushed to the maximum. 

Hoping to skirt the ultimate solution of a complete lockdown that would impose a strain on the recovery of the German economy, businesses will be kept open to the 69 percent population fully vaccinated, along with those who have recovered from the virus. The fourth wave devastating Europe, risking the intensive care units being overwhelmed resulted in overwhelming numbers of new infections and deaths in Germany. With a vaccination rate standing at just under 70 percent Germany reflects the EU average.

Flirting with the potential of making vaccination mandatory and restricting the numbers of those in attendance at large events like sporting matches are among other dramatic measures being discussed. "How we can encourage and potentially think about mandatory vaccination within the European Union? This needs discussion. This needs a common approach, but it is a discussion that I think has to be led", said Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission.

A sign that reads "Observe the obligation to cover your mouth and nose" is placed on Hohe Strasse shopping street as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues in Cologne, Germany, December 1, 2021. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen

The Death Knell for Small-Business Restaurants

"I think a lot of people who had seven months' worth of debt accrued were looking forward to some revenue to be able to start paying that off."

"Without any revenue whatsoever, it's really going to be hard for many to survive."

James Rilett, spokesperson, Restaurants Canada 

"We need to have a plan that goes until next summer. It makes no sense to me that they're putting the  mental stress and strain on people."

"I've gotten dozens of calls from restaurateurs who are having panic attacks right now."

Andrew Oliver, chief executive, Oliver & Bonacini Hospitality Inc.

/www.tastetoronto.com/news/indoor-dining-to-be-banned-for-the-next-28-days-in-toronto-peel-and-ottawa

The government of Ontario on Friday announced its reluctant commitment to a new set of restrictions in an effort to decrease a massive surge of COVID-19 cases in the province's three hot spots: Toronto, Peel Region and Ottawa. Ontario logged a record-high 939 new cases on Friday, leading to the imposition of the new measures which include the closing down of indoor dining, theatres and gyms for a minimum of 28 days, effective the following day. 

At the Friday news conference it was clear that Ontario Premier Doug Ford was shaken by the measures he has directed, as he repeatedly recommended to the public in the province not to neglect to order takeout. Restaurants are left with only this option. Their temporary reliance on outdoor seating while the weather was good has come to an end with encroaching winter. When the third stage of opening had been announced and they were able to open their indoor dining rooms with restrictions, restaurant owners felt they could finally operate as close to normal as possible.

That hope has now been effectively squelched, if even for a temporarily short period of time, given the previous months beginning with total lockdown, then ordering out and delivering, when they barely managed to retain the few customers' loyalty they had left. Then rebuilding with patio dining and finally indoor dining restricted to a fraction of the seating that had formerly been relied upon to keep business afloat.

 

Now, dire predictions of failing businesses as a major source of their revenue has been shut off for struggling restaurants, are rife.

The main trade association for the industry has given warning that cutting off indoor dining will remove approximately 80 percent of sales for full-service restaurants. Restaurants Canada has estimated that 33,000 restaurant employees will lose employment in Toronto alone, while 12,000 will become unemployed in Ottawa, and 14,000 in Peel Region, just north of Toronto. Projections indicate that about 50 percent of independent Canadian restaurants are set to fail in 2021, barring significant intervention.

 

Ottawa Restaurant, CTV News

 

The same day of the Friday announcement of closures in the province, the federal government announced a new rent relief program to cover up to 65 percent of rent for businesses affected by the  coronavirus epidemic, along with up to 90 percent of rent for those businesses facing the new shutdown measures, stating as well that a wage-subsidy program will be extended to December, covering 65 percent of workers' wages.

The province itself announced $300 million in funding for those businesses in the affected areas; relief on property taxes and utility bills in specific, while the government promised additional details "in the coming days", leaving business owners on tenterhooks of confusion and concern. "I didn't sleep last night. I know what this will do to businesses that are already struggling", a confliced Premier Ford stated, half-apologetically, with little option left him but to follow recommendations.

Unfortunately, the takeout Premier Ford was so anxious to underline as a partial solution to the no-indoors dining, cannot fill the earning gap for many businesses who will be faced with the necessity to take on additional debt merely to survive, and many won't.

"This 28 day temporary closure of certain businesses presents an opportunity for us to collectively realize the seriousness of what is before us, and for all of us to reset and refocus our actions towards flattening the curve and eliminating the virus."

"What's changed is the province has decided now, along with their Chief Medical Officer of Health [Dr. David Williams], that restaurants must close in the three so-called hotspots, Peel Region, Toronto and Ottawa and we will adhere to that."

"We felt that at the time the restaurant industry by-and-large was doing a very good job of respecting physical distancing, masking their employees, hand sanitizing, limiting it to six people per table. But obviously a lot has changed with this virus. The province has ruled we must follow their regulations, and we'll fully comply and support those regulations brought down by the province today."

"I've always indicated that we will follow the advice coming from the various tables at the province. We felt that the proposal we put forward of limiting six people at the table and continue to practice physical distancing appeared to be working and that was back on Sept. 30."

"Fast forward to today and obviously our numbers continue to go up and up, and that's obviously cause for great concern on our part."

"We will use this 28 day period obviously to analyze in fact if the closure of the restaurants has been effective and we start to see the numbers go down significantly, then obviously it was the right decision."

"If not, I'll have that conversation with the premier because this is an important part of the economy."

Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson 

Defying Illness and Death for Life-as-Usual

"What we see is that in many states, you see an increase in influenza-like illnesses, and then a week or two later, you see an increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza."
"It provides some confirmation that what we are seeing is related to coronavirus."
"We decided to look at all deaths from pneumonia, or all deaths overall, and see how those numbers were changing,"
Dan Weinberger, epidemiology of infectious diseases, Yale University

Protesters demonstrate against safer-at-home orders at the Colorado Capital in Denver on Sunday. Some counties there have implemented stricter measures than the state, which had announced an easing for some businesses starting Monday. (Jason Connolly/AFP/Getty Images)

"In New York City, this discrepancy [between numbers forecasted and numbers realized] was even more stark, with three to four times as many excess all-cause deaths as pneumonia and influenza deaths."
"For instance, California had 101 reported deaths due to COVID-19 and 399 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths."
"Many states experienced a notable increase in the proportion of total deaths due to P&I (pneumonia and influenza) starting in mid-March through March 28 compared to what would be expected based on the time of year and influenza activity."
"In some states, such as Florida and Georgia, the increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza preceded the widespread adoption of testing for the novel coronavirus by several weeks."  

"Given the lack of adequate testing and geographical variability in testing intensity, this type of monitoring provides key information on the severity of the epidemic in different geographic regions."

"It also provides some indication of the degree to which viral testing is missing deaths associated with COVID-19 directly or indirectly."Research report, published in MedRxiv

The United States has been hit by one of the globe's worst epidemics of novel coronavirus. The death toll is approaching 58,000, increasing at a steadily rapid rate. Despite this, a growing number of state governors appear to be defying reality, in lock-step with the president anxious to see a return to normal life, in particular that business as usual would resume. The economy has been put to a standstill. From a situation of full employment and more jobs than people to fill them, suddenly mass unemployment has struck the country. On Saturday alone, there was an additional 2,404 coronavirus deaths reported.

Yet, a belief born of desperation appears to be informing decision makers, that the worst of the outbreak could have passed, matching pressure from the corporate community that the devastated U.S. economy must see some relief from the imposition of lockdown. Across the country anger and frustration have seen protests erupt, with citizens decrying the unneeded security steps, that their liberties have been abridged, that the American way of life has been upended for no good and reasonable purpose.

As evidence of that looming distrust in government action in response to the advice from their top expert medical advisers, Americans are demonstrating their penchant for ignoring stay-at-home orders in a demonstration of quarantine fatigue. A team led by the University of Maryland, with the use of mobile-phone data, discovered that Americans have been leaving the confines of self-isolation in increasing numbers.

Operating manager Barry Lennon cleans up the table of customer Duke Scott in the empty dining room of the J. Christopher's restaurant on Monday in Brookhaven, Ga. As of Monday, restaurants around Georgia are allowed to offer dine-in service. (Jessica McGowan/Getty Images)

In California, thousands of people have gone to the beaches amid soaring temperatures on the weekend, choosing to entirely ignore the state governor's orders. Demonstrations have been reported in Springfield, Ill and Baton Rouge, La. Demonstrations in Michigan, where one of the worst breakouts has occurred in Chicago, have been supported by conservative groups. In response the governor agreed to ease some of the imposed curbs allowing some businesses to reopen.

In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp is allowing hairdressers, nail salons and tattoo parlours to re-open their premises; hardly the essence of 'essential' services for a population in lockdown against a dread disease. There have been guidelines issued that clients and staff wear masks and customers be asked questions of their health conditions; with no way to monitor compliance. A raft of businesses will be permitted to operate over the coming week in around 20 states.

According to the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Tom Inglesby, he believes the country is "at the end of the beginning" of the crisis. As for President Trump, he has stated that his daily White House briefings are to be scrapped, "not worth the time and effort".

Some health experts and local politicians are concerned that restrictions put in place to slow the spread of COVID-19 are being lifted too soon in some U.S. states such as Georgia.