Canada-U.S. Trade Insecurity

"Taken together, size does not change the direction of travel, but it does influence the pace."

"Larger, more globally integrated firms are responding earlier and at greater scale, while smaller firms remain earlier in the cycle."

"This highlights both the potential scale of the shift and the likelihood that similar patterns may emerge across other sectors."

KPMG Canada 

 

"While most manufacturers are staying, many are reassessing where future investment, growth and production will occur. The decisions made today will shape Canada's manufacturing sector for years to come."

"Businesses can only operate in endurance mode for so long."

"At some point, uncertainty begins to shape long-term decisions about where investment, production and growth will occur."

"[While Canadian manufacturing still has a part to play in North America], the question is how strong that position will be." 

Anamika Gadia, KPMG Canada partner/national leader, industrial markets

Trade uncertainty is prompting more Canadian manufacturers to shift production to the U.S. and delay investments in Canada, a new survey finds. Photo by Peter Power

 

Ongoing and worsening trade uncertainty with Canada's largest trading partner across the long 'undefended' border with the United States is creating an atmosphere of economic destabilization in Canada the likes of which have never in anyone's living memory ever before been seen. The situation has led a growing number of Canadian manufacturers to move their enterprises or to plan to move a portion of their production to the U.S. A majority, responding to a recent survey, plan to restrain themselves in their Canadian investments.

 

This is a scenario seen before in a much more prolonged manner when China in the process of becoming the manufacturing behemoth it now is, began flooding the international market with consumer goods to be sold at prices that appealed hugely to the purchasing public throughout Europe and North America. Cheaper goods, widely available, because of cheap Chinese labour and government support (subsidies) eventually convinced manufacturers throughout the Western world that since they were unable to match the pricing and wide range of Chinese-produced goods, it was best to fold their manufacturing and submit to the inevitable.

 

Under this volatile administration with a president who believes himself an expert on deal-making, and who has been accusing all countries globally that have or were doing business with the United States of taking 'advantage' of the most powerful economic force on the planet, and he wasn't going to take it any longer, so here's tariffs for you, and you, and you, the world is reeling. Try that on for size. And as much as global manufacturing had been altered by the world's premier production manufacturing in China, the world economy was far more immediately and deeply beleaguered and beggared by the new Trump-led upending of world trade alliances.

 

According to the 2026 KPMG Canada manufacturing poll, four in ten (42 percent) of Canadian companies have latterly adjusted their horizons by shifting or planning to shift production to the United States, 29 percent of whom had already taken the plunge in banking on the move to further their bottom line. Another 13 percent plan to do likewise, while 77 percent of that group anticipate committing within two years  under the operating environment as it is at present. 

 

Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

 

"I love Canada [but I'm] not going to bend."

"The United States can't subsidize a country for $200 billion a year, We don't need their cars. We don't need their energy. We don't need their lumber. We don't need anything that they give."

"We do it because we want to be helpful. But it comes a point when you just can't do that."

"[Canada, a longtime ally, would be much better off without tariffs -- as part of the U.S.]"

"[Not to use military force against Canada, only] economic force."

"That would really be something [taking control of Canada]."

"You get rid of that artificially drawn line, and you take a look at what that looks like. And it would also be much better for national security. They’re great, but we’re spending hundreds of billions here to protect it [subsidies include substantial military support while the United States loses out through trade deficits]."

U.S. President Donald Trump  

The majority (49 percent) represent businesses with over $300 million in gross revenue, mostly having made the move in full or in part. A third (34 percent) of companies generating less than $300 million have or are planning to move, leaving a mere fifth (20 percent) which have as yet chosen to take no action. "Higher margins when producing and selling within the U.S. than when exporting from Canada", reported a third (32 percent) of respondents, attesting to "stronger margins on international sales from the U.S."

 

Lower operating costs in some states, more favourable tax environment and easier supply chains when customers are already in the U.S. are cited by some firms choosing to migrate south -- outside of the tariffs issue. When queried what circumstances could alleviate the situation to the point where owners would prefer to remain in Canada, corporate executives and decision-makers representing 275 companies polled responded that certainty around free trade, continued tariff relief, lower corporate taxes, cheaper energy, better access to skilled workers and lower housing costs for workers. 

 

 The survey revealed capital investment projects have been "paused, reduced or cancelled" by 57 percent of firms, with 42 percent operating similarly with respect to their research and development.          Roughly half of those polled stated they were focused on weathering the economic tempests driven largely by U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies. The poll revealed as well that 61 percent felt they would be unable to remain in business lacking access to the U.S. market. Almost all (96 percent) stated their products qualified for tariff-free treatment under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. An Agreement that is now lacking stability given the U.S. refusal to renegotiate.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Prime Minister Mark Carney (right) attend a work lunch as part of the G7 summit, in Evian, France, June 16, 2026. Photo by Evelyn Hockstein / POOL / AFP /Getty Images

 

"While tariffs are an obvious factor, Canadian manufacturers are making long-term decisions about where to locate based on a broader assessment of where they are most likely to have a competitive advantage."

"Otherwise, Canadian exporters may have to depend on U.S. customers to act as importer of record, potentially straining key commercial relationships."

Joy Nott, KPMG Canada partner, trade and customs 

The Ebola Outbreak Continues to Plague the DRC

"This is the fastest growing Ebola outbreak ever, not only among the previous Bundibugyo outbreaks, but all the different viruses that are causing Ebola."

 "Unfortunately, the virus is still ahead of our response. It's moving faster than deploying the resources to control the situation."

Wessam Mankoula, head, emergency preparedness and response, African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention 

WHO/ Josua Mulala Raymond

 

A statement from the World Health Organization on Thursday affirmed that the Democratic Republic of Congo's Ebola outbreak represents the "fastest growing" such communicable disease of its type ever. To the present, 600 people had died of its effect. The UN health agency's  updated numbers were that 1,759 confirmed cases in DR Congo occurred since mid-May, when the outbreak was declared.

 

Mr. Mankoula compared the situation to the deadliest Ebola outbreak up to this point which occurred in 2013-16 in West Africa, with 994 cases in the first six weeks, while with the current outbreak and an identical time period, 1,596 had been enumerated. The rare Bundibugyo species identified with the current outbreak has no approved vaccine nor treatment. It is believed to have spread for an  undetected period of time. Ebola spreads through close contact and infected bodily fluids.

 

Healthcare workers tend to an Ebola patient in Ituri. Photograph: Moses Sawasawa/AP

 

Health authorities in the vast geography of the country which supplied the WHO's figures, indicate that the outbreak in the DRC has a case fatality rate of 34 percent. To date, 285 patients have recovered from their morbid infection. Another 304 suspected cases are under investigation. Four provinces have been hit by the disease in the northeastern DRC where the outbreak is located, where the worst-hit area is Ituri province.

 

On July 2nd, two potential treatments for Bundibugyo began as trials to evaluate the effectiveness of the monoclonal antibody MBP134 and the antiviral drug remdesivir alone and in combination.  It was on May 15 following several deaths in Ituri province where armed groups have destabilized the area creating a massive number of displaced people living in internal refugee camps that the outbreak was formally declared. 

 

According to Anne Ancia of the WHO in the DRC, there are some 700 beds available across 22 operating treatment centres. Efforts currently are underway to open an additional 300 beds. As well, and critically, over 10,000 contacts of those infected are being monitored, with a follow-up rate of 82 percent. Yet a 95 percent rate of follow-up of the infected is required -- according to the WHO -- to effectively tame the outbreak.

 

"Population movements, persistent insecurity, and the fragility of the health system continue to complicate efforts to bring the outbreak under control."

"Humanitarian needs remain substantial, particularly regarding civilian protection, access to food, and essential health services, while other diseases such as malaria and measles continue to spread. "

"[Treatment centres are operating at around 90 percent capacity] placing significant pressure on the response." 

Anne Ancia, DRC representative for the World Health Organization 

UNFPA/Jonas Yunus    Health workers in North Kivu, eastern DR Congo, prepare to treat patients as the Ebola outbreak continues.

 

 

Women in Afghanistan--Striving and Surviving

"Our mothers used to tell us that they worked hard so our future would be better and more peaceful."

"Our future did not become better or more peaceful."

"Now we tell our own children the same thing, but I don't think that will happen."

Fariba Noori, acting head Afghanistan's Women's Chamber of Commerce and Industry 

A woman working in a saffron company, Herat province, western Afghanistan, May 2023. Photo: UN Women/Sayed Habib Bidell

 

Over ten thousand Afghan women have secured business licenses, according to the Afghanistan Chamber of commerce and Industry, in the country where the ruling Taliban government has imposed the world's strictest restrictions on girls and women. Those same women and girls have been faced with the existential necessity of fending for themselves and some manage do just that by starting their own businesses which must comply with government rules. 

 

Women's enterprise in seeking out ways that can help them avoid starvation and feed their families, do so within the most incongruously infelicitous political/social/religious atmosphere almost anywhere on the globe under totalitarian Islamist governance. Girls may not attend school beyond the equivalent of a primary education; where once young woman in Afghanistan flocked to universities, this administration has locked them out. Women who once strode the streets of the country's cities with confidence employed in responsible positions, are now constrained by edict to remain in their homes.

 

Women-led businesses are the largest employer of women in the private sector. The company Kandahar Treasure is one of them. Photo: Kandahar Treasure

 

Once they were lawyers, engineers, university professors, medical practitioners in women's only hospitals, now they must seek no higher than to become of necessity carpet weavers, cosmeticians or vocational trainers -- for the Taliban government has closed them off from working at government jobs or for nonprofits. They may no longer operate beauty salons, study midwifery or nursing, speak with male clients, suppliers or banking officials.  

 

Fewer than 7 percent of Afghan women had employment in 2024, according to the United Nations Development Program, in a country that restricts its women from working outside their homes other than female-restricted places where men cannot enter. One of the last and only methods by which Afghan women can employ themselves gainfully in support of their households is through entrepreneurship, within the confines of the government's strict guidelines.

 

There are examples of success on a modest, life-saving scale emerging in an unhealthy economy. One such takes place in a warehouse in Mazar-i-Sharif where 60 women  knot, trim and weave rugs for their employer, 19-year-old Nasira Azazi. Barred from studying beyond grade six, she was 14 when the Taliban returned to power.

 

"I fell into depression. Here, there are at least more topics to discuss, more motivation to get the job done", she explained of the business she launched with financial support from the U.N. Development Program. Her business now employees about 450 female workers located in two workshops as well as at their own homes. The business by necessity has become a family affair.

 

She is reliant on her two brothers for the designs of the rugs her business produces, along with the marketing, while her father runs one of the workshops. Management, human resources, finances are Ms. Azizi's responsibility. She is limited in her public activities, since she cannot herself do business with male clients. Women themselves must rely on male family members to conduct business on their behalf.

 

Ghoncha Karimi, Photo Kiana Hayeri, The New York Times

 

Ghoncha Karimi, a 39-year-old beekeeper, occasionally outfits herself like a man in her travels outside Herat to tend to her apiaries on the city's outskirts. She has 50 beehives and the honey she is able to produce and sell contributes greatly to her family's income. When the Taliban, in 2023 made it clear she could no longer receive male clients in her shop, her sales were diminished. When she objected to these constraints to a Taliban official she was imprisoned for 20 days' punishment.

 

According to Samullah Ibrahimi of the Afghan Ministry of Work and Social Affairs, women are encouraged to pursue vocational training programs, with the women expected to respect "the principles of the country". He referred to a "committee for economic empowerment" that had provided work for 26 Afghan women in 2026, out of a population in Afghanistan of close to 45 million people.

 

An Afghan woman entrepreneur displaying her products at the Oman expo, supported by UN Women, January 2025. Photo: UN Women

 

Lax Canadian Port Inspection Invites Trafficker Exploitation

"British Columbia’s Pacific ports are economic lifelines for Western Canada, moving exports and keeping supply chains running. They are also under-secured."

"Traffickers treat inspection risk as negligible and build their business model around the odds."

"Canada needs a standing Pacific port security task force, not another temporary working group." 

"Canada can have a Pacific trade strategy, or it can have a thin-security Pacific gateway. It cannot credibly have both."

Scott McGregor senior adviser, Council for Countering Hybrid Warfare 

New report says weak inspections, fragmented oversight and outdated security leave Canada’s western trade gateway exposed

 

A new report focuses on the lack of inspection of shipping containers at the Port of Vancouver, which traffickers use to their advantage to ship tons'-weight of methamphetamine to Australia. Released by the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, the report centres on Vancouver and Prince Rupert which move huge volumes of cargo, very little of which is checked, while there is no single agency responsible for overseeing inspections.

 

Shipping containers are fractionally imaged, with fewer than one percent physically searched in Metro Vancouver, according to a City of Delta report written by former RCMP deputy commissioner Peter German, which the municipality had commissioned back in 2023. An audit by an internal Canada Border Services Agency of marine-mode targeting from 2020 to 2022 similarly concluded that the agency failed to target exports, outbound vessels or crew, leaving cargo exiting Canada with less scrutiny than on arrival.

 

The Canada Border Services Agency announced in June of 2023 that over 6,330 kilograms of methamphetamine hidden in jugs labelled as canola oil bound for Australia -- one of the four Metro Vancouver busts -- with a seizure of close to 3,000 kilograms representing the largest methamphetamine seizure in the agency's history, serves as an example of the scale of trafficking. 

 

Canada, points out senior adviser with the Frontier Centre, is used as a launch point as the drugs' value is considerably increased overseas. While not a major destination, Canada has become one of the world's leading source countries to achieve  higher margins abroad. Yet a Public Safety Canada briefing note claims little to no evidence exists from Canadian or U.S. law enforcement that fentanyl produced in Canada is a growing threat to the United States.  

Port of Vancouver freight container shipping dock. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /10109967A

 

The RCMP dismantled, it said, the largest, most sophisticated drug superlab in Canadian history at Falkland, British Columbia in October of 2024. The fentanyl and precursor chemicals seized would have produced over 95 million potentially lethal doses. One individual was arrested in that raid. The problem, the report points out, is that no government body is in charge, with port security responsibility split among port authorities, the CBSA, RCMP and Transport Canada; no single body accountable for the system.

 

The Ports Canada Police dedicated ports force in Canada was disbanded in 1997 by the federal government, while funding for an RCMP-led waterfront enforcement unit was ended by the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority in 2015. The country, pointed out McGregor, author of the report, requires intelligence-led port security, not paperwork-led security where large busts are announced as a public-reassurance method, which has no impact on how traffickers operate.

 

The same gaps allowing traffickers to operate could be exploited by hostile states for sanctions evasion and foreign interference, points out Mr. McGregor, speaking from the perspective of his work on hybrid warfare...framing a warning risked by lax inspection leaving the country vulnerable on many counts. Should Canada not secure its ports representing Canada's economic trade engine, they will be used by malign players; equating national security with economic security. 

 

And nor is the West Coast ports the sole shipping-security vulnerability in Canada. In the east, the Port of Montreal is just as lax. And there police have been alerted to an epidemic plague of stolen vehicles being shipped abroad; the lack of inspection taken full advantage of by criminal gangs. Those gangs hire young thugs to steal vehicles throughout cities like Toronto, and the profits realized from shipping and selling them abroad fuel their purchase and smuggling of illegal weapons, primarily from the U.S. into Canada.

 

Shipping containers in the Port of Montreal are photographed in Montreal on Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

 

 Fewer than two per cent of inbound containers at Metro Vancouver receive imaging and fewer than one per cent are physically searched.

Canada lacks a systematic program for targeting outbound cargo, vessels and crews despite major export drug seizures.

Responsibility for port security is divided among multiple federal agencies and port authorities, leaving no single organization accountable.

Organized crime exploits insider access, limited inspections and fragmented governance to move illicit goods through Canada’s Pacific gateway.

Hostile foreign states can exploit many of the same vulnerabilities for espionage, sanctions evasion and supply-chain disruption.

Inland logistics hubs and foreign trade zones require stronger oversight as part of Canada’s port security system.

The report recommends 10 reforms, including a permanent joint task force, expanded inspections, stronger cyber security and improved accountability.

Frontier Centre for Public Policy 

Most border enforcement focuses on imports, yet major drug seizures continue to involve exports destined for overseas markets.

  

Exactly Whose Cognitive Imbalance?

"Five years in a penitentiary is a tough sentence in any circumstances, and even more so for a first time offender. When a developmental disability is added to that mix, in my view it becomes cruel and unusual."

"Although the counts on the indictment date from when D.C. was already 18 and his sister was therefore 14, it is an agreed fact that they began when she was only 12 and it is relevant to take that into account on sentencing."

"These assaults included penetrative intercourse. Sometimes he would use a condom. Other times when he did not wear a condom, he would go to the bathroom to ejaculate."

"[The girl sometimes protested having sex with her brother. She] felt pain and did not enjoy it. He proceeded anyway. At other times, she did not protest, but she never subjectively consented."

"Sometimes, he would reward her for sex by giving her money or candy. [She] surreptitiously audio-recorded [one sexual assault that was used as evidence against her brother.] On the recording the complainant can be heard telling D.C. she was in pain and also telling him to stop." 

Justice Anne Molloy, Ontario Superior Court of Justice sentencing decision

Women asking that their human rights be upheld wait in vain in Canada; 'Justice' favours the abusers

 

"[Its] extremely rare [ for judges to bypass mandatory minimums. The gap between a five-year minimum and house arrest is so large that that's kind of striking."

"I think there is a big problem here because mostly the public is going to say that giving a house arrest as a penalty for something as serious as a sexual assault of a person under 16 and also incest really sends the wrong message to the public as to how serious we take that offence."

"I realize she's balancing the disability and those appropriate considerations on the other side, but by having such a big gap, I think most people would find that problematic."

Wayne MacKay, professor emeritus, Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University  

A man said to be developmentally intellectually incapacitated to the point that his judgement is impaired, impressing a judge presiding at his trial for statutory rape, incest and four years of raping his sister, somehow knew enough not to make her pregnant through his constant rapes. Wearing a condom, but taking steps when a condom wasn't available to ejaculate outside the vagina he was penetrating. That takes some fairly sophisticated thought.

 

That he graduated from high school and went on to find a responsible job driving a forklift, certainly means he is capable of functioning at a fairly medium level. Society is full of people whose cognitive ability and workplace capability is far below the threshhold that this man has reached. His sister is credited as well as her rapist with intellectual disabilities. At age 16, after four years of tolerating the intolerable, she decided to inform her high school guidance counsellor "that her brother had been sexually assaulting her for years".

 

That set in motion an investigation when the counsellor contacted police and investigators finally charged the brother, named only D.C. during trial proceedings to protect the identity of his sister and family. The judge's decision in the trial mentioned that the perpetrator had watched pornography for titillation then  emulated what he saw on his sister, the while informing her that she "needed to know how these things felt as preparation for when she had a husband and wanted to get pregnant".

 

Despite acknowledging the heinous nature of these constant physical, painful and unwanted predations on his sister, the judge still felt it appropriate to sentence the man to house arrest ruling out the mandatory minimum five-year sentence for incest with someone under 16, feeling it to be "grossly disproportionate" for offenders suffering from intellectual disabilities. A 'defence expert' had testified that D.C. has an intellectual disability that gives him a cognitive age equivalency of nine to 12 years of age.

 

Nine to twelve-year old boys aren't expected to graduate high school. Nor are they given the opportunity to earn a driver's licence. Yet the judge saw fit while convicting D.C. on two counts of incest and one count of sexual assault to give him a conditional sentence of two years less a day, and three years of probation. That is quite a forgiveness message to send the young man and his victim, much less broader society, that claiming a mental handicap excuses serious criminality.

 

There are many people of low intelligence throughout society, most of whom are law-abiding, cognizant of the social contract that forbids such criminal behaviour and not given to begin with, to succumb to such despicable actions. The law exists for the very purpose of apprehending, sending to trial and meting out punishments appropriate to the crime committed, all those who practice assaults on others as their just due. Generally speaking, anyone charged and convicted of a serious crime expresses remorse, just as children do because their actions have been deemed injurious and unacceptable, and apologizing lifts the load of censure.

 

D.C. appears to have been privileged above many others of low intelligence by having completed high school, received a driver's licence, and found employment in a warehouse. He is not eligible for, nor does he need government assistance. Yet according to the judge: "Because of his disability he falls squarely within the concept of 'diminished moral blameworthiness", even while recognizing that "incest is one of the most heinous of sex crimes, with profound and typically long-lasting effects". 

 

Clearly, for the victim, not the perpetrator. 

 

The Ontario Superior Court of Justice in Toronto. Photo by Dave Thomas / Postmedia

 

"It seems to me that D.C. now has insight into what he did, and the pain he caused. I found him to be genuinely remorseful for his actions."

"He is obviously capable of learning and he is a person who likes to please others. He will benefit greatly from counselling about issues of sexuality and consent, as well as family parameters."

"I doubt very much that he will learn these things within the confines of a federal penitentiary, where other inmates are simply not like him, and where courses would not be geared to his cognitive age."

"I see great potential for rehabilitation with D.C. and I fear that s ending him to prison would endanger, rather than enhance, his prospects for the future."

Justice Anne Molly 

The Gulf Nations in Iran-War Fallout Disarray

"[The U.S.-Iran agreement] rehabilitates Tehran's regime as a regional power."

"[The financial benefits that it could confer] will make Iran a greater monster than it was before."

Abdulrahman al-Rashed, Saudi journalist 

 

"It's left a big wound. It's going to take a long, long time to recover."

"We are terrified that this is going to be an ongoing war."

"[It feels like the Trump administration is looking at the Gulf] as an A.T.M. [and that] bothers a lot of people." 

Khalid Al-Jaber, head, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Qatar research institute

A smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16, 2026. (AFP)

 

Interesting that this commentator writing out of Qatar fields a singular perspective without considering that Qatar itself has invested millions upon millions upon millions in the United States, as though its treasury was unlimited, in indebting U.S. colleges and universities, to the Middle East country for its generosity. And to believe that this is done simply for a love of America by an oil-rich Gulf state is to be naive beyond redemption. Qatar, in seeking influence for its 'philanthropy' in America does in fact, resemble an A.T.M. 

"Why has a country of just 330,000 citizens that is half the size of New Jersey and a leading patron of the Muslim Brotherhood plowed $400 billion dollars into the United States? This amounts to approximately $1.2 million per Qatari citizen — an enormous sum."

"Some Americans may welcome the generosity of the Qatari regime. After all, one could argue that a great many of these investments — spanning energy, defense, biotech and other important sectors — serve to benefit the U.S. economy and U.S. citizens. One could also argue that Qatar, like Japan, Canada, or other countries that sink billions in the United States, simply seeks return on investment."

"But Qatar is different. There are more than a few reasons to question the largesse of the Qatari government. At the end of the day, Qatar is ruled by an Islamist, autocratic regime; Freedom House consistently ranks the country as “Not Free” in its annual Freedom in the World survey. And Doha’s failure to guarantee the rights of its citizens is not the biggest problem."

"Rather, it is the country’s tendency to support jihadi causes in the Middle East that raises significantly more concern. The country’s horrific track record in this regard distinguishes Qatar from other Gulf states that spread their wealth in America."

Jonathan Schantzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies  

That little quibble dispensed with, one can indeed feel a level of sympathy for the newly-occurring plight of wealthy Gulf Arab nations, witnessing and experiencing a regional war too close to home for comfort.

Few countries in the Middle East view the Islamic Republic of Iran through a lens of tender brotherhood. Those that do stand out from say, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Qatar and Oman, on the other hand, have a pronounced soft spot for the truculent totalitarian Islamist government that the entire Middle East views as a threat to peace and stability. 

 

A building damaged in a reported Iranian drone strike, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Seef, Manama, Bahrain, March 10, 2026. (Reuters)

 

In the region most exposed to Iran's firepower, suddenly normality has been upended. The violence of Iran's chastising its near neighbours for accepting American bases on their soil, expressed by Iran's disruptive drone and missile attacks has disabused its neighbours of the attitude that this is Israel's and the United States' conflict with Iran, nothing to do with them, even  while they have been hoping that the Iranian regime would fall and relieve the regional tension and threats emanating from Iran with a changeover to a new, non-threatening regime.

 

And to further compound matters, the economic hits courtesy of Iran's closing of the Strait of Hormuz, the main international waterway for exporting oil, fertilizer, LNG and other products globally has been deliberately constrained creating an economic dilemma of no mean proportions. American bases on Kuwaiti soil, UAE and Saudi Arabian soil and elsewhere made them surprised sitting ducks for Iranian blowback. Suddenly the Gulf countries realize that despite their enormous oil wealth their defense capabilities are minimal, necessitating an upsurge on spending for military hardware and defense.

 

Iran has attacked Gulf states in retaliation for Israeli and US bombing on its country AFP via Getty Images

 

No other course of action is feasible with Dubai and Doha having suffered immense missile hits leaving their luxury towers smoldering. Incoming missile alerts have introduced a new, unwelcome reality to Iran's neighbours, suddenly vulnerable to unexpected attack. The Emirates were forced to close their schools for weeks, while foreign residents fled. Interception of most of the thousands of missiles and drones out of Iran succeeded in keeping damage and lives lost to a relative minimum, but no country and no population appreciates living with this level of uncertainty.

 

Each of the targeted countries went their own way, there was no unified reaction. Qatar as usual presented itself as a key mediator between the United States and Iran, alongside Pakistan for the same purpose...supporting Iran and convincing the U.S. that a ceasefire is infinitely preferential to ongoing kinetic hostilities, punishing to the Gulf States and placing U.S. servicemen in ongoing danger. 

 

Negotiations amidst the uncertainty and tension have led the Emirates to strengthen alliances with both the United Sates and Israel. A pre-conflict rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has seen the Saudis keeping options open; maintaining channels with Iran, while attempting to influence American decision-making. Attesting to the medieval-era relational strains, Saudi Arabia and Iran are at loggerheads over Mecca, and the threat posed by Iran toward Saudi Arabia historically seems to have petered out for the present.

 

Gulf nations are now busy planning how best to proceed with uninterrupted passage of oil, food and other goods shipped out of the Middle East to global destinations. A new strategy of "zero Hormuz dependency" has persuaded the Emiratis to expand its ports outside the critical Strait susceptible to further closures by Iran, and to build oil pipelines and railways. Oman with its ports on the Arabian Sea far from the Strait is now seen as a crucial logistics hub trucking goods overland for its neighbours. 

 

Qatar has become one of the biggest exporters of natural gas  AFP via Getty Images

 

Astronomy's Headache: Night-Sky Illumination

"When a satellite crosses what we observe, it makes a bright streak on our image, zapping whatever is behind it."

"For the past few years, this has been happening -- but it is still manageable."

"But if we go from 14,000 to 1.7 million [orbiting satellites], we are really going to have problems."

"[Whether in France, the Sahara Desert or Chile, the sky] would no longer be clear, resembling instead the sky seen in the suburbs of a city."

"[And in light-polluted cities the satellites] would be the only 'stars' visible in the night sky." 

Olivier Hainaut, European Southern Observatory 

 

"Astronomy generates huge value for humankind, including scientific, technical, economical, and educational, and helps us understand our place in the Universe."

"The large number of planned satellites in low-Earth orbit challenges that capacity, underscoring the need to limit future satellite launches and for astronomers, engineers, satellite operators and other stakeholders to work together to adopt strict mitigation measures."

ESO Director General Xavier Barcons 

One hour of satellites over the northern Atacama Desert in Chile (October 2025) (Credit: F. Kamphues, ESO/M. Kornmesser)

 

 

Astronomers have known for many years that such a catastrophic event for viewing the night sky was imminent as more and more satellites were sent into orbit year after year, and plans to increase those numbers dramatically would be in the works, blocking their access to viewing the night sky, New research has once again warned of "devastating consequences for astronomy" in view of, and taking account of Earth's orbit in coming years drowning in swarms of huge, extremely bright satellites that represent an "existential threat" to telescopes viewing the universe.

 

The latest research, published in Astronomy & Astrophysics through the European Southern Observatory (ESO) warns that the loss of the observable night sky would represent a dreadful loss to humankind. The team of researchers from ESO who produced the study urge for a re-consideration, that no greater number than 100,000 satellites should be launched, to preserve the capacity for astronomy to continue making findings explaining more about the universe and our place in it. 

 

This is the first study to calculate how the visual disturbance of large, particularly bright satellites in released constellations would impact astronomical observations through producing a night sky that is no longer the dark heaven that nature intended, but one bright enough to critically interfere with the observable universe that ever more powerful telescopes make possible. Currently, there is an estimated 14,000 satellites orbiting Earth, many of which have been launched by Space X's Starlink internet constellation. 

 

Falcon 9 launches 24 @StarLink from California, Space X

 

 Plans to launch over a million satellites by 2028 to serve as data centres powering the boom in artificial intelligence has been announced by Space X. Additionally, projects such as the 'Cinnamon' plans of start-up E-Space and Chinese constellations CTC-1 and CTC-2 would add other hundreds of thousands more satellites. Reflect Orbital, another U.S. startup, plans to launch 50,000 huge satellites using giant mirrors to reflect sunlight back down to Earth with the intention of providing light over a night-darkened Earth.

 

The prospect for the near future is that over 1.7 million satellites could conceivably light the night sky and in the process obscure or blot out views of ground-based telescopes. Essentially the Reflect Orbital satellites alone pose a particularly significant threat to the dark night skies. The light they scatter will make each one as bright as Venus, even when their mirrors are not pointed at the observer. 

 

The ESO observers concluded that images captured by the largest camera ever to have been built, part of the new Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile, would be rendered invalid. Moreover, concerns over making space a junkyard of revolving satellites, many of which might collide, along with parts and pieces that fall to Earth, represents a potential dilemma of immense proportions. 

 

A Soyuz rocket lifts off from a launch site in Vostochny, 5 November, 2024 AP Photo

 

"Sending thousands of satellites has implications: economical, ecological, and astronomical."

"[Light pollution from very bright satellite constellations can impact the health and functioning of life on Earth, by disrupting biological clocks and ecosystems. Large constellations also have direct impacts on air quality from the numerous launches required to send and maintain thousands of satellites, as well as from the atmospheric pollution caused as they burn up on re-entry at the end of life]."

"My job is astronomy, so I quantify the effects on astronomy. I hope others will evaluate the other impacts in their field of expertise."

"Low Earth orbit is a celestial seashore that provides immense value to modern life, from global connectivity to our clear access to the Universe. However, we must manage the footprint of mega-constellations — from the light pollution affecting astronomy to the atmospheric effects of satellite re-entry — to ensure this resource remains pristine and accessible for future generations."

Olivier Hainaut, ESO study lead author  

Planned 1.7 million satellites 'devastating' for astronomy by making night sky brighter AP Photo