Ruminations

Blog dedicated primarily to randomly selected news items; comments reflecting personal perceptions

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

The Horrors of Psychotic Impulse

"The accused came up from the basement and blood was observed on the accused's body and clothing."
"[The children went to the basement and] observed their father striking their mother with an axe repeatedly."
"The cause of death was multiple sharp-force trauma as a result of the accused repeatedly striking the victim in the neck with an axe."
Assistant Crown attorney Kristina Mildred 
 
"The definition of femicide is when a woman is killed by a man for no other reason than the fact that she's a woman."
"A relationship, such as husband and wife, for example, is that type of situation, and should not be diminished." 
Jennifer Dunn, head, London Abused Women's Centre 
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A condolence note sticks out of a bunch of flowers laid in front of a house where a woman was killed on Friday night in London, Ont. (Amanda Margison/CBC)

There are no names to be put to those involved in this tragedy. That of two teen-age siblings, a boy and a girl, witnessing their father battering their mother with an axe with the intention of killing her. Their identities remain protected for the simple reason that the children involved not have their identities revealed. Their trauma and suffering and how they will be affected for the rest of their lives takes no psychological professionalism to imagine. 
 
They can, at the very least, be spared the notoriety that accompanies such gruesome and heart-rending acts of tragic dimensions, losing both mother and father under circumstances beyond imaginable. 

Superior Court Justice Joseph Perfetto oversaw court proceedings in London, Ontario when the 55-year-old man pleaded guilty to second-degree murder. The Assistant Crown Attorney summed up the evidence related to the case; its immediate discovery and observations by the authorities involved. Although the family had lived at the address where the murder took place for some thirteen years, they were not known by their neighbours but for a passing recognition. 

The children, horrified witnesses to their father's deadly attack on their mother, had left the house by the time authorities arrived. The boy had called 911 to report the ongoing attack; his mother's screams heard in the call's background. The police arrival was within mere minutes of the call. The father was taken into direct custody at the scene, his blood-covered appearance speaking vividly to what had occurred.
 
It was reveled at the hearing that the man was convinced his wife had had intimate relations with another man. Before he committed the lethal act of murdering his wife, suspicion had been building in his mind for months. He felt doubtful that he had fathered his own son, attributing the boy's paternity to another man. He had earlier examined all his wife's electronic devices containing her personal data with the intention of discovering clues that would cement his suspicions of her.
 
This all culminated on the evening of March 12, 2022. At 6:10 the man and wife were in the house basement. The son, on the main floor, heard his mother call her husband's name followed by "thumping". The daughter heard her mother calling out, and when the children descended to the basement, they saw the nightmare of intimate murder unfolding. The children left the house following the call to 911.
 
When the police arrived at 6:28 p.m. and arrested the man, he conveyed the message that he wanted to speak to a lawyer, and translation would be a requirement. When two of the officers went into the basement they found the woman lifeless on the floor, severe injuries to her neck, and the blood-covered hatched near her body. 

Although the two officers made an effort at providing life-saving measures in the hope of reviving the woman, the injuries to parts of her upper body, head and neck proved to have been lethal. She was pronounced dead at the house. 

Second-degree murder carries a mandatory life sentence. But in Canada a 'life-sentence' is set at a maximum 25 years, with eligibility for parole decreasing time served, and sometimes by quite a margin. If there is ever a hint in even such cases of savage murder that the perpetrator suffered from a mental illness, they could be found not guilty of intent to kill, and/or of a state of mind unable to recognize the severity of their actions. 

The man's eligibility for parole relating to the length of his incarceration has yet to be determined. Parole eligibility can range between ten to 25 years. His wife will be  dead forever. His children's future with that memory seared like a phantom injury into their minds guaranteed to impact in both predictable and unpredictable ways. Yet Canadian law and Canadian courts are more attuned to the needs of the guilty than to their victims and how they have been impacted by the most serious of human rights crimes.

https://i.cbc.ca/1.6384587.1647287729!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/original_1180/billybrook-crescent.JPG?im=Resize%3D1180
A man and woman bought this home in 2009. On Friday, the man was charged with second-degree murder in the death of the woman. (Amanda Margison/CBC)

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Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Mind Blanking : Where Is My Mind?

"Mind blanking [is a mental state unlike a lapse of attention or wandering mind]."
"Our minds go nowhere because they seem to lack content."
"When the brain is in a high- or low-arousal state, a mind blank is more likely to occur." 
"[A part of the brain appears asleep], which may represent a state of 'local sleep', rather than outright sleep."
"The experience of a 'blank mind' is as intimate and direct as that of bearing thoughts."
Research team comprised of neuroscientists and philosophers
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A new study reveals intriguing insights into what happens when your mind goes blank. Researchers discovered that brain activity doesn’t stop; instead, it enters a state resembling “local sleep. The Economist

A new review challenges the assumption that people experience a constant flow of thought in their daily lives, contending through experimentation that the human mind absolutely can go 'blank' during conscious periods throughout the course of a day. A condition that may be slightly familiar to some, as when an individual is seen seeming to stare ahead as though arrested in thought,, eyes blank and when  they're asked 'what are you thinking?', become startled out of what seems like an absent moment, to which the response is invariably, 'nothing'. 

According to new research, moments occur when the human mind appears empty of content, when people are thinking of nothing at all. A newly explored and distinct mental state identified as "mind blanking".  Researchers report that mind blanking has a tendency to occur toward the end of long and demanding tasks requiring attention, such as exams; when people are sleep-deprived; or following an intense workout. So then, mind blanking is characterized as a common, daily phenomenon with links to states of arousal.
 
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PsyPost
The brain shows signs of 'deactivation' and an increase in sleep-like slow brain waves during a reported mind blank, when heart rates and pupil size decrease. The researchers speak of the experience as a "lack of conscious awareness", during which "the individual is not focally aware of any stimuli, either internal or external"; a potentially dangerous state should it occur during high-risk, inopportune moments, such as when driving a vehicle.
 
In experiments, people report feeling sleepier and more sluggish, leading to more errors on attention tasks moment prior to their minds wandering off "nowhere". Some individuals appear never to experience mind blanking, while adults and children with ADHD (attention deficient hyperactivity disorder) can frequently report the experience. One of the core symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder is that of "mind going blank". It can be related to strokes, seizures, traumatic brain injury and an "ultrarare" sleep disorder affecting teenage boys primarily, causing them to sleep up to 20 hours daily. 

What those 'blanks' represent is not entirely clear. However, "We sought to better understand mind blanking by parsing through 80 relevant research articles -- including some of our own in which we recorded participants' brain activity when they were reporting that they were 'thinking of nothing'", explained Athena Demertzi, of the University of Liege, Belgium. With a better understanding of what's occurring in the brain, an interesting strategy for dealing with anxiety negative thoughts or other unpleasant emotions could follow.
 
The review, under the title "Where is my mind? A neurocognitive investigation of mind blanking"  was published in the Cell Press journal, Trends in Cognitive Science

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"'I think, therefore I am' and 'I am, therefore I think'; channelling Descartes' Cogito; ergo sum goes both ways.""
"We challenge the latter by showing that people can be conscious without thinking about something in particular."
"Most of the time, by definition, mind blanking will go unnoticed, since there is no content associated with it. We didn't realize there was a blank."
"But sometimes, there are moments in your everyday life where we can introspect a bit about our own stream of thoughts and we can notice that there has been a gap [as when people walk into a room unable to recall how they got there, or why they're there].
"It's pretty frequent in everyday life."
"[There are moment during the day where parts of the brain start showing signs of sleeping, resulting in gaps and moments of mind blanking."
Study lead author Thomas Andrillon, cognitive neuroscientist, Paris Brain Institute
 

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Monday, April 28, 2025

Famine in Sudan: Where Is The Organization of Islamic Cooperation?!

"I think we're in dire straits here in Sudan."
"Severe acute malnutrition happens over time. It's where kids don't get enough nutrients…They're unable to fight infections like normal."
"They're unable to utilize nutrition like normal…And the majority of children who have severe acute malnutrition end up getting an infection and dying from it." 
"There was no food [his grandmother, Neamat Abubaker, told us]. At times nothing at all, not even water."
Dr. Mohammed Fadlalla, Al-Buluk Children's Hospital, Omdurman
 
"It was ground-breaking [ a channel for direct funding]."
"The only time that USAID had ever done this was with the White Helmets [humanitarian group] in Syria." 
"[Most of the kitchens had closed. Some are trying to get food on credit from local fishermen and farmers, but very soon] we expect to see a lot of people starving."
"I think we can shore up [the emergency kitchens]. But the reality is that [private donations] are going to have to do even more now, because even if humanitarian assistance resumes, it's never going to be what it was."
"These volunteers were challenging us to work differently, and we were responding. [They are] exhausted, traumatized and underfunded [and] we were scaling up to help them".
Andrea Tracy, a former USAID official, now with Mutual Aid Sudan Coalition fund
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Dr. Mohammad Fadlala (left) a Cincinnati native volunteering in war-torn Sudan with the Doctors Without Borders charity, is seen treating a severely malnourished child at the Al-Buluk Children's Hospital in Omdurman, in late January 2025.   CBS News

 President Trump's decision to slash the funding available through USAID, has stark consequences in many areas of the world. None more than in countries of majority Muslim rule, where constant outbreaks of conflict impact the populations. In Sudan, the conflict is Muslim versus Muslim; the Sudanese military fighting a revolt by its former partner, once known as the horse-mounted Janjaweed Arab militias that aided the former government of Sudan in its conflict with the pastoral people of Darfur. That was a war spurred by herders using the land for pasturage, and farmers farming the land.
 
The former Janjaweed has now become the Rapid Support Forces, comprised of Islamist fundamentalists often described and for good reason, as terrorist brigades. The civil war that ensued with the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces challenging one another for supremacy is a brutal, no-holds-barred conflict, and once again the people of Darfur are faced with potential genocide. Now, in Sudan, 25 million people have been internally displaced. Over half of the population now faces acute hunger.
 
In its third year, the war is considered by the United Nations to be the world's worst humanitarian crisis and aid groups agree as famine spreads throughout the land. In Darfur alone, 400,000 people were made homeless, hundreds killed as the paramilitary terrorists raid camps for displaced people. The U.S. provided $830 million last year in emergency aid to help 4.4 million Sudanese; more aid than any other nation has provided. Since the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development, Khartoum's devastation was completed.
 
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The community kitchens, like this one photographed in December, have provided a vital lifeline for many  Getty Images
 
Over 300 soup kitchens operated by Emergency Response Rooms, a network of volunteer aid workers closed. Leaving 600,000 Sudanese living in famine conditions, another eight million "on the cliff edge". According to the Trump administration, lifesaving aid is exempt from cuts. A State Department spokesperson relayed the information that four million people in Sudan, and 3.8 million refugees in neighbouring countries are given aid by the U.S. 

The question begs to be asked. Yes, the situation is horrible, dreadful, mind-numbing conditions for any population. Yet these conditions are increasingly common in many Muslim-majority countries where incapable and uncaring administrations exploit their vulnerable citizens, and focus on conflict, not civilized governance. Why is it in very particular the obligation of the West and most particularly, the United States to ensure that humanitarian aid flows to these desperate people whose governments ignore their needs and in fact, place them in these life-threatening situations?
 
Where in heaven's name is the Organization of Islamic Cooperation? A compendium of Muslim countries formed to support one another through their common Islamic roots. Surely they could organize missions, including military forces to intervene when their member-nations impose such conditions on their populations? The national collective wealth of the group alone is staggering, and why is some of that wealth not used to give humanitarian assistance to those of their member states badly in need of it? Why is it the West, democratic nations of the world, that these miserable countries at war depend on, and not their religious cohorts? 

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Tigrayan refugees collect food rations from USAID at Hamdeyat Transition Center near the Sudan-Ethiopia border in Eastern Sudan on Mar. 24, 2021. After Sudan was plunged into its own intramural war, the U.S. Agency for International Development supplied food to the grassroots self-help effort known as Emergency Response Rooms. In January, President Donald Trump ordered the aid stopped. Nariman El-Mofty—AP

 

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Sunday, April 27, 2025

Neither Nor, But Preferentially, Both

"K.S. is pleased with the Court of Appeal's decision, which is now the third unanimous ruling confirming that her gender affirming surgery is covered under Ontario's Health Insurance Act and the regulations."
John McIntyre, lawyer
 
"[K.S., who is in her early 30s], has experienced significant gender dysphoria since her teenage years, as well as physical, mental and economic hardships to transition her gender expression to align with her gender identity."
"The existence of different techniques to perform a vaginoplasty does not affect this conclusion. It was open to the drafters of the Schedule of Benefits to describe each specifically listed service in broad or narrow terms."
"Here the description chosen, 'vaginoplasty', is broad enough to encompass different techniques."
"As the [Health Services Appeal and Review] Board put it, a vaginoplasty without a penectomy is an insured service because it is still a vaginoplasty, a specifically listed service."
Ontario Court of Appeal 
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A transgender resident of Ontario who identifies neither as exclusively female nor male and whose wish it is to have both genitalia in nature assigned to either a man or a woman, has had her wish granted by Ontario's top court. And now the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP) has no choice but to cover the cost involved in a penile-retention vaginoplasty for this resident of Ontario, thanks to a unanimous decision by a three-judge panel of the Ontario Court of Appeal which confirmed a lower court's ruling that found the novel phallus-preserving surgery qualifies as an insured service under OHIP.
 
K.S., identified at birth as a male, had embarked on a legal battle with OHIP in 2022, when the provincial health insurer refused her application for a funding request to undergo surgery at a Texas clinic which specializes in constructing vagina, and sparing the penis. This is a medical procedure not available anywhere in Canada, much less in the province of Ontario. While making use of female pronouns, K.S. identifies as neither fully female nor fully male.
 
Because the proposed vaginoplasty would not be paired by a penectomy, OHIP argued the procedure, not specifically listed in its Schedule of Benefits, was not eligible for public funding. The requested surgery, OHIP argued, is furthermore considered experimental in Ontario, which also makes it ineligible for coverage. Dissatisfied with the ruling, K.S. applied to the Health Services Appeal and Review Board. In its turn the Board overturned the OHIP refusal of coverage with the argument that 'vaginoplasty' should be covered, irrespective of whether a penectomy as a separate procedure was included. 
 
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OHIP lost once more after appealing that decision to the Divisional Court, when the panel dismissed the province's appeal, declaring the surgery an insured service. Now, finally, the latest appeal saw the Appeal Court panel reject OHIP's arguments turning down the proposed surgery because it it is not recognized as an insured service, since removal of the penis will not accompany it. 

The original request to OHIP for prior funding approval for the surgical creation of a vaginal cavity and external vulva was submitted by K.S.'s physician; a request that clearly ssated K.S. did not wish a penectomy. Her doctor stated that because K.S. is "not completely on the 'feminine end of the spectrum", it was important for her to have a vagina while maintaining her penis. The Crane Center for Transgender Surgery in Austin Texas, "has an excellent reputation" for gender-affirming surgery, "and especially with these more complicated procedures".
 
The Appeal Court added that the World Professional Association for Transgender Health standards of care "expressly refers to 'penile preserving vaginoplasty' as a surgical option for some non-binary people", and also notes that "vaginoplasty 'may include retention of penis and/or testicle'." In finding for the plaintiff, the court ordered Ontario to compensate K.S.'s costs of $23,250. A financial burden that will include the cost of gender-affirming surgeries at the Texas clinic that range from $20,000 to $70,000 (U.S.), dependent on procedures undertaken. 

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Saturday, April 26, 2025

In the Spirit of Honesty, Integrity, Transparency

"[We had a] constructive [discussion both agreeing to begin comprehensive negotiations on a new economic and security relationship between Canada and the United States] as sovereign nations [immediately following the 28 April federal election in Canada]."
"Look, the president says lots of things, but the essence of the [shared telephone] discussion and where we moved the conversation to was exactly what I said."
"We talked about lots of things, OK? And what's important is the conclusions of the call, the results of the call, and those are exactly the same on the American side and the Canadian side."
"And those were that it was very constructive."
"Who can stand up to President Trump, who can build Canada strong, who has the experience in order to do that?"
"That's the crucial choice that Canadians need to make."
Liberal leader, Mark Carney
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U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had their first phone conversation on March 28. Sources tell Radio-Canada that Trump raised the idea of Canada as the 51st state on the call. (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters, Blair Gable/Reuters)
"I'm not their strategist, I'm not imagining wild conspiracies, but I can imagine that it serves them."
"Liberals are [juggling[ between pretending that Mr. Carney has extinguished the threat [of Trump annexing Canada] and regularly resurrecting that threat because fear has been their main argument at the start of the Liberal campaign."
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet 
Mark Carney, smug and self-confident that he will win Monday's general election to become elected Prime Minister of Canada, is accustomed to manipulating the truth to his advantage. He evades the truth, preferring to replace it with his version of events that are likelier to portray him as he feels he should be viewed; superior, entitled and exceptional. In that way, as in so many others he is the mirror-image of the man he intends to replace, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

Mr. Carney has already established a track record of unethical behaviour; the most notable one to be brought to the attention of an electorate prior to the ballot, is his having ethically invalidated his doctorate by the expedient of casual plagiarism. More latterly, he denied having had any hand in moving Brookfield Asset Management headquarters from Canada to the United States, at a time when he was still its head. Nor seeking out a tax haven for Brookfield to avoid paying taxes directly in Canada. 

Now it has been revealed that in his March 28 telephone conversation with President Trump, the threat of annexing Canada to the United States had come up, even as Mr. Carney later claimed publicly that President Trump "respected Canada's sovereignty". Radio-Canada had reported that Mr. Trump had indeed brought up the idea of Canada as the 51st state during their exchange. Mr. Carney sought to exploit his version of events to portray himself as a strong leader whom the American President respected enough to avoid speaking of annexing the country.
 
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Liberal Party Leader Mark Carney says his phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday morning was very ‘cordial’ between two leaders of two sovereign nations. Carney says Trump respected Canada’s sovereignty both in his private and public comments on Friday. CBC News

"To be clear, as I've said to anyone who's raised this issue in private or in public, including the president, it will never happen", Mr. Carney said at an election stop in British Columbia; that under his leadership the threat to annex Canada by economic force would never come to pass. What Mr. Carney also failed to reveal about the conversation with President Trump was his having alerted the American president that as part of his electoral campaigning, he planned to use the threats as fuel to inspire fear in Canadians to enhance his claims that he was the right person to lead Canada.
 
Accordingly, in a cooperative gesture, Trump's own read-out of the call with Carney saw him dial back talk of Canada as the 51st state. And nor has he spoken dismissively of Carney as the "governor" of Canada. He obviously finds more in common with Carney's business/banker approach to government than that of Justin Trudeau's commitment to diversity, equity and inclusion. If nothing else, Trump reacts to blustery confidence and he hasn't done his homework on Carney for whom DEI, a green agenda and a commitment to quash Canada's natural resources in energy are a driving force.
 
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt denied a change of stance had occurred on the annexation of Canada; that President Trump still "believes that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the 51st state of the United States of America". During a signing ceremony at the Oval Office last week Mr. Trump said that Canada "would cease to exist as a country" if the U.S. stopped buying its goods and that Canada "as a state, it works great"
"He has these things in his mind. This is not news."
"He raises it all the time. But then the question is, what's going to be done with it? And does he understand where we stand?"
"More particularly, where do I stand? He is under no illusions."
Mark Carney, aspirant to the leadership of Canada
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U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that 25 per cent tariffs against Canadian-made cars could go up. He also expressed his desire to make Canada the 51st state after a period of relative quiet on his annexation threats. CBC News
 
 The latest and newest revelations of Mr. Carney's failure to respect the truth and relay it to the public at a time when voters are entitled to know exactly what it is they are voting for and for whom as a candidate most likely to act in Canada's best interests during an economic slowdown of recession proportions, during a time of provincial alienation in response to the Liberal government's decision-making impeding their decision making on energy extraction, when society in general has been politically fractured, and the country's social services and universal health care network is facing collapse, marks a failure of leadership.
 
Instead, during the campaign Carney has portrayed himself as a Canadian hero during the economic downtown of the 1980s when as Governor of the Bank of Canada, he lead Canada out of a recession; when in fact it was not he but then-Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and the Canadian banking system that saved Canada. During a recent press conference, the man who has never been elected to public office, but who aspires to govern a nation, when asked about the need for ethics and transparency laws in government, responded that he would have no problems distinguishing between rules and conduct:
"If there were specific proposals, obviously we would look at them."
"But what's important is bringing that spirit of honesty, the highest integrity, and my track record is consistent with that, but also that commitment that goes with it to transparency."
Liberal leader Mark Carney 
"I wasn't there [so cannot verify the heads-up Carney gave to Trump]."
"But what's clear is that we will stand up for our sovereignty, we will never be an American state, and we will focus on what we can control, which is to reverse the disastrous Liberal economic policies that Mark Carney advised Justin Trudeau to take."
Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre
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Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, when asked about a Radio-Canada report saying U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned ‘51st state’ during a call with Prime Minister Mark Carney, said his Liberal rival will have to explain, and he reiterated his call to defend Canada’s sovereignty and focus on things Canada can control. Carney previously said Trump ‘respected Canada’s sovereignty’ during the conversation.   CBC News

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Friday, April 25, 2025

Vladimir, STOP!

"I am not happy with the Russian strikes in KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing."
"Vladimir, STOP!"
"5000 soldiers a week are dying."
"Let's get the Peace Deal DONE!" 
"I thought it might be easier to deal with Zelenskyy. So far it's been harder, but that's OK. It's all right."
U.S. President Donald Trump
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"The principle of Ukraine's territorial integrity is not something that can be negotiated."
"This was the position taken last week and reiterated yesterday in London in a meeting of a similar format."
Christophe Lemoine, French Foreign Ministry spokesman
Kyiv was struck by Russia with an hours-long barrage of missiles and drones with a dozen people killed and 90 injured. So much for the progress being made by the Trump administration's efforts for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. But a rare rebuke by Trump to Putin was at the very least, refreshing when Trump's frustration led him to lash out at Putin. This, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy got similar treatment for his intransigence in refusing to allow Moscow to take full possession of Ukrainian territory ill-gotten by Putin's illegal invasion. 

President Zelenskyy was accused of prolonging the "killing field" when he refused to surrender the Crimea Peninsula to Putin, to achieve a peace agreement. Occupied by Russia which annexed Crimea in 2014. Since February 2022 Mr. Zelenskyy has said repeatedly that recognizing occupied territory as Russia's represents a Ukrainian red line. Ukraine agreed to a U.S. ceasefire proposal 44 days ago, as an initial step in a negotiated peace, Mr. Zelenskyy reminded Trump, yet attacks by Moscow had simply continued.
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Trump's irritation with Moscow is evident in his reaction, given that the American president has stated repeatedly that Russia -- the conflict's aggressor -- is more willing to get a deal done than is Ukraine. In his negotiations with both leaders in the conflict, Trump's focus has been  on which of the two has leverage. Putin, he decided, has "the cards", and Zelenskyy does not, he has repeatedly said, taking steps in a cooperative relationship with Putin, a man he has long admired. A strongman attracted to others like himself.
 
Norway, a NATO member and supporter of Ukraine, with its 198-kilometre border with Russia, has reason to fear that Russia's  territorial ambitions will not stop with Ukraine. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store wrote in a social media post his intention to underscore during talks with Trump that "close contact between Norway and the USA is crucial. We must contribute to a lasting and just peace in Ukraine"
"There is only one answer we are waiting for: Does President Putin agree to an unconditional ceasefire?"
"The Americans' anger should focus on just one person: President Putin."
"[Putin should] stop lying [when he claims to want] peace." 
French President Emmanuel Macron
Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is set to visit Moscow for a new round of talks with Putin; representing their fourth meeting since January. NATO leaders will meet in the Netherlands in two months' time. France's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lemoine, asked whether France is in agreement with comments by Trump that Ukraine's position was responsible for prolonging the war, responded that Ukrainians demonstrated they are open to negotiations. Russia, on the other hand, continues its strikes.
 
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Thursday, April 24, 2025

Prognostication: Canada's Future

"[A report from an obscure government department warned of the potential that many Canadians may] face the very real possibility of downward social mobility [by 2040]."
"The report paints a terrifying picture of a spiral of economic depression and cost inflation."
Conservative Leader, contender for Prime Minister, Pierre Poilievre
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"Thinking about future scenarios helps decision-makers understand some of the forces already influencing their policy environment."
"It can also help them test the future readiness of assumptions built into today's policies and programs."
"Finally, it helps identify opportunities to take decisions today that may benefit Canada in the future."
Policy Horizons Report
The report in question hazards hypothetical situations that could arise in Canada by 2040, none of them reason to anticipate a bright future for the country and its citizens. Indeed, the hypotheses lead to the very real potential of young Canadians feeling forced to move elsewhere to find a more promising future. Among the hypotheses is the grim prediction that matters may regress to the point where the economic situation facing young Canadians may lead them to begin foraging and hunting to meet their basic food needs; back to the pioneer past.
 
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Policy Horizons is a government office, part of the Department of Employment and Social Development Canada, founded in 1996 to engage in strategic foresight. Policy Horizons, according to a department spokesperson, analyzes the "emerging policy landscape, the challenges that lie ahead, the opportunities opening up", as well as "building foresight literacy and capacity in the public service". The idea is for trained minds to engage in exploring ways an unfolding future could take us, to inform current government priorities. 

Such enhanced strategic foresight as a thoughtful, practical exercise in viewing, determining, analyzing and reaching conclusions that reflect serious thought is not unknown in the business world. Policy Horizons in its mission to aid government decision-making on critical issues reflects methodologies used by both the private sector and other national governments. The hypothetical futures it foresees become an exercise in aid of preparing government for all possible future trends.
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"Inequality between those who rent and those who own has become a key driver of social, economic and political conflict."
"Social relations no longer offer pathways to connections or opportunities that enable upward mobility."
"Job actions and strikes may disrupt economic development."
"People could rethink what 'prosperity' means, or 'fulfilment'. They may reject conspicuous consumption. They may focus on policies that promote human flourishing."
"This could include health care, housing, the environment, and education for its own sake."
Policy Horizons Report 
In the report, it is pointed out that the hypothetical 2040 Canada becomes a society that "increasingly resembles an aristocracy", with one of the only ways of flourishing would be through inheritance where intergenerational wealth passes down in wealth transfer. Where post-secondary education no longer leads to social mobility; a future educational structure too expensive for any but the wealthy and where the attainment of that level of academic knowledge becomes a status symbol of the "elite".
 
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Where the labour market becomes more limited with the rise and advancement of Artificial Intelligence, most markedly in creative fields, where reliable, steady, well-remunerated employment becomes a dream of the past.  Without a steady income Canadians will become increasingly unlikely to be able to afford housing and will be forced to share housing with others, living together under a single roof.
 
At the very present, housing costs which have spiralled in the last decade have become a signal defining issue of the current 2025 election. An Ipsos poll from April 2024 concluded that 80 percent of Canadians believe that home ownership is now for the wealthy, with 72 percent claiming they have surrendered any hope of ever owning a home of their own. 
 
That future, hypothetical Canada would inherit a less predictable economy, wealth highly concentrated, a depressed consumer economy with people having far less disposable income. While younger Canadians may choose to move abroad, migrants may select countries other than Canada, the result of which would be imperilled social services, too costly to be borne by the depressed tax base. 
"They may attack policies believed to favour older cohorts, who benefited from the era of social mobility."
"In extreme cases, people could reject the state's legitimacy, leading to higher rates of tax evasion or other forms of civil disobedience."
"The content of this document does not necessarily represent the views of the Government of Canada, or participating departments and agencies."
Policy Horizons Report 
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Wednesday, April 23, 2025

The Vision of President Donald Trump

"[Volodymyr Zelenskyy derailed negotiations to end the war in Ukraine while a peace deal was] very close."
"It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s [his refusal to surrender Crimea to Russia's territorial expansion] that makes it so difficult to settle this War."
"We have to get a deal with Zelenskyy. I thought it might be easier to deal with Zelenskyy. So far, it’s been harder."
U.S. President Donald Trump
 
"We conveyed our position and emphasized that an immediate, complete, and unconditional ceasefire must be the first step toward launching negotiations aimed at achieving a just and lasting peace. 
"We expressed hope that this aligns with the vision of President Donald Trump."
Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak
 
"It’s important that each side was not just a participant but contributed meaningfully."
"The American side shared its vision. Ukraine and other Europeans presented their inputs."
"There’s nothing to talk about here, [allowing Russia to retain Crimea after its annexation cannot be countenanced]. This is against our constitution.”
"And we hope that it is exactly such joint work that will lead to lasting peace." 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
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AFP
"I think it will be extraordinarily difficult, bordering on political suicide, for him [Zelenskyy] to commit to paper on things like giving up Crimea."
"Ukraine is not going to recapture Crimea anytime soon. Ukraine is unlikely to be a NATO member anytime soon."
"There might be some formulation [of a deal] that effectively kicks those into the long grass. The terms of any deal at the moment are not going to be particularly favorable to Ukraine."
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences, Royal United Services Institute, London
The meeting on Wednesday last of Ukrainian and European officials in London, faced with a fast-moving and  uncompromising U.S. proposal that Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea be recognized and the front lines be frozen as part of a peace agreement, can hardly be considered in Ukraine's favour; rather the aggressor nation that without cause invaded Ukraine and for years has been butchering its infrastructure, while moving ever closer to the territorial advantages it plans on, is being  rewarded by the U.S. administration. 

Donald Trump wants it all his way and he wants it NOW. While in essence, patting Vladimir Putin on the back for doing a good job as a major aggressor, tyrannizing Russia while clobbering Ukraine with its larger military and greater military arms, causing deaths on both sides, using tactics clearly in defiance of international norms, it is Russia who will walk away with the smug assurance that its underhanded and illegal tactics served it well, while Ukraine will be sent home to nurse its grievances, left to the wolves.
 
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Apartment block in Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia after deadly Russian missile attack
 
The best that Ukraine's allies could hope for was to assure security guarantees and reconstruction programs for Ukraine in exchange for territorial concessions demanded of the world's superpower. A superpower that manipulated Ukraine to convince it to sign an agreement handing over its rare minerals to enhance the technological future of the United States in its race with China for rare earth minerals needed for communications systems, electric vehicle production and the advanced development of artificial intelligence. Ostensibly obligated to sign over its natural resources to 'pay' for the billions in military goods received from the U.S.
 
Washington is prepared to formally recognize annexed Crimea as legitimate Russian territory, and to lift sanctions under a future accord. In turn, Moscow would end hostilities in Ukraine even while it has the battlefield momentum and considerable advantages in troop strength and weaponry. Ukraine is under great strain, with the pressure piled on it by American expectations that its territorial sovereignty determination be brought to heel. Kyiv anxious not to displease Washington, yet at the same time, insistent on the dignity of its sovereign rights.
 
French, German and British negotiators have actively involved themselves in the peace talks, hoping to press Ukraine's case that any deal include security guarantees and postwar reconstruction programs. In the best possible scenario, reconstruction to be paid for out of frozen Russian assets which amount to some $300 billion. At the same time and however reluctantly, both European and Ukrainian authorities privately acknowledge that it is unlikely Kyiv could regain control of the Ukrainian territories Russia has co-opted.
"There is concern that Trump is trying to push the Ukrainians and hasn't been tough enough on Russia."
"The ultimate question now is, what does Ukraine get in exchange for giving up part of its territory?"
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director, Eurasia Group
The American proposal presented in an outline in talks last week in Paris is recognized by Ukrainians as Washington's final offer prior to a decision to leave the peace process. The sudden turnabout by the United
States through President Trump's accommodation with Russia and his cavalier treatment of Ukraine has left little room for Kyiv to manoeuvre even as Moscow cleverly manipulates the U.S. presenting itself as the true arbiter of a peace process, and Ukraine reluctant to sue for peace.
 
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President Donald J Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office at the White House on Friday, Feb 28, 2025 (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

"The downgrading is significant] in view of Zelenskyy's rejection of Russia's maintaining control of Crimea as part of any deal]."
"[Rubio and Witkoff's absence] suggests that Washington is increasingly disinterested in drawn-out, multilateral negotiations."
"This is not just about diplomacy fatigue. It also signals a hard pivot: The U.S. is not positioning itself as a neutral mediator."
 Bence Németh, senior lecturer, defense studies department, King’s College London
 

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Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Beware The Deadly Power of Unreasoning Racist Hatred

"You came to inflict terror, to take innocent lives, and to shatter a community that had done nothing but stand for kindness, unity and love."
"You slaughtered fathers, mothers, sons and daughters." 
"Now, as you begin the rest of your life locked away, remember this: your mission failed."
"You did not divide this city, you strengthened it. You did not silence its voice, you made it louder. You did not instill fear, you inspired unity."
"El Paso rose, stronger and braver."
Judge Sam Medrano, Texas District Court 
El Paso shooter Patrick Crusius arraignment
El Paso Walmart mass shooter Patrick Crusius, 21, from Allen, Texas, accused of killing 22 and injuring 25 arraigned,in El Paso, Texas, U.S. October 10, 2019. Mark Lambie/Pool via REUTERS/

The racist attack in El Paso on August 3, 2019 represents one of the deadliest mass shootings in the history of the United States, which has experienced more than its share of such events and all too frequently. The gunman, responsible for the deaths of 23 people at an El Paso Walmart years previously, on Monday pleaded guilty to capital murder.
"Are you pleading guilty because you are guilty, and for no other reason?" asked Judge Medrano. "Yes, your honour", came the quiet response.
 
The killer, now 26 years of age, agreed that he had deliberately targeted Hispanics when he opened fire in a Walmart store crowded with shoppers for the weekend in the border city' shoppers who originated in both the United States and Mexico. Local prosecutors had taken the death penalty out of contention, to enable Crusius to plead guilty in his shockingly deadly death spree. Wearing a striped jumpsuit, shackles and a protective vest in court, Crusius is to be automatically sentenced to life in prison, with no chance of parole.
 
The reason the death penalty was set aside, relates to the compassion expressed by a number of relatives of the victims. They simply wished for the case to be concluded and out of their lives forever, according to County District Attorney James Montoya. One of Crusius' lawyers explained that his client had been diagnosed with schizoaffective disorder, sometimes marked by hallucinations, delusions and mood swings. That he had suffered most of his life from debilitating mental illness.
 
El Paso Times

For his part, Crusius offered no explicit regret or apology for having ended the lives of 23 people and wounding 22 others. Those that died that fateful day ranged from a 15-year-old high school student, to elderly grandparents; immigrants, city bus driver, teacher, tradesmen, and Mexican nationals on a routine shopping trip over the border into the United States.  The hundred or so family members of the victims were given the opportunity to deliver victim impact statements; dozens of whom had expressed emotional statements at an earlier opportunity.
 
Crusius, never having expressed remorse, nor asked for forgiveness had been sentenced to 90 consecutive life terms at the federal level when he pleaded guilty to hate crimes and weapons charges. He was 21 years old, when he drove to El Paso from his home near Dallas, a 1,100 kilometre distance, after posting an online racist rant, warning of a Hispanic "invasion". Arriving at the Walmart he opened fire with an AK-style rifle both inside and outside the store.   
"[Crusius] became consumed by extreme ideologies found online."
"He brought violence and terror to a place of peace. He shattered lives and forever changed the landscape of El Paso..."
"We offer our deepest condolences."
"Patrick will leave prison only in a coffin on God's time."
Joe Spencer, a Crusius lawyer 
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Memorial, El Paso Times

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