Our Warming El Nino Oceans

"[This new record being set  for hottest temperatures in the world's oceans is] very troubling." 

"An ocean this warm destabilizes weather patterns and threatens food security, economic prosperity and marine life."

"A warmer ocean is not our friend."

Jane Lubchenco, oceanographer, former chief of U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 

"This is yet another sign of our climate system under strain and the ocean under immense pressure."

"When we have a warmer ocean such as we've had in Europe this summer, it amplifies the impact of heat waves because you don't get the cooler nighttime temperatures with the sea breeze coming off the ocean when the ocean is very warm."

"Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead, Copernicus climate service, Europe

 

"The thing that makes my heart sink is that this starts so early and it's so out-of-normal that you know when it hits its peak it's going to be unprecedented."

"The ocean is not supposed to do this. It's just that there is no normal anymore."

"[With hotter water], not everybody is hit equally, obviously, but the whole system collapses."

"It's like when you pull out the rug from underneath an economy. The whole thing collapses. Some sectors may do a little bit better but, overall, everybody suffers."

Boris Worm, biology professor, Dalhousie University, Canada 

A very strong El Niño developing in the southern Pacific Ocean will disrupt global weather patterns in the months ahead, but climate scientists say it's not something we can attribute to the heat waves and wildfires that raged across the northern hemisphere this summer, like the ones in British Columbia's interior earlier this month. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

 

This year's El Nino has already reached the peak of other recent such appearances, and it's continuing to grow and expected to reach unprecedented levels when it does eventually peak. With the current El Nino, the oceans will keep heating  up, and it is  expected to peak at some time between November and January. That's abnormal since most of the Southern Hemisphere is ocean, and the world's sea surface temperature generally peaks around March and April as the southern summer draws to its close. But not this year.

 

El Nino is nature's temporary warming of portions of the Pacific Ocean which warps weather, raising global temperatures. This is a weather phenomenon recognized as being responsible for most of the heat that develops in the world's oceans -- along with long-term warming resulting from burning coal, oil and gas. This year, ocean waters have warmed by 0.8C, seeing the world's oceans at their hottest temperatures on record last weekend. That's bad news, but even worse is that they're entirely likely to keep warming. 

 

Coral in Tubbatah Reef in the Philippines.  Adobe

 

Aquatic lifeforms are placed under stress with warming water. The supersized El Nino of this year is proving to be of greater concern than the record previously set in March of 2024. A warming ocean becomes more acidic with less oxygen, inimical to the health of its sealife. Ocean currents become altered along with changed weather patterns. Storm systems are enhanced by the warming oceans, becoming wetter and producing larger storm surges.

 

According to Dr. Bruno, heat-sensitive corals now are roughly one-fifth of the levels of 1990. Some species of coral -- not the longer-lived staghorn corals -- are adapting to the hotter water, although they're 'weedy'. The current situation of warmer oceans and even warmer yet as time moves on and the heating persists, is predictive of collapsed fisheries resulting in universal food shortages.The Peruvian anchovy fishery, considered the largest world fishery, generally collapses during El Nino.

 

Corals from the Galápagos Islands contain chemical signatures that scientists were able to use to trace a 1,000-year history of El Niño events.   Greg Asner/DivePhoto.org

 

The food web becomes altered, since larger fish are able to swim off to cooler water to escape the heat, as far as halfway across an ocean. "Anchovies can't leave so they just don't reproduce, or [they] starve", explained Dr. Worm, affecting both the humans and the seabirds who depend on them. The presence of more jellyfish is being observed off Europe, stated Dr. Bruno, believing something similar will be seen on the East Coast of the United States.

 

"Jellyfish are often opportunistic and they like warm waters. So yes, I would expect them to do a little bit better", added Dr. Worm. And when's the last time you saw jellyfish on the dinner menu? "As long as we depend on a healthy ocean for our safety, prosperity and well-being, these record-breaking sea surface temperatures portend even greater challenges for us all", added Rick Spinrad, another former NOAA chief. 

"It's frightening. We're not even in October yet."

"You know, usually the Caribbean peaks at like late September, early October."

"And I think next year in the Southern Ocean, the Great Barrier Reef, yeah I'm really worried about what's going to happen in the southern hemisphere in February, March."

John Bruno, marine ecologist, University of North Carolina 

A satellite map from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows sea surface temperature anomalies recorded on Aug. 20, with hotter than average temperatures stretching across the El Niño region toward the west coast of South America. (NOAA)

Wait For It

"[With wars around the globe in the past few years, people haven't paid much attention to climate change] because the world was on fire in different ways."

"The world is now on fire again with climate change, in a way that's increasingly difficult to ignore."

"It's going to keep getting worse."

Zeke Hausfather, climate change, Berkeley Earth

 

"The driver of the record warmth is climate change in the background."

"And it's a much larger -- much, much larger -- contribution than El Nino, which is just a tenth to two-tenths of a degree on top of that long-term trend."

Zachary Labe, climate scientist, Climate Central

 

"European heat waves are not in isolation. There's also been shocking heat waves in North America."

"There's been shockingly hot conditions in South America as well. There's been devastating heat waves in India."

"There's always heat waves somewhere in the world, sometime, but what is very unusual for Europe for this particular year is the frequency and extent of the heat waves."

Samantha Burgess, global strategic lead, Copernicus Climate Service 

UK and France prepare for another heat wave as western Europe has its 3rd hottest year on record so far. PBS

 

North America and Europe are experiencing wildfires while deadly heat waves hover over cities as the world's oceans have become hotter than ever recorded for this time of year. Spiked global temperatures and warped weather everywhere are attributed to a strengthening El Nino. In far too many areas of the globe, weather is hurtling the world toward a record-breaking summer of mind-bending heat. 

 

To the present, climate records demonstrate that 2026 up to now is the third-hottest year behind 2024 and 2025. In time, scientists believe chance is that by year's end, 2026 could become the hottest year on record. Should that come to pass, 2026 won't, climate scientists seem to believe, wear its hottest-year crown for long. With 2027 on the horizon bets are that the new year-to-come will take that hottest-year award as a reflection of a climate on steroids.

 

According to Dr. Hausfather, a 35 percent chance exists that 2026 will eclipse 2024's hottest record year. Still, according to his calculations, odds increase almost monthly, steadily rising from 7 percent in March. The daily sea surface temperature of the world was a tie from May forward with 2024 and since June has been recording increasing heat daily. Since oceans cover over 70 percent of the Earth's surface a month-and-a-half lag exists between heat in oceans eventually reflecting in the global heat temperature.

 

The ocean is getting hotter, and that’s not a good thing. Photo: Unsplash

 

At present, some 82 percent of the world's ocean surface is overheated this year, with marine heat waves, according to Europe's Copernicus climate service. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted a month earlier of a 66 percent chance that 2025 would realize the fourth-hottest year and a 0.l percent chance to be No.1 for warmth by the end of the year. Those odds are expected to rise as the agency completes its July analysis.

 

El Nino causes a natural temporary warming of equatorial Pacific, heating up the average temperature of the globe, warping weather extremes across the planet, and this year El Nino is forecasted to become the strongest in recorded history. Releasing pent-up heat in the ocean, trapping heat as a result of greenhouse gases, with 90 percent going into the world's seas, even more heat is set to be released. This is a situation that keeps setting new record highs.

 

Wildfires, heat and extremes that dominate the summer of 2026 represent what scientists have warned of, resulting from the burning of coal, oil and gas. Traditional industrial pollution creates soot and smog which cool the planet and mask greenhouse gas-triggered warming, and it is on the decrease according to Dr. Hansen, with the climate reacting to greenhouse gases in a much more accelerated manner than scientists anticipated. 

 

The Bald Range wildfire burns near Summerland, British Columbia. Craig Milton

 

"[This is what scientists have long been warning about.] These are vivid pictures of not just the future, which is what we used to say, but on the whole of what climate change is doing."

"There's no question that climate change has increased the risk of wildfires."

"There's no question that the climate change increased the probability of really hot, nasty, even  unprecedented summers around the world."

Michael Oppenheimer, climate scientist, Princeton University