Ruminations

Blog dedicated primarily to randomly selected news items; comments reflecting personal perceptions

Friday, January 17, 2025

Capital Punishment by Decree for Illegal Miners in South Africa

"If the police had acted earlier, we would not be in this situation, with bodies piling up."
"It is a disgrace for a constitutional democracy like ours."
Johannes Qankase, local community leader, Stilfontein, South Africa
 
"It has been a tough few days, there were many people who [we] saved but I still feel bad for those whose family members came out in body bags." 
"We did all we could."Mandla Charles, volunteer rescuer
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Forensic service workers carry dead miners in blue body bags out of the mine   AP
 
South African authorities have come  under fire for their decision to cut off food and supplies to illegal miners operating in the Buffelsfontein Gold Mine, a tactic meant to "smoke them out". It is the South African mining union that has condemned the government for its pitiless decision not to come to the aid of the illegal miners who were trapped in an abandoned gold mine. The miners, in a desperate situation, were left to their own devices to try to save themselves.

Finally local community groups took action on their own to launch rescue attempts after government authorities declared they had no intention of assisting the hundreds of miners trapped far  underground under conditions that would lead to their deaths, stating their decision was based on the fact that as far as the government was concerned, the illegal miners were 'criminals' not worthy of being saved from their own folly.

The standoff between the miners and government authorities have been ongoing for months, with no solution on the near horizon. The situation is dire, and has to the present cost the lives of 87 miners trapped in the gold mine. Athlenda Mathe, a spokesperson for the national police, affirmed that 78 bodies had been retrieved, resulting from a court-ordered rescue operation.
 
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Forensic Service workers carry bodies in blue body bags taken out of the mine on January 14, 2025   AP
 
Another 246 survivors were pulled out of the mine since Monday when the operation was initiated. Nine additional bodies were recovered prior to the rescue operation forced by court order on the government.
Those of the miners whose lives were lost are thought of as having died of starvation and dehydration, although no causes of death have yet been officially released.

But the fact is that South African authorities cut off food and supplies to the miners last year in the Buffelsfontein Gold Mine. Accusations have been levelled against both police and mine owners of having dismantled a pulley system whose function was to enable entry to the mine and to send supplies down to the miners.

Close to 2,000 miners were thought to be working illegally in the mine near the town of Stilfontein, southwest of Johannesburg, since August of last year. Many resurfaced on their own over the last few months, according to police. All of the survivors were arrested as they emerged. They were exhausted, emaciated and could barely make their way unassisted to waiting ambulances.

Aside from the ambulances to convey the barely functioning survivors, a convoy of mortuary vans arrived at the mine to carry away those who had succumbed. Prior to the court-ordered official rescue operation, over a dozen children exited the mine on their own. Most of the illicit miners are foreign nationals living illegally in South Africa. They come from Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Lesotho, and their presence is deeply resented by South Africans.

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Cage used to rescue miners from abandoned mine   AP

Once more a court ordered authorities to allow food and water to be provided to the miners, last year.  Just a week ago, another ruling forced authorities to launch a rescue operation. The South African government is the very entity that brought a case against Israel to the International Criminal Court, accusing the Jewish State of violence bordering on 'genocide' against Palestinians in Gaza, following a massacre of Israelis by the Gaza-ruling Hamas terrorist group.

Israel stands accused of failing to provide the necessities of life to the Gaza Strip's population under fire as a result of the Hamas terror group installing their command centres, weapons depots and launch sites directly within heavily populated civilian enclaves in Gaza. Ironically this is the height of sanctimony by South Africa's government in view of their lack of humanity in addressing the trapped miners, choosing to deprive them of life as fitting punishment for their illegal mining operations.

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Rescuers carry a rescued miner       AP

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Saturday, January 13, 2024

Hamas Charter and the International Criminal Court

"Today, we were witness to one of the greatest shows of hypocrisy in history, compounded by a series of false and baseless claims [brought by South Africa acting as the] legal arm of the Hamas terrorist organization."
"[South Africa] utterly distorted the reality in Gaza following the October 7 massacre and completely ignored the fact that Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israel, murdered, executed, massacred, raped and abducted Israeli citizens ... in an attempt to carry out [a] genocide."
"[Pretoria's case at The Hague] seeks to allow Hamas to return to commit the war crimes, crimes against humanity and sexual crimes they committed repeatedly on October 7, as its leaders have stated."
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Haiat
 
"Israel has transgressed article two of the [Genocide] Convention, committing acts that fall within the definition of genocide. The actions show a systematic pattern of conduct from which genocide can be inferred."
"Nothing will stop the suffering except an order from this court."
South African attorney Adila Hassim
 
"The violence and the destruction in Palestine and Israel did not begin on October 7, 2023."
"The Palestinians have experienced systematic oppression and violence for the last 76 years."
South African Justice Minister Ronald Lamola 
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Police officers disperse protesters during a demonstration outside the Peace Palace in The Hague on Thursday, where Israel is facing allegations before the International Court of Justice launched by South Africa of 'genocidal acts' in Gaza. (Robin Utrecht/ANP/AFP/Getty Images)
 
Violence in South Africa is rife, and incitement to violence by Black South Africans afflicting the White population follows a trajectory that brought ruin to Zimbabwe in the early 2000s by Robert Mugabe and which South Africa now sees fit to follow suit. Zimbabwe, once known for its land production was able to export its agricultural products abroad. When its 'land reform' operation went into full swing and white farmers saw their heritage farms expropriated and their properties handed out to friends and colleagues of the administration, agriculture failed and the country faced food shortages, while inflation soared and its currency became worthless.

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On a bare hillside near Polokwane, in South Africa's Limpopo Province, stand more than 2,000 white crosses. Crosses on a hillside have memorialized farmers killed in raids. Seventy-five were added last year. (Foreign Correspondent: Alex Barry)

Corruption is rife in South Africa. There has been an epidemic of murder by Black South Africans against White SA farmers. This is the government that chose to align itself with a Palestinian terrorist group further solidifying its known hostility toward Israel. The lavish slander that South Africa's government has embarked upon in its zeal to see the Jewish state humbled and shamed by bringing a charge of genocide against Israel to the United Nations' court of justice turns reality inside out, naming the victim as the aggressor and the aggressor as the wronged-against. 
 
Lawyers for South Africa demanded of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that it order an immediate cessation of the Israel Defense Forces' operation in the Gaza Strip aimed at destroying the Hamas terror group.

That the South African Justice Minister would refer to the re-establishment of a formal, sovereign, world-recognized Israel on its ancient ancestral Judaean land as a threat against the existence of 'Palestinians' by its very established presence speaks volumes about the corrupted morals of the African country's executive administration. 
 
Palestinians who refer to themselves as 'victims' of the establishment of Israel, their 'nakba', have consistently threatened and violently attacked Israel; the 'oppression' of which they speak is Israel's self-defence against their lethal violence. A forced, constant vigilance to deter further attacks.

For Israel, the past 76 years have necessitated constant guard against ongoing Palestinian violence, incited by their leadership. For Palestinians those 76 years have been lost opportunities to finally establish their own sovereign nation alongside that of a neighbour. 
 
Their leaders refused their portion of the Partition plan offered by the United Nations, and at every meeting since then to negotiate a peace agreement between Israel and the 'Palestinians' their leaders have refused despite Israeli concessions; refusing as well to offer any concessions of their own in exchange.
 
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Outside the 'Peace Palace' in The Hague, Netherlands, where the ICJ court sits, thousands of pro-Israel supporters of Israel took part in a protest organized by local Jewish and Christian groups who waved flags and held posters of the Israelis who were taken hostage or murdered during the Hamas/Islamic Jihad/PFLP/civilian Palestinians orgy of mass rape, slaughter, mutilation and destruction on October 7, 2023 the aftermath of which was the IDF's invasion of Gaza for the direct purpose of exacting justice, through destroying the ability of terrorism out of Gaza to repeat such horror.

The ICJ's purpose as the principal judicial offshoot of the United Nations is to deal with disputes between states. The International Criminal Court (ICC) on the other hand, prosecutes individuals. It is anticipated that the full proceedings are likely to go on for years; even so an interim order could be issued in a matter of weeks although the ICJ has no enforcing ability. A judgement ruling against Israel would have the effect of increasing international pressure to withdraw from  combat operations in Gaza.

South Africa's initiative to charge Israel with violations of its obligations under the 1948 Genocide Convention by its intention "to destroy Palestinians in Gaza as a part of the broader Palestinian national, racial and ethnical group", was highly praised by Hamas. Irony of ironies, the 1948 Genocide convention was drafted following the Holocaust for the purpose of prevention; the destruction or intent to destroy "in whole or in part, a national ethnical, racial or religious group". 
 
The very intention, needless to say, expressed by the Hamas charter.

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Israel supporters take part in a demonstration outside the ICJ. (Robin Utrecht /ANP/AFP/Getty Images)

"The IDF is doing its utmost to minimize civilian casualties, while Hamas is doing its utmost to maximize them by using Palestinian civilians as human shields."
"Israel is fighting Hamas terrorists, not the Palestinian population, and we are doing so in full compliance with international law."
"[The Israel Defense Forces drops leaflets, makes phone calls urging civilians to leave conflict zones] providing safe passage corridors, while Hamas prevents Palestinians from leaving at gunpoint and often with gunfire."
"Our goal is to rid Gaza of Hamas terrorists and free our hostages. Once this is achieved, Gaza can be demilitarized and de-radicalized, thereby creating a possibility for a better future for Israel and Palestinians alike."
Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu



 
 

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Thursday, January 11, 2024

Islamist MPs Nibbling Away At Canada's Moral Compass

"I call on Canada to support South Africa's application to the International Court of Justice regarding the current conflict between Israel and Hamas and the impact this conflict is having on the people of Palestine."
Member of Parliament Salma Zahid, Toronto area MP

"[The International Criminal Court prosecution of Israel, brought by South Africa claiming that Israel was engaged in a genocidal war against Palestinians is] an outrageous and cynical abuse of the principles underlying the international legal order that was set up after the Second World War."
Former Canadian Supreme Court Justice Rosalie Abella
 
South Africa's shift on Israel: From Mandela-era acceptance ...
"Just last year, President Cyril Ramaphosa was preparing to host Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in Johannesburg following frequent one-on-one meetings between the two."
"When it became clear that a court would rule that South Africa would have to arrest Putin in terms of a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes related to his invasion of Ukraine, the government relented, and Putin attended the summit virtually."
"Prior to that, South Africa had refused to arrest then Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who was charged with a litany of war crimes. Among these were, to quote the ICC, 'five counts of crimes against humanity: murder, extermination, forcible transfer, torture, and rape; two counts of war crimes: intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking part in hostilities, and pillaging; three counts of genocide: by killing, by causing serious bodily or mental harm, and by deliberately inflicting on each target group conditions of life calculated to bring about the group’s physical destruction, allegedly committed at least between 2003 and 2008 in Darfur, Sudan'."
The Brenthurst Foundation: Ray Hartley, Greg Mills

 
Supporters of Hamas demonstrating outside the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands. Photo: Reuters/Jehad Shelba
 
Member of Parliament Zahid, known as a longtime critic of Israel was one of a number of Liberal Members of Parliament who a month ago managed to convince Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to join forces with others who sat fit in the United Nations General Assembly to call for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Clearly the message of a ceasefire was aimed directly at Israel; Gaza is not an established 'state' and nor would the terrorist group that rules Gaza be bound by an humanitarian urge to cease and desist. Israel's agreement to a ceasefire would not put an end to the Hamas rocket bombardments, a well-known reality.

But that's the direction that the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau chose to take, marking an extraordinary move by Canada, to abandon its allied relationship with the Jewish State to satisfy elected Muslim Members of Parliament who make no secret of their bias against Israel. While the current government has not yet expressed any position on the ICC case which began today, both the Palestinian 'ambassador' to Canada and South Africa's high commissioner in Ottawa publicly urged Canada to support the argument of genocide.
 
 Yasser Arafat and Nelson Mandel meet at Gaza International airport in Rafah, 19 October 1999
| JOHANNESBURG Ties bound in struggle   image: AFP
South Africa's argument is that the widespread bombardment of Gaza by the Israel Defense Forces and Israel's siege on Palestinians in Gaza "are genocidal in character". Israel's bombardment of Gaza has a direct and distinct purpose; to eliminate any future opportunities for the Hamas terrorist group, along with that of Palestinian Islamic Jihad to ever again commit atrocities against Israelis as they did on October 7 when both, along with Palestinian civilians surged across the border into southern Israel in the thousands to rape, torture, mutilate and murder.

Committing atrocities so foul it's difficult to imagine human minds even imagining them, much less engaging in them to exact pain and remorseless anguish on vulnerable girls, women, children, and entire families burned to death in their homes. That deadly pogrom and the abduction of 250 elderly people, infirm and ill, residents of border towns and kibbutzim, infants and teens, foreign farm workers and other civilians, along with Israeli soldiers constituted a crime against humanity, not the response by Israel to extinguish terrorism in Gaza geared to Israel's destruction.

Others in the Liberal caucus, including MPs Marco Mendicino and Anthony Housefather describe the court application by South Africa as "baseless and unconscionable" for the very reason that Israel's offensive is a defensive one, in its efforts to prevent terrorists out of Gaza from repeating such horrendous attacks -- murdering over 1,200 people in a single day -- leaving the remains of so many dead bodies strewn about that identification of the dead is still being processed, three months later.

South African, in the meantime, sees nothing amiss itself in maintaining friendly contact and support by those responsible for a magnitude of killing amounting to genocidal slaughter condemned by the same ICC. Soon after launching the ICJ proceedings against Israel, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa welcomed the leader of the Sudanese Janjaweed Arab group responsible along with the Sudanese government for the genocide that took place in Darfur two decades ago, once again under the Rapid Support Forces perpetrating crimes against humanity in Sudan, massacring Black Sudanese farmers, and committing sexual violence.
"Hypocrisy has, it would seem, no limits when it comes to South Africa’s foreign policy. Exactly a week before the country was due to accuse Israel of genocide before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on January 11th, President Cyril Ramaphosa played host to Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, a Sudanese warlord whose Janjaweed militia and its successor are accused of genocide and war crimes in Darfur. Adding to the insult, Mr Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, later visited the genocide museum in Kigali, Rwanda."
"Just as jarring was a ceremony on December 5th marking ten years since the death of Nelson Mandela, a man seen by the world as a symbol of reconciliation and peace. A Hamas delegation led by Bassem Naim, a senior official, joined Mandela’s grandson, Mandla, in a march through the streets of Pretoria, the capital. At their destination—the statue of Madiba (as Mandela is honorifically known) that stands proudly outside the president’s office—they laid a wreath with Lindiwe Zulu, the social-development minister."
The Economist
Exterior view of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands, Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
Exterior view of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
 

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Sunday, March 05, 2023

Swimming up the Food Chain; Marine Biology

Two killer whales, swimming side by side, breach the surface of the water.
Port and Starboard are two orcas that are suspected to have been hunting great white sharks off the coast of South Africa. (Alison Knock/South African National Parks)
"Great whites and sevengills are the most important top predators in their ecosystems, with a key role in keeping their environments clean and diverse."
"The abrupt loss of such a large number of sharks will inevitably change how the food web works and the behaviour of the hunted sharks, whose numbers are already low."
"They likely initially learn by experience when first predating a new species. Once they know where the liver is, or any other body part they are specifically interested in, they will remember it forever and become more efficient."
Alison Kock, marine biologist
An orca leaping out of the ocean. Almost its entire body is above water. A seabird flies nearby.
An orca jumps out of the water in the sea near Rausu, Hokkaido, Japan. New footage out of South Africa shows killer whales hunting and eating a great white shark. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters)

"When I saw the footage, of course, it just confirmed everything. And as haunting it is to see the behaviour, one can't help but be awed by it as well. It's really quite a novel piece of natural history to observe."
"We had carcasses that were washed up, ripped open, livers missing. We had sightings of orcas in the area, [followed by] disappearances of the white shark."
"I always refer to the orcas as being like the wolves of the ocean. They've kind of got the edge on this because, you know, they're co-ordinated and they've got teamwork, whereas the white sharks are on their own. They're caught by surprise and they're basically just panicking."
"What does everybody associate an orca with, typically? We all think of Free Willy, right? Or Sea World? And we think cute and cuddly, and obviously very charismatic."
"They are prolific hunters. They're extremely efficient. They're rather savage actually, because they're so good at what they do."
"White sharks have this very apex predator role, and they're quite feared. But now they've definitely been knocked off the top pedestal here."
Shark biologist Alison Towner, South Africa's Rhodes University
A woman kneels next to the rotted, mangled corpse of a great white shark on the beach.
Alison Towner, a shark biologist, studies a mangled great white shark carcass that washed ashore in South Africa. She has long suspected orcas are behind these shark killings, and now she has video proof. (Hennie Otto/Dyr Island Conservation Trust/Marine Dynamics)

They've become infamous in marine circles, a pair of adult male killer whales in South Africa. They're broadnose sevengill sharks (named for the number of gill slits they have). They've been under observation by marine biologists for quite a few years. One is named Port for a dorsal fin that leans to the left, while the other has been named Starboard, with a fin leaning to the right. And they've gained notoriety as elite predators.

As it happened, last week they launched a killing spree when they attacked 17 sharks, targeting them solely for their livers. The two orcas ate the livers of the sharks and left the carcasses to wash up on shore. This is their modus operandi, it's what they do, working together, a well-coordinated killing machine, the killer-whale duo of renown. First observed in 2014, five years later the duo was credited with upsetting marine life in False Bay, South Africa.

In response to the two whales' actions, great white sharks in their hundreds, normally found in the area and which have become a tourist attraction, have left the area. The two killers put on a show last week at Pearly Beach. Marine biologists are in general agreement that their activities are overturning the marine hierarchy.

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In the absence of the great whites, the broadnose sevengill appears to have moved up the marine food chain. They have become more populous and as such have become easier prey for the orcas. Alison Kock has been studying Port and Starboard for years. Photographs taken of the surgically predated sharks indicate the capability of identifying the precise location of the liver, by the orcas. 
 
A shark liver is rich in oils, fats and high in calories, accounting for up to a third of the animal's body weight.The Orcas target their bite precisely between the pectoral fins of the sharks, in the process removing the livers, and leaving the other organs uneaten. 
 
What's more it has been observed that the orcas have transmitted their learned skills in shark-hunting to other orcas. Simultaneously, the great whites have made themselves scarce in the area, fleeing for their lives, as it were. "How many more times can it happen before the entire population is displaced? It's really hard to predict what will happen", noted Dr.Towner.

A great white shark's head sticking out above the surface of the water, its toothy mouth wide open.
A great white shark swims in Shark Alley near Dyer Island in Gansbaai, South Africa. The deadly sea creatures, it appears, are no longer the top predator in this part of the ocean. (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

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Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Community Grief in South Africa

"We are so heartbroken, guys. We lost one of our family members, a child wo was doing Grade 12 [final year] this year. We can't accept it."
"By the look of the child she has no visible injuries."
Yandiswa Ngqoza, aunt of one deceased youth

"I'm so devastated. We are so angry."
"People were complaining about the tavern. No one was happy about it. The community wanted the tavern to be shut."
Maxhabiso Sibotoboto, 50, grandfather

"It is either something they ingested, which will point to poisoning, whether it's food or drinks, or it is something they inhaled."
"We are ruling out a [panic] stampede completely." 
Unathi Binqose, spokesperson, Eastern Cape provincial community safety department
Crowds gathered Sunday as police investigated inside the Enyobeni Tavern near East London in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. (Reuters)
"On Sunday morning at about 4am police from the Scenery Park Police Station received a report of the lifeless bodies of the teenagers at a local tavern in the area. Upon arrival police found seventeen bodies inside the building."
"It was later established two more died at a local clinic, one died en route to hospital and another died in hospital. Nine of the deceased are female while twelve of the deceased are male. "
"Police have since registered an inquest into the death of the teenagers."
Police spokesperson Brigadier Tembinkosi Kinana
Investigation by police when the bodies of 21 teenagers were discovered in a tavern in East London, South Africa showed clearly there were no marks of violence on the dead. What led to their deaths appeared baffling to authorities who at first thought that something might have panicked the young people leading them to die of asphyxiation resulting from a stampede. Attention then speculated that the deaths might have been caused by ingesting something poisonous.

As yet no evidence of the reason for the sudden deaths have been revealed but a forensic team is working on the mystery. No comfort, however, to the grieving relatives of the young people, most of whom were celebrating the end of the school year in a tavern that was known to serve underage teens. One of the victims of whatever it was that took those lives was only13 years of age. The consensus at this point is that something they all ate, drank or smoked had been lethal.

Binge-drinking is evidently a common youth-culture problem in the area. Occasionally resulting in medical emergencies and/or injuries. So there have been previous reports of such incidents. All of which paled in comparison to the discovery of 21 young people dead in an inexplicable manner. People living at Scenery Park located on the periphery of East London had urged authorities to close the Enyobeni Tavern because of its reputation of serving to underage kids. It took this disaster of 21 dead to have its license revoked.

There are photographs that were circulated on social media showing the lifeless bodies of young people scattered across the floor of the tavern. Some were photographed motionless, lying across tables and couches. Outside a morgue holding the bodies, a news conference featuring Police Minister Bheko Cele paused as tears swept his countenance Sunday. The audience joined him in their mutual grief for the deaths of so many young people. In an interview preparatory to the publication of a toxicology report, Unathi Binqose speaking for the provincial community safety department revealed that hookah pipe wre visible in CCTV scene footage. 
"We call on parents and legal guardians not to abdicate their responsibility to their children or minor children entrusted in their care. As a parent myself, I am pained by this tragedy and cannot imagine losing a child in this manner. We grieve with parents and families at this hour and ask for your patience in getting to the facts around this tragic event."
"We are saddened by the loss of young lives, future leaders of our country, future breadwinners for their families, and for all the investments made by their families in them that now have evaporated in an instant."
Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane
A body being removed on Sunday from a bar in East London, South Africa.

Associated Press

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Thursday, December 23, 2021

Early Consensus on Omicron? Not Quite!

"There is something going on ... in terms of the difference in the immunological response for Omicron vs Delta."
"[Findings suggested breakthrough infections and reinfections from Omicron were] less severe [and that immune protection from T-cells and B-cells] mediated [Omicron's] progression to severe disease [despite diminished antibody protection]."
"It's about what [it] means in terms of absolute numbers as, if the numbers are so big it can still cause a substantial public health problem even if, per case, the risk of severe disease is less."
Professor Cheryl Cohen, epidemiologist, University of Witwatersrand, South Africa
 
"It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease."
Henrik Ullum, director, Statens Serum Institut, Denmark
Chart showing that research from South Africa finds Omicron cases are less likely than other variants to require hospital admission

According to health-care data out of South Africa, Denmark and the United Kingdom, findings appear to indicate by separate research teams that fewer cases of severe disease will erupt from Omicron, despite its higher rate of infectiousness, than the previous COVID-19 iteration, Delta. Despite that finding, there remains insecurity of knowledge about the ever-mutating, ever surprising SARS-CoV-2 virus to the point that these same researchers caution that health services can still be strained owing to the new variant's high degree of infectiousness.

All are in agreement that unvaccinated groups remain the most at-risk for infection. And that the proportion of all cases developing severe disease remains lower than with other variants, despite Omicrons breakthrough infections and reinfections causing mild symptoms. Omicron now accounts for a major proportion of COVID-19 cases in a growing number of countries, including the United States. The study carried out by South Africa's National Institute For Communicable Diseases found among those who tested positive in October and November, Omicron was 80 percent less likely to be admitted to hospital than Delta cases.

The same research team released a second analysis controlling for vaccination status, finding that once admitted to hospital Omicron and Delta cases from recent weeks held similar likelihood of progressing to a serious condition. Over 10,000 Omicron cases formed the basis for the analyses, including over 200 hospital admissions. Research out of Denmark indicated that among those who tested positive between November 12 and December 15, Omicron cases appeared three times less likely for hospital admission than cases with other variants, while cautioning that outbreaks among  younger groups could skew data.
 
Chart showing that so far, Omicron cases in Denmark skew younger than cases from other variants
 
Omicron -- in the absence of evidence for any intrinsic reduction in severity -- is not precluded from resulting in less severe outcomes at the population level, given that a greater share of cases are among people with some protection against severe disease through prior infection or vaccination. "Due to Omicron's higher immune evasion, this pattern will persist in a population-level assessment", explained Professor Samir Bhatt, at University of Copenhagen.

The British study analyzed data from PCR-test confirmed cases in England between Dec.1 and Dec.14, concluding that "Overall, we find evidence of a reduction in the risk of hospitalization for Omicron relative to Delta infections, averaging over all cases in the study period". According to Imperial College researchers, risk of any visit to hospital with Omicron was between 20 and 25 percent lower than with the Delta strain. Britain reported over 100,000 new cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, the first time since wide-spread testing was available.

People who had received at least two vaccine doses remained substantially protected against hospitalization, even if protection against infection has largely been lost against the Omicron variant, according to their estimates. Denmark on Sunday introduced a suite of measures to contain Omicron's spread; among which was theatre and museum closures and capacity limits in bars, restaurants and shopping centres.

A drop-off in severity could make the decision of countries like Britain and the United States not to impose restrictions "just about tenable", according to Professor Peter Garred, clinical immunologist at Copenhagen's Rigshospitalet, Denmark's largest hospital.

Technicians in Durban, South Africa, conduct antibody testing in a laboratory at the African Health Research Institute
Technicians in Durban, South Africa, conduct antibody testing in a laboratory at the African Health Research Institute Technicians conduct antibody testing at the African Health Research Institute in Durban, South Africa Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg
"[Policymakers should be a] little careful about making the narrative that it's more mild [because it would be] some weeks [before the variant's impact on hospitals becomes clear]."
"I fear that because of the infectiousness of Omicron ... what we see right now will be very different n just about two weeks' time."
Professor Thea Kolsen Fischer, head, virus and microbiological specialist diagnostics, Staten Serum Institut, Denmark

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Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Omicron in South Africa

"At this early point, we believe there is hope that the severity is lower. [However], we should not be lulled into any type of complacency."
"[The higher risk of breakthrough infections compared to Delta also means masking, distancing and] caution [and] prudence [remain important]."
"There is no reason to panic in this regard, [infection of children remaining low], without question."
"[South Africa is seeing a steep trajectory of new infections] indicating very rapid spread. This is clearly a highly contagious variant of SARS-CoV-2."
Dr.Ryan Noach, CEO, Discovery Health
Vaccination centre in Sandton, South Africa
Getty Images
 
Discovery Health, the largest private health insurance administrator in South Africa, has released an analysis based on over 211,000 positive COVID-19 test results; 41 percent derived from adults who had two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Some 78,000 of those test results were attributed to the newly-discovered Omicron infections occurring between November 14 and December 7, when the variant was first noted to be in circulation.

Researchers studied the Pfizer real-world vaccine effectiveness against Omicron infection hospital admissions and the risk of reinfection for those people known to have been previously infected with SARS-CoV-02 [with circulating antibodies]. Scrutiny concluded that people infected with Omicron seemed less likely to develop severe disease in comparison to adults who had been infected in the first wave of COVID in South Africa.

The risk of hospital admission was 29 percent lower for adults, once adjusted for age, sex, underlying health conditions and vaccine status. The encouraging drop in severity suggests an "apparent de-linking" of infections with hospitalizations, according to a slide presentation given at a press briefing. During the first three weeks of South Africa's Omicron wave, hospital admissions and death from infections rose rapidly, while at this point both have decreased their steep ascent.

All this, while keeping in mind that South Africa has a high rate of background immunity, meaning in the first waves to strike the population infections were widespread. Fully 72 percent of the population in Gauteng -- the outbreak epicentre and province where Omicron was first identified in November -- is felt to have been previously infected, in particular throughout the Delta wave. 

What remains unclear at this juncture is how Omicron will evolve in other countries with lower vaccination or lower rates of prior infections. "We have to see what happens in other parts of the world before we can make a call on this" Glenda Gray, president CEO of the South African Medical Research Council, cautioned. Should a surge emerge it would overwhelm health systems through sheer case volume, Dr.Noach added.
 
He stressed that the single most important intervention is vaccination. The evidence is that those who are vaccinated experience milder infections; primarily it is the unvaccinated that end up in hospital and needing supplemental oxygen. Children under 18 years of age appear to have a 20 percent higher risk of hospitalization, yet child admissions to hospital remain very low.

Most COVID infections in children admitted to hospital are picked up incidentally during routine screening when children present for problems unrelated to COVID, according to anecdotal reports. During the study period, children were 51 percent less likely as opposed to adults, to test positive for COVID. Most children experience mild symptoms: sore throat, congestion, headache and fever, resolving within three days.

In the current Omicron wave, two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech provide 33 percent protection. representing a significant drop from the 80 percent protection in earlier waves, but the vaccine appears to be providing 70 percent protection against severe complications requiring hospital admission. "Whilst protection against hospital admission reduced from the highs of 93 percent in South Africa's Delta-driven variant, 70 percent is still regarded as very good protection", concluded the investigators.

That level of protection held in all age groups, in people aged 18 to79. For those previously infected with COVID, reinfection risk appeared significantly higher compared to earlier variants -- those infected with Delta face a 40 percent relative risk of reinfection with Omicron, according to data suggestion; a possible function of waning antibodies

The infection  appears to have a shorter incubation period (three to four days). A scratchy or sore throat the most common early symptom to appear, similar to earlier waves. Nasal congestion, dry cough and muscle aches and pains are other typical features of Omicron onset, with lower back pain a hallmark symptom. But there appears to be less respiratory distress; leading to lower admission numbers to ICUs in comparison to previous waves. 

Chart showing the third and fourth waves in South Africa

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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Is Omicron Evading Immunity?

"All [U.K.] systems and teams are on standby to run the analysis, but my sense is we are still a long way from that number [the requirement for an accurate analysis to have at least 200 Omicron-infected individuals for an effective study]."
"So we depend on South Africa [to provide an earlier analysis given their large and growing number of Omicron-infected population]."
Meaghan Kall, lead epidemiologist in COVID-19, U.K. Health Security Agency

"Viruses do not inevitably evolve to become less virulent over time. If this has happened with Omicron -- and it's too early to tell whether it has -- it would be a matter of good fortune."
"Many viruses do not attenuate [reduce in force] over time. Influenza remains far worse than a common cold. Measles, even more so. Smallpox, worse yet."
"This is unlikely to be a factor for COVID, [the virus becoming less lethal over time] where death occurs weeks after the transmission causes."
"To paraphrase and generalize [the study], virulence is often not so much a matter of evolutionary fine-tuning as a matter of s--- happens."
Professor Carl Bergstrom, theoretical and evolutionary biologist, University of Washington, Seattle 
People wearing personal protective equipment pick up a suspected COVID-19 patient

Medics at an infectious-disease unit in South Africa, where a new strain of COVID is spreading quickly.  Credit: Alet Pretorius/Gallo Images/Getty

The world sits on tenterhooks, awaiting word on whether the latest mutated SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron, is more virulent than its predecessors. Virulence denotes the capacity of a pathogen to inflict harm on any it infects. It is Omicron's potential for damage at a steeper level than the currently most infectious strain, Delta, that grips the painful imagination of health experts and the governments they represent, to fully understand the new threat before them, presaging their population-protective responses. 

Should the investigation into the properties of the new 'variant of interest' turn out to be relatively mild, the current restrictions imposed speedily on news of its presence and spread, are certain to be revoked. Should the variant present as more transmissible, more deadly, the world has good reason to cringe in distress. All the more so should it prove it can bypass the protection the current vaccines are noted for, as a lifeline to the future.

To arrive at a fairly definitive answer to the questions revolving around Omicron, scientists require "several hundred" confirmed Omicron cases that they could track from the time of infection to its finish.  This is a process whose timing and revelations thereof lie in the spike region of the virus now spreading in numbers throughout southern Africa and beyond. According to early reports from South Africa, hospital cases rose sharply in the province most affected, quadrupling from 134 to 580 in two weeks' time.

And on the other hand, news from primary care doctors in South Africa speak of symptoms in Omicron patients being unusual, but mild. Since it is yet early days that assessment may be altered as the virus spreads into older age groups. At present, however, nothing appears to be particularly frightening as far as symptoms and early outcomes are concerned. With hard data missing for now, evolutionary biologists have been explaining the type of evolutionary pressures facing the virus, and how they may impact humanity.

First off, they have cautioned there is no reason to believe that gains in the virus transmissibility equates to a lessening of its virulence. Professor Bergstrom, as an example, warns against the thought that viruses evolve to become less virulent "to keep their hosts alive and thereby transmit more". The Alpha and Delta variants are both more transmissible and more dangerous than was the original virus that they overtook. In the process, the natural reproduction rate of the virus grew from a median estimate of 2.79 in 2020 to 5.08 with today's Delta.
 
Pedestrians in London
Pedestrians wearing face masks against the coronavirus walk along Regent Street in London, Nov. 30, 2021.   (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)
 
And as such, risks of ending up in hospital in the U.K and dying has commensurately increased with the evolved virus. Alpha and Delta, on the other hand emerged when immunization achieved through natural infection aftermath and also vaccination was at a lower state than at present. High immunization, including vaccinations on the increase worldwide has resulted in the viruses' selective pressures altering the way it evolves.   

Given the number of mutations that have evolved in Omicron's spike it seems the virus has focused on evading human immunity. What has also been realized by investigators is the randomness exhibited by the virus. Viral evolution can be "short sighted", according to an academic paper dating back to 1994, and highlighted by Dr.Bergstrom, with pathogens becoming far more dangerous with no advantage gained to the pathogen as a result. Bacterial meningitis, he points out, a classic example.
 

 
Travellers receive tests for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at a pre-departure testing facility, as countries react to the new coronavirus Omicron variant, outside the international terminal at Sydney Airport in Sydney, Australia, November 29, 2021.  REUTERS/Loren Elliott
A number of countries are tightening travel restrictions over fears about the new COVID-19 variant called Omicron. Image: REUTERS/Loren Elliott
"Viruses kill host cells and damage host tissues when replicating [within the human body]. Thus, a pathogen that is better at replicating within hosts, spreads more virions in the environment, and hence transmits better and generally tends to be intrinsically more virulent."
"A virus replicating in the upper airways could be highly transmissible yet fairly benign to its host. [But] a viral strain replicating within organs [lungs, kidneys] is expected to cause extensive damage."
"If we're unlucky, Omicron's ability to [re]infect immunized hosts doesn't significantly impact its high replication rate [-and the damage it causes to host tissues]."
"If we're a bit lucky, its ability to [re]infect immunized hosts does reduce its replication rate, and hence would be expected to cause, on average, less severe symptoms, send fewer people into hospital and reduce fatality rates."
Francois Balloux, director, UCL Genetics Institute, professor of computational biology, University College London

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Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Early Days on a Newly-Identified Coronavirus Variant, C.1.2., South Africa

"[The mutations on the virus] are associated with increased transmissibility [and an increased ability to evade antibodies]."
"It is important to highlight this lineage given its concerning constellation of mutations."
"We are currently assessing the impact of this variant on antibody neutralization [in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals]."
Research study: KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, South Africa
 
"It has only been detected in around 100 genomes, a very low number."
"It's still a very small percentage, but again we are really keeping a good eye on that. It has all the signatures of immune escape."
Tulio de Oliveira, director, Krisp (KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform)
Prof de Oliveira, from KRISP, says his team has seen multiple samples of viral re-infection

The newly-identified COVID-19 mutation named C.1.2. variant was identified in the provinces of Mpumalanga and Gauteng, South Africa in May. The new mutation, by mid-August was found in six or the nine South African provinces. But it is not at this point restrained to South Africa, having appeared as well in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius, Portugal, New Zealand and Switzerland. At this early stage it has become a world traveller soon perhaps to present as a seasoned world traveller.

SARS-CoV-2 has long since demonstrated its penchant for swift re-location and the world's geography is its oyster. All viruses undergo mutations over time, and COVID-19 has proven itself to be particularly skilled in creating mutations which the world medical community consider to be of 'concern', quite apart from hundreds of others that are of little concern. It's when the virus moves efficiently into the territory of greater communicability that alarm is raised, and this one has those characteristics.

For the present, in South Africa -- and around the world -- it is an earlier variant that now has created new waves of transmission globally with new wave spasms; the worrying Delta strain first identified in India -- and in South Africa, Delta represents over 80 percent of new cases in a country where only a 14 percent immunization rate has as yet been achieved. 
 
Once the World Health Organization classifies a variant of interest with properties of more severe transmissibility, they become a variant of concern.

In the mid-2020s during the first wave of the virus in South Africa, COVID-19 mutated into the C.1. and soon dominated as a more contagious virus from its original  lineage; C.1. mutated further to become C.l.2., evolving to its present form, passing through between 44 and 59 mutations from the Wuhan original virus.

Back in May the new variant was recognized as accounting for 0.2 percent of the genomes sequenced in South Africa, which rose to 1.5 percent in June, and a month later rose to 2 percent. The current research undertaken to assess the variant's impact on antibody effectiveness is expected in a week, according to Dr. de Oliveira. 

Still, the scientists have no wish for South Africa to be credited as the crucible where these variants originated; having stressed that despite the country's advanced ability to sequence the genomes of the virus to enable identifying new strains, they might conceivably have arisen elsewhere in the world and migrated to South Africa. 
Detection and frequency of the c.1.2 mutated sars-cov-2 lineage in South Africa
"Based on our understanding of the mutations in this lineage partial immune escape may be possible, but despite this, vaccines will still offer high levels of protection against hospitalization and death."
"We expect new variants to continue to emerge wherever the virus is spreading. Vaccination remains critical to protect those in our communities at high risk of hospitalization and death, to reduce strain on the health system, and to help slow transmission. This has to be combined with all the other public health and social measures, so we advise the public to remain vigilant and continue to follow COVID-19 protocol by: ensuring good ventilation in all shared spaces, wearing masks (which cover your nose, mouth and chin), washing or sanitizing your hands and surfaces regularly, and keeping 1.5m distance from others as much as possible. These non-pharmaceutical interventions are still proven to prevent the spread of all SARS-CoV-2 viruses."
 
Yahoo, New York Daily News

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Wednesday, April 28, 2021

The Miracle Cave, South Africa

"What we have here in the cave are milestones of these very dramatic events in human evolution."
"I can't think of any other site I know of, certainly not in sub-Saharan Africa, that has a complete sequence of two million years of human occupation."
"We can't say whether these people were actually making the fire, or whether they were just using fire. But it's still a very momentous moment in human evolution and development."
"Because once you have fire, it opens a whole set of new things that you can do -- like protect and warm yourself, create light and cook food."
Liora Kolska Horwitz, researcher, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Natural History Collection

"It's really interesting to understand how our species evolved with time."
"Every evidence and clue that can shed light on very early histories is very fascinating ... it's a great feeling to be part of this."
Ron Shaar, Professor of Geology, Hebrew University Institute of Earth Sciences

"So there are traces of fire, but how is the fire being used? There are stone tools, but what were they being used for?"
"Can we draw out more of the lives of these people at different points in time?"
Michael Chazan, co-director, Wonderwerk Cave project, University of Toronto
Wonderwerk Cave, paleomagnetic dating
Sampling for dating     Wonderwerk Cave Research Project

In Afrikaans, the language of South Africa-dominated Dutch the cave named Wondewerk is translated to English as Miracle Cave. A place of ancient geology where protohumans found refuge in humanity's primordial history. Ancient as in two million years ago when occupation of the cave by humans has been verified by a team of archaeologists in a collaboration between researchers from University of Toronto and Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

The immense cave in North Cape Province, South Africa, has attracted countless excavations and exploratory visits from the international community of archaeologists for the past 80 years. The cave is extensive, estimated at 140 metres in length, and as a result of its presence as a geological environmental area of protection where humans could control the menaces that lurked outside the cave from entrance by predators it was a site of some importance over countless eras of human existence.

Sedimentary layers examined by researchers render a picture of how human evolution devolved, explained Liora Kolska Horwitz, one of the co-directors of the Wonderwerk Cave expedition. A project that has continued for over fifteen years of discovery. Evidence of Oldowan tools have been found in the oldest layers of the sedimentary layers in the cave. These are, for the most part, sharp stone flakes and simple tools devised for chopping.

Wonderwerk Cave, excavation
2013 Excavation    Wonderwerk Cave Excavation Project

Early hand axes have been uncovered within newer layers merely a million years old. Burnt bone, burnt stone tools, sediment and ash attest to the use of fire -- all exciting, revelatory discoveries -- yet discoveries that while answering some puzzles of human existence in the long distant past, open up new questions that answers are sought for. 

And while it's clear that the earliest hominids to appear on Earth occupied the Wonderwerk Cave, there is ample evidence of far more recent occupation, where European farmers who travelled to Africa as colonial occupiers of a vast, richly endowed land, made the cave their temporary shelter while in the process of building farm steads in the early 1900s.

How long each succeeding group over the aeons remained, to account for the past two million years of human existence is unclear, but the exploratory revelations thus far revealed stun Earth Sciences professor Ron Shaar, lead author of the study. Dr. Horwitz theorizes that the cave may also have acquired an additional status beyond providing safety and shelter; a reputation as a place of spirituality.

That value, held by local communities might have imbued the cave with spiritual dimensions "from the beginning of time". Its vast size alone identified it as a landmark people invested with great meaning, and kept returning to. In the geography it occupies it is a geological anomaly. There are few rock shelters or caves in its location, making it unique in a myriad of ways.

Hunters would also recognize the site as a place to search the landscape, looking out as it does onto a plateau. Continued collaboration between archaeologists, geologists and allied scientists in an effort to determine precisely how hominids interacted with the Wonderwerk Cave will provide ample opportunities for ongoing investigations by the research community at large.
 
Wonderwerk Cave, view of the cave
Entrance to Wonderwerk Cave   Wonderwerk Cave Excavation Project

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